Area Forecast Discussion
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831
FXUS62 KTAE 090227
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1027 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Morning convection near the coast spread inland today, interacting
with a surface trough along the Florida state line. The resultant
line of storms pushed north into central Georgia where it met with
scattered convection along another surface trough. This final
round of storms eventually moved back south into our northern
Georgia counties this evening. After the remaining stratiform rain
in southwest Georgia dies off in the next hour or so, the focus
for storms will once again shift south of I-10 in Florida. The
bulk of the convection will be offshore, with only a 30% chance
over land areas south of the interstate.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]...

Expect a band of low ceilings and visibilities to expand along and
outward from the Florida state line tonight. This will impact VLD
and DHN with IFR restrictions. A late round of storms near ABY
will likely result in some low ceiling and fog development later
on tonight as well. IFR restrictions at these sites will lift to
MVFR and then scatter out by mid morning tomorrow. Showers and
storms should be expected once again tomorrow, with the main focus
along and southeast of a line from ECP to TLH to VLD.

&&

.Prev Discussion [224 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The short wave trough over the Carolinas will lift off to the
northeast allowing the subtropical upper ridge axis to become
re-established across the region by Wednesday. Meanwhile the front
over the region will gradually lift northward during this period.
Tuesday`s PoPs will be highest over the eastern FL Big Bend and will
then drop off toward the northwest in the drier air. By Wednesday,
PoPs will be reduced across the southeastern zones too as the upper
ridge exerts more influence. Temps will be a few degrees above
normal through the period.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The subtropical ridge axis will remain stretched east to west across
the entire Gulf Coast region through the end of the week keeping the
westerlies to our north. The ridge will be at its strongest early in
the period suppressing PoPs below climo on Thursday. The models
continue to show a trend toward shifting the long wave trough axis
from the central to the eastern U.S. over the weekend with a slight
amplification into the Southeast. The associated cold front will
edge toward the region and eventually stall/wash out over the
forecast area. While our northwestern zones will see some relief
from the humidity and lower PoPs, the southeastern half will not be
so lucky with more unsettled conditions keeping PoPs at or above
climo from Friday onward. Temps will be close to normal, but dip
below normal across our northern zones late in the period.


.Marine...
A very weak pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place
through most of the week. This will keep winds and seas well below
any headline criteria.


.Fire Weather...
With the recent heavy rainfall and expected rainfall through the
period, red flag criteria will not be met.


.Hydrology...
Recent heavy rainfall across the forecast area has lowered flash
flood guidance (FFG) slightly into the 2-3"/hr range in many
spots, with a few spots below 2"/hr in the vicinity of Albany.
Radar estimates indicate that we have seen values close to these
values already today, so we will continue to monitor for isolated
flash flooding. The recent rains also now have most area rivers
rising. However, it will take quite some time before we need to be
concerned about any river flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  91  73  93  73 /  30  40  10  30  10
Panama City   77  89  76  90  77 /  40  30  20  30  10
Dothan        71  91  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  20  10
Albany        72  91  72  93  73 /  60  30  10  20  10
Valdosta      71  90  70  93  71 /  20  40  20  30  10
Cross City    73  89  70  92  70 /  30  50  20  30  20
Apalachicola  76  87  76  89  76 /  40  40  20  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...WOOL






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