Area Forecast Discussion
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292 FXUS62 KTAE 121921 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 321 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Deep layer ridging and a relative minimum in PWATs (and mid-level moisture) has thus far kept convective activity suppressed through 19Z across much of our forecast area. This is expected to continue through mid afternoon, although most models do generate some isolated to scattered thunderstorms from late this afternoon into the evening hours. Convection-allowing models are in good agreement in showing some storms lingering several hours after sunset. Because of these trends, we focused the best rain chances (as high as 30-40%) from around 22Z to 06Z. Otherwise, temperatures should continue to be a few degrees above normal for this time of year. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... Although the upper level pattern will feature an elongated east- west upper level ridge across the area, a weak surface boundary will get pushed into the area as a strong surface ridge builds across the middle part of the country. Deep moisture is expected to pool along this boundary with an increase in convection likely for Saturday afternoon, especially across the western portions of the area. In addition, with precipitable water values rising to near 2 inches and weak steering flow, some localized heavy rainfall amounts could occur, again most likely mainly west of a Tallahassee to Albany line. Deep moisture will linger across the area on Sunday, but there appears to be less of a focusing mechanism for convection compared to Saturday, so PoPs are expected to be more uniform across the area in the 40-50% range. High temperatures are expected to be mainly in the lower 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... The main uncertainty for the extended forecast is to what extent the weak system moving westward into the Gulf will impact our area. The collaborated NHC/WPC forecast takes the system westward to a position south of Houston by mid-week and keeps it weak. Deep moisture will continue to increase across the area with a stalled frontal boundary also in the vicinity. These ingredients point to an unsettled period coming up with an above average chance of rain by mid-week. Some locally heavy rain is possible given the weak boundary and deep tropical moisture expected to be in place. This could be further enhanced by the Gulf system depending on its evolution, but that evolution is much more uncertain. Daytime highs are expected to be held down in the mid 80s from Tuesday through most of the week given the expected cloud cover and increased rain coverage.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions should generally prevail over the next 24 hours. Some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and linger into the evening hours, primarily 22-06Z. VCTS was included in this set of TAFs, with the best chances for thunderstorms at ABY and DHN. If a thunderstorm directly affects one of the terminals, a brief period of IFR VIS will be possible. Showers and storms should diminish later tonight. Just beyond the end of this TAF period - Saturday afternoon - thunderstorm coverage is expected to be higher than what we are likely to see today.
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&& .Marine...
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A weak pressure gradient is expected to remain in place through most of the period with winds and sea fairly low. Winds will increase some offshore on Saturday as a weak low passes well south of the area.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Relative humidity values will remain above 35 percent through next week with no red flag conditions expected.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Although widespread heavy rainfall is not expected through the weekend, some localized heavy amounts could occur with deep moisture in place and a weak frontal boundary sliding south into the area. The most likely areas to see locally heavy rain on Saturday will be west of a Tallahassee to Albany line. Looking ahead into next week, deep tropical moisture is expected to be in the area along with a weak frontal boundary and the possibility of a weak low in the Gulf. These ingredients will have to be monitored closely for the potential of some heavy rain by mid-week.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 73 92 73 92 72 / 20 40 30 40 30 Panama City 77 91 75 90 75 / 20 60 40 40 30 Dothan 72 91 72 90 72 / 40 70 50 50 30 Albany 73 92 72 92 73 / 40 60 50 50 30 Valdosta 71 92 71 92 71 / 20 30 30 40 30 Cross City 71 92 71 91 71 / 20 30 30 40 30 Apalachicola 75 89 75 89 75 / 20 40 30 40 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...DVD

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