Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 230837
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
437 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Expect another virtual repeat of conditions across the region today
as we had on Friday, with High temperatures ranging from the upper
90s to the lower 100s yet again. With Sfc dewpoints still expected
to rise into the lower to middle 70s, Heat Indices will be elevated
to dangerous levels once again across the Tri-State Region. We were
able to trim back the Excessive Heat Warning to Franklin county in
the FL Big Bend, but in much of the FL Panhandle (where dewpoints
are still expected to be just a bit higher than most locations)
still issued another Excessive Heat Warning for all but Inland
Walton, Holmes, and Jackson counties. For these northern Panhandle
areas, as well as the rest of the CWA, expect peak Heat Indices to
rise to between 108 and 112 degrees, which warranted a continuation
of the Heat Advisory. However, for Franklin county and the remainder
of the Florida Panhandle, still expect Heat Indices to top out
between 110 and 114 degrees, which will be the first time in quite a
while where back to back Excessive Heat Warnings have been issued.
As for PoPs, with the 1000-700mb Mean Layer Vector Wind (MLVW) still
out of the NW at 5 to 10 kts, still expect a Type 8 Sea Breeze Day,
although it should not be quite as convectively active as
climatology would suggest with Upper Level Ridging still in control
of our region. Our locally derived ECAM (Ensemble of Convective
Allowing Models) PoPs seemed to capture this quite well, so used
these rain chances almost verbatim for this afternoon. This gives us
just slight chance (20%) PoPs for most of the FL Big Bend and
Panhandle, with a smaller area of 30%s further to the SE, and
finally PoPs near 40% over Dixie county alone.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The ridge center will move further west of the region by Sunday as
a large trough slides down the east coast. This will push a
backdoor front into the region by Sunday evening. Ahead of this
boundary, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop late in the
afternoon. Some of these storms could be strong given how unstable
the airmass is anticipated to be ahead of the boundary.
Temperatures will still be hot, but a couple degrees cooler than
the past few days. A heat advisory may be needed for a portion of
the region on Sunday afternoon, but with the increased rain
chances, confidence isn`t high enough to extend the heat advisory
into Sunday at this time.
By Monday, the models begin to differ on how much drier air comes
in from the northeast. Our region will be between the large ridge
across the Mid Mississippi River Valley a tropical disturbance
east of the Bahamas. Rain chances should be less on Monday
afternoon with some drier air working into the region.
Additionally, temperatures should cool a few more degrees with
highs generally in the mid 90s.
.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The aforementioned front will finish its passage through our
region by Monday evening bringing with it drier air and more
seasonable afternoon high temperatures. By mid to late week,
scattered sea breeze storms should be expected once again.
[Through 12Z Sunday] VFR conditions are once again expected to
prevail through the next 24 hours, with just a brief period of
MVFR level Vis possible early this morning at ECP and VLD, before
the heat and humidity overtake the terminals once again. There
will be some threat for afternoon showers and thunderstorms once
again this afternoon, but these are expected to be mainly confined
near the coast with only 20% PoPs at TLH and ECP, so no mention of
even VCTS was made in the Tafs at this time.
Light winds and seas will remain in place through the weekend.
Easterly winds will increase on Monday as the gradient tightens
between an area of high pressure across the Mid Atlantic States
and a tropical disturbance east of the Bahamas. A period of
cautionary conditions looks certain beginning Monday and
continuing through at least Tuesday.
.Fire Weather...With plenty of heat and high humidity, no Red
Flag conditions are expected anytime in the near future.
Widely scattered showers and storms can be expected through most
of the weekend. On Sunday, a front will pass through the region
from northeast to southwest bringing with it a good chance for
rain for most locations across the Tri-State region. However,
rainfall amounts will be insignificant and all area rivers will
remain below action stage.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 101 77 98 75 94 / 20 10 40 40 20
Panama City 96 80 96 80 91 / 20 10 20 40 20
Dothan 100 76 99 75 93 / 10 10 40 40 10
Albany 100 77 97 74 92 / 10 10 50 40 10
Valdosta 101 74 97 73 92 / 10 10 50 40 10
Cross City 98 75 97 74 93 / 40 10 40 40 20
Apalachicola 96 80 94 81 91 / 30 10 30 40 20
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Coastal Dixie-Coastal
Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-
Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning
to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Inland Bay-
Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-South Walton-Washington.
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening