Area Forecast Discussion
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436
FXUS62 KTAE 181425
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1025 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The Tri-State region remains sandwiched between a mid/upper level
ridge to our SE and a shortwave trough to our immediate NW. The
radar imagery this morning is littered with returns across most of
southern Alabama, though much of this rain is not reaching the
surface as it is evaporating in a relatively dry low-layer and a
very dry pocket around 800 mb. The dry layer will slowly erode
through the day, and the shortwave will encroach a bit more on our
Alabama and Florida panhandle counties late this afternoon. This
may result in a few showers later today. Elsewhere, a brief
shower may be possible late in the day across the Suwannee Valley
associated with the east coast seabreeze front, though confidence
is low in this area. Expect highs in the lower to middle 90s
today, with one more afternoon of relatively low humidity levels
(especially across the Big Bend of Florida and southwest Georgia).

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions will prevail under a rather solid mid/upper cloud
deck. There is a slight possibility of MVFR ceilings spreading
ashore near ECP later in the afternoon, though there is much
uncertainty regarding this solution. Winds should remain light
away from the coast with little to no rainfall expected.

&&

.Prev Discussion [338 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

With a mid/upper level trough moving over the Southeast throughout
the short term period, expect rain chances to be on the increase
through the weekend. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement
with rain chances in the 60 to 70 percent range for Saturday as
the leading edge of the disturbance moves into the region. Expect
an earlier start to convection, which will limit high temperatures
to only around 90 on Saturday. By Sunday, even though the main
disturbance will be moving into the Carolinas, the overall East
Coast trough will remain in place and with plenty of deep layer
moisture available expect good coverage of showers and storms by
afternoon. Storm activity on Sunday should be a little more
dirunally driven, but still enough convection should take place to
keep temperatures in the lower 90s in the afternoon. Overnight
lows throughout the short term period will return to typical
levels for July.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The long term period will be fairly active for our CWA as long wave
troughing continues its grip on the Eastern CONUS with ridging in
the West. This typically features rain chances that are above
climatology for our CWA so went with blend of higher HPC guidance
with GFS/Euro which yields rain chances near 70 percent each day in
the period. With higher chances for rain, temperatures are expected
to be below climatology as well with most locations likely reaching
AOB 90.


.Marine...

A weak pressure pattern typical for the summer months will be in
place into next week. This will result in light winds and low seas
for the next several days.


.Fire Weather...

Today should be the last mostly dry day on the horizon in quite
sometime, as a trof of low pressure moves in from the west and
stalls in our vicinity. This will bring a return to elevated rain
chances and high relative humidities throughout the coming days.


.Hydrology...

Rain chances will increase through the weekend. Isolated rainfall
totals in excess of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the western
half of the forecast area with lesser amounts of 1 to 2 inches
through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts should not be widespread
enough to cause any river flooding, though some localized issues
in flood prone areas are possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  71  90  72  91 /  10  20  50  30  60
Panama City   89  75  86  74  88 /  10  30  60  30  40
Dothan        92  73  87  72  90 /  10  30  70  30  60
Albany        94  71  86  72  89 /  10  20  60  30  60
Valdosta      95  71  89  71  91 /  10  20  50  30  60
Cross City    93  71  92  72  90 /  20  10  40  30  40
Apalachicola  88  74  86  73  87 /  10  20  50  30  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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