Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

990
FXUS62 KTAE 220001
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
801 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
CONVECTION ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES BY DAWN. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
TWEAK NEAR TERM POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z MONDAY] AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION, OCCASIONAL IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [344 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE
LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO MIDDLE GEORGIA. MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS AND AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY, A FEW STRONGER STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE PRIMARY THREAT
AT THIS TIME IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN`T BE RULED OUT BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT
ESPECIALLY STRONG.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AFTER A COOL TUESDAY
MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT BEFORE COOLING AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN LOW WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA DESPITE
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA.


.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HIGH.


.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS ON SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. MODEST
RISES IN AREA RIVERS TO ACTION STAGE ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   63  82  62  77  52 /  70  70  70  60  10
PANAMA CITY   65  74  65  72  55 /  30  70  60  20  10
DOTHAN        61  75  59  67  51 /  70  90  70  40  10
ALBANY        60  73  57  63  49 /  60  90  90  60  10
VALDOSTA      63  80  61  69  51 /  50  80  80  70  10
CROSS CITY    63  83  64  80  52 /  20  30  50  60  10
APALACHICOLA  65  77  66  76  58 /  20  50  60  40  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.