Area Forecast Discussion
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305
FXUS62 KTAE 111918
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
318 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Convection is developing across the Florida Panhandle and into the
western Florida Big Bend. Most of this activity is developing just
ahead of the sea breeze front supported by light southeast flow.
Expect storm development through the afternoon and into the early
evening to remain largely focused within this zone, though an
isolated storm is possible across Southern Alabama and into
Southwestern Georgia. Storms should dissipate an hour or two after
sunset with mostly clear skies overnight. The exception to this will
be over the marine area where storms will likely develop after
midnight. Temperatures will continue to be warm, generally in the
lower 70s inland with mid 70s at the coast.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The tropical wave trying to get itself organized off the east coast
of FL north of the Bahamas will likely not have much success as it
tracks west-southwestward across South FL and into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico by Friday evening. The wave will pass west of our
longitude on Saturday. Meanwhile, the front over the Ohio Valley
will push southeastward into central GA and southern AL Saturday
night. Sensible weather on Friday will be similar to today with the
upper ridge largely suppressing convection and allowing temps to
reach the lower to mid 90s. Our position to the east of the tropical
wave and the approaching front will increase PoPs for Saturday with
highest PoPs near the front.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
The elongated east-west oriented ridge axis will still be in place
at the start of the period. However, it will begin to break down
early in the work week as a long wave trough begins to amplify into
the Southeast. This trough will help push the front currently draped
across the Ohio Valley  toward the Gulf Coast. It is still uncertain
just how far south the front will make it before stalling. There
appears to be model consensus that there will be enough energy
upstream in the long wave trough to induce weak waves on the front
that will help inhibit its southward progress. The proximity of the
boundary through much of the period will result in unsettled
conditions with above normal PoPs for the most part. Max temps will
correspondingly be generally below normal from Monday onward.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through much of
the period with thunderstorms in vicinity this afternoon of TLH/ECP.
Toward daybreak on Friday, MVFR vsbys will be possible at
DHN/ECP/VLD before VFR conditions return for all sites by 13z.

&&

.Marine...
A very weak pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place. This
will keep winds and seas well below any headline criteria.

&&

.Fire Weather...
No fire weather concerns at least through the middle of next week.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals over the next few days are expected to be below
normal and not have an impact on area rivers. However, QPF is
expected to increase next work week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  94  74  93  72 /  10  20  20  40  30
Panama City   76  91  77  90  76 /  10  20  20  40  30
Dothan        72  94  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  50  30
Albany        73  95  73  92  72 /  10  30  20  50  30
Valdosta      71  94  72  92  71 /  10  30  20  40  20
Cross City    71  93  71  92  70 /  10  20  20  30  20
Apalachicola  75  90  76  88  76 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...WOOL






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