Area Forecast Discussion
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181
FXUS62 KTAE 112011
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
An upper level shortwave trough will move through the area today.
At the surface, high pressure centered over the mid-Mississippi
Valley is bringing northerly flow and cool dry air to the
region. Cloud cover will decrease during the afternoon hours as
the trough moves further away. High temperatures will continue to
be on the cool side, generally in the mid to upper 50s. Overnight,
high pressure will continue to move in from the west and upper
level flow will be zonal. With clear skies overnight, lows will be
in the lower 30s. Winds will remain light and northerly.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
At the surface, high pressure will be anchored over the
Kentucky/Tennessee region continuing the trend of northerly flow
and cool dry air. Despite sunny skies highs are expected to be
in the lower 60s on Friday and low to mid 60s on Saturday. Lows
will be in the lower 30s Friday night and low to mid 30s Saturday
night.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
An upper level ridge will move east across the area on Sunday. An
upper low will then lift from the Central Plains northeast across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valleys. The Euro is taking the more southern
route. This is the more energetic solution for us with respect to
the sensible weather that will be associated with the system`s cold
front that will sweep across the region on Tuesday. This will mainly
impact rainfall coverage. For now, we have low chances (30 percent)
for showers from late Monday night through Tuesday. Temps will
gradually moderate to slightly above normal levels from Monday
through Tuesday. The cold front will be pretty weak only settling
temps back to seasonal levels from Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with light  northwesterly flow.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will generally be out of the north into the weekend as high
pressure holds in place northwest of the waters. Winds may
occasionally reach 15 knots during the overnight hours. Winds will
weaken late in the weekend as high pressure builds over the waters
before turning onshore early next week. Southwest winds will
increase to near 15 knots ahead of the next cold front on Tuesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
RH values will be near critical values Friday afternoon. However,
other factors are not supportive of red flag conditions. Fair and
dry weather will continue through the weekend.

&&

.Hydrology...
With all rivers below action stage and no rain expected through
Monday, there are no flooding concerns. The next chance for rain
will come Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   31  62  33  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   40  62  43  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        34  60  35  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        31  60  33  64  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      31  60  33  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    32  63  31  66  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  38  61  40  64  42 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...WOOL




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