Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 160932
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
432 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
An area of Dense Fog has formed across the SE FL Big Bend
overnight, and this area has been very gradually building off to
the NW during the last few hours. In fact, had to update the Dense
Fog Advisory to include Madison and Jefferson counties, and with
the Tallahassee Regional Airport (TLH) now reporting a Vis of 1/4
mile, may need to consider expanding this hazard into Leon and
Wakulla counties as well before the morning rush hour is upon us.
Other than the above mentioned fog, the major weather maker for
today will be a weak cold front which will move from NW to SE from
MS and AL into our region today. This cold front is extremely weak
and starved for moisture as its primary shortwave continues to
eject northeastward into the Great Lakes. Nevertheless, this front
has managed to maintain a thin band of showers just out ahead of
it, and with just a little bit of daytime insolation, see little
reason why this band will not hold together in some form. At this
time only showers are expected (no thunder with the very limited
instability) and due to the extreme narrowness of the band, total
QPF should be on the order of only 0.05" to 0.15" of rain, with
the greatest amounts across extreme NW portions of the CWA.
Additionally, once any fog and low cloudiness burns off, temps
should be quite warm for this time of year, with highs ranging
from around 70 degrees well to the north, to the middle 70s over
much of the interior away from the immediate coast.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Dry weather is expected through the short term period behind the
front with high pressure the dominant feature. Clearing skies are
expected tonight with mostly clear skies lasting through Wednesday
night. Clouds are expected to start to increase somewhat on Thursday
in association with the next system. Seasonal temperatures are
expected.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The next system of interest is still expected to arrive between the
Friday night and Saturday time frame. There are still some
disagreements on the strength of this system, although the last
couple of ECMWF runs have trended weaker. Nevertheless, measurable
rain chances still look fairly good on Saturday, so PoPs continue to
creep upward. There may be just enough instability for an isolated
thunderstorm or two, mainly over the western and southwestern
portions of the area. This system is expected to exit the area with
a brief break in the action before another system approaches on
Monday or next Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be mostly near
seasonal averages through the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Wednesday] Original thinking was that VFR conditions
would prevail through the period, but as we approach sunrise on
Tuesday morning, both TLH and VLD have dropped down to LIFR levels
from the dense fog which formed earlier over the SE FL Big Bend. At
the other terminals, MVFR conditions are likely to develop as some
low cloudiness out ahead of a weak cold front which will move in
from the west today with a few showers will likely lower Cigs and
possibly Vis just a bit this morning. This pre-frontal band of
clouds should also help to break up the LIFR level Vis now at TLH
and VLD. By tonight, once this cold front pushes on through, a
return to VFR conditions is expected areawide for the rest of the
period.

&&

.Marine...
Westerly winds will increase behind a cold frontal passage today
with exercise caution conditions west of Apalachicola through the
morning hours. Winds will then decrease for Wednesday and Thursday
before increasing again on Friday and Saturday as the next low
pressure system approaches the area.

&&

.Fire Weather...
With plenty of low level moisture and scattered showers in the area
today, clearly no fire weather concerns are expected. In fact, even
the cooler and drier air, which is expected to return for the rest
of the week, should have little or no impact as well, with afternoon
relative humidities remaining safely above critical thresholds.

&&

.Hydrology...
No flooding issues are expected over the next several days. A weak
system will bring a few showers to the region today. A better chance
of rain is expected on Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  40  65  37  68 /  40   0   0   0   0
Panama City   70  46  62  47  65 /  30   0   0   0   0
Dothan        71  38  61  39  64 /  50   0   0   0  10
Albany        73  37  63  35  65 /  40   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  39  64  38  66 /  40  10   0   0   0
Cross City    73  42  66  38  67 /  20  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  72  46  62  45  65 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-
     Lafayette-Leon-Madison.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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