Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 261901

301 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure along the eastern seaboard will weaken overnight,
allowing the northeasterly flow across the forecast area to weaken
as well. Any lingering showers for areas south of I-10 should
diminish rapidly by around sunset, with no overnight precip expected
over land areas.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The upper ridge with very dry air in the mid to upper levels will
remain in place through the short term period. Low level flow will
be from the east to northeast through Wednesday night then become
southeasterly on Thursday bringing increasing moisture to the
boundary layer. We may see some coastal showers Thursday night.
Otherwise, PoPs over land will be at 10% or less. Daytime temps
will be above climo with highs in the lower to mid 90s away from
the immediate coast. Dew points are forecast to mix out in the
upper 50s to lower 60s both afternoons with the exception of the
immediate coast where upper 60s to lower 70s will be common. As a
result, heat indices will not be concern as they should stay within
a few degrees of actual air temps. The exception will be along the
immediate coast on Thursday where heat indices may rise at or
just above 100 degrees.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The GFS and ECMWF show the Tri-State region residing on the western
periphery of deep layer ridging through Saturday. After that the
GFS expands the ridge westward while becoming less amplified. The
ECMWF keeps the area under the western portion of the de-amplifying
ridge. At the surface, low level flow will be southerly with the
high situated well east of the Atlantic seaboard. Both solutions
show a return of deep layer moisture to the area with near to above
normal rain chances each day. Despite the increase in rain chances,
max temps will generally be above climo in the lower to mid 90s.


[Through 18Z Wednesday] Northeasterly flow will continue through
the forecast period at all terminals. However, any significant
gusts will end by late afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail.



Advisory level conditions have diminished across the local waters
this afternoon. However, cautionary level winds and seas will
continue through tonight. Then, lighter winds and seas are expected
through the end of the week.


.Fire Weather...

A relatively dry airmass will remain in place across the region
through Thursday, with minimum humidity values dropping into the
upper 20s. However, Red Flag conditions are not expected.



With little to no measurable rainfall expected across the Tri-State
region until Friday and the upcoming weekend, there are no pressing
hydrological concerns at the present time.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  95  70  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
Panama City   75  94  75  94  74 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        67  92  67  95  69 /   0  10  10  10  10
Albany        67  93  65  96  68 /   0   0  10  10   0
Valdosta      66  94  65  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
Cross City    68  94  68  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  74  92  72  92  74 /  20  10  10  10  20


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for Coastal



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