Area Forecast Discussion
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886
FXUS62 KTAE 221947
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
347 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Heat Wave to Continue Through the Weekend...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The TAE 12Z sounding showed a PWAT of 1.69", only slightly less than
normal for August, but the 850mb temperature was in the 75th
percentile- in the normal range, but on the higher end. The 1000-700
mb flow on the sounding was light and variable, which would render a
type 1 sea-breeze day. Although the atmosphere is slightly drier
than normal, there is plentiful low level moisture, so increased
PoPs slightly to a chance (30%) of showers and thunderstorms,
focused over north Florida, where we normally see the highest
coverage on regime 1 sea-breeze days. This is still a below normal
chance of precipitation for this time of year. Temperatures will
rise to the upper 90s and around 100 this afternoon, which will feel
even hotter when humidity is taken into account. We want to caution
people to stay hydrated and reduce their exposure to the heat today
by staying indoors. Tonight, lows will only dip to the mid 70s.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Deep layer high pressure will remain centered over the Deep South
through the weekend. As a shortwave moves off the Mid-Atlantic
coastline, the upper ridge will propagate eastward and build a
surface ridge down the U.S. east coast. This will force a front
into the Tri-State region late Sunday afternoon into Monday.

High temperatures on Saturday will likely be just as warm as
today, if not warmer. Widespread 100 degree readings should be
expected, with heat indices around 108 degrees for most locations.
The highest heat index values will likely be concentrated across
north Florida, nearer to the Gulf moisture source and away from
the drier air aloft that will likely get mixed down across south
Georgia and parts of southeast Alabama. A heat advisory will
remain in place across the entire region but should be marginal
across south Georgia.

Isolated to scattered storms can be expected along the Big Bend
seabreeze fronts on Saturday afternoon. More widespread rainfall
is expected on Sunday associated with the passing front, though it
will most likely arrive much later in the day. Expect our
northeastern GA counties to get in on the showers and
thunderstorms by mid- afternoon, possibly not reaching the
Tallahassee area until late Sunday evening.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

The aforementioned front will finish its passage through our
region by Monday evening bringing with it drier air and more
seasonable afternoon high temperatures. By mid to late week,
scattered seabreeze storms should be expected once again.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Cannot
rule out an isolated thunderstorm near ECP or TLH, but chances are
low. Winds will generally be from the north or west and remain
below 10 knots.

&&

.Marine...

Sub-headline level westerly/northwesterly flow will veer easterly
and increase to cautionary levels by Monday morning. Headline
conditions should last through mid-week under the influence of
nocturnal wind surges.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above red flag criteria through
the period.

&&

.Hydrology...

Widely scattered showers and storms can be expected through most
of the weekend. On Sunday, a front will pass through the region
from northeast to southwest bringing with it a good chance for
rain for most locations across the Tri-State region. However,
rainfall amounts will be insignificant and all area rivers will
remain below action stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75 101  77 100  77 /  10  30  20  40  50
Panama City   79  95  80  96  79 /  10  30  10  20  40
Dothan        75 100  76  99  75 /  10  10  10  20  50
Albany        76 101  76  99  75 /  10  10  20  60  40
Valdosta      74 101  75  98  74 /  10  30  20  60  40
Cross City    75  98  77  98  74 /  10  30  20  50  50
Apalachicola  78  95  79  95  80 /  10  30  20  30  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Lafayette-Madison.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     Saturday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-
     Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Leon-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN






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