Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
FXUS62 KTAE 251347

947 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2014


No significant changes were made to the previous forecast this
morning, and the discussions below remain unchanged.


.Prev Discussion [354 AM EDT]...

.Near Term (Today)...

Strong northeasterly flow today between an area of high pressure
across the Mid Atlantic States and Tropical Storm Cristobal will
bring in a much drier and slightly cooler airmass to the region.
While most of the region will be dry today, a few showers will be
possible across the southeastern Florida Big Bend where enough
moisture will remain. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler, only
in the lower 90s. The drier air from the northeast will also drop
dewpoints into the low to mid 60s across much of the area delivering
a break from high heat indices experienced over the weekend.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

After our recent 4 day Heat Wave with very high Heat Indices due to
high temps around 100 degrees with elevated dewpoints, the short
term period will will certainly feel quite a bit more comfortable
through at least mid-week. Even though highs will still average a
bit above normal, the lower afternoon dewpoints and a nice
northeasterly breeze will definitely make quite a bit of difference,
as Maximum Heat Indices will "only" be in the lower to middle 90s
across the Tri-State area. Even though this could still be
considered "hot", after 4 consecutive days of Heat Indices between
108 and 115+, this should be a welcome change for most people with
outdoor activities. PoPs will be at a minimum as well, with just a
fairly small area of 15-20% rain chances Tuesday afternoon and
evening, with a completely dry Wednesday expected. Overnight low
temps will also be noticeably more comfy, with lows ranging from the
middle 60s to the N and W to the lower 70s to the S and E.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Sunday]...

The GFS and ECMWF forecast an area of higher heights over the
Southeast through the period. Initially the deep layer moisture is
forecast to be limited, but by next weekend it may be sufficient
to support scattered mainly afternoon & evening storms (as opposed
to just isolated storms through Friday). Temperatures will be near
climo, with lows in the 70s and highs in the 90s.


[Through 12z Tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Gusty northeast winds are expected during the daytime hours
on Monday up to 20kts at all terminals.


Northeasterly winds have continued to increase early this morning,
as the relatively cooler and drier air moves southeast across the
marine area. In fact, although prevailing seas are not expected to
quite reach Small Craft Advisory levels, winds are well on there
way, so will begin this forecast with an Advisory, and although
there may be a few breaks at times during the daylight hours, very
rare summertime nocturnal surges will keep them from dropping too
much through Tuesday. Therefore, given the rareness of the event,
with winds not dropping below 15 to 20 knots through Tuesday,
decided to run the Small Craft Advisory until Tuesday afternoon.

.Fire Weather...

Drier conditions are expected into mid week, but relative humidity
values will remain above critical levels. Thus, red flag conditions
are not anticipated.


With little to no rain expected over the next few days, river stages
and flows should continue to run below normal.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  70  92  69  95 /   0  10  20  10  10
Panama City   92  74  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  20  10
Dothan        91  66  92  68  94 /   0  10  10  10  10
Albany        91  67  92  68  93 /   0   0  10  10  10
Valdosta      91  69  92  67  96 /   0  10  20  10  10
Cross City    90  70  91  68  94 /  30  10  20  10  10
Apalachicola  92  75  91  76  90 /   0  10  10  20  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Tuesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



HYDROLOGY...GOULD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.