Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 151942

342 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

As of 1930Z, much of the convective development has been limited
to the far southeast parts of the area, as expected. Over the rest
of the area, dewpoints have mixed into the 60s with temperatures
in the 90s. Therefore, the previous forecast remains on track, and
no significant changes were made. For the low temperatures, there
is once again potential for lows into the mid-upper 60s in
northern parts of the area where dewpoints are currently as low as
60 degrees. This occurred last night with more limited cloud
cover, and that is expected to be the scenario again. Therefore,
the forecast was based on a blend of 50% persistence (last night`s
lows) and 50% model consensus. That produces lows in the 60s in
our Alabama zones and north of a line from Blakley to Fitzgerald
in Georgia. Lows should be in the low 70s elsewhere.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Outside of the coastal waters and extreme SE FL Big Bend tomorrow
morning, where chance level convection will likely linger from this
afternoon`s convective blowup over the NE Gulf of Mexico, the
overall trend of dry air intrusion from the NW is expected to
continue into this weekend. This should result in generally slight
chance to low end chance PoPs over the interior (20-30%) at best, as
well as fairly hot high temperatures, which are expected to be on
the high side of the middle 90s away from the coast. Although
afternoon temps will be about the same on Sunday, it will feel a bit
more comfortable on Saturday as dewpoints are expected to mix out
into the lower to middle 60s, while on Sunday, the higher humidity
will return to the region allowing Heat Indices to exceed the 100
degree mark in most locations.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

Nearly zonal flow will gradually be replaced by building upper
level ridging across the SE U.S. through the entire extended
period, while a weak Sfc high pressure system generally remains in
place across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This type of synoptic
pattern with potential stacked ridging should result in a
prolonged period of hot and humid conditions across the entire
CWA, with below normal PoPs forced only by the diurnal sea breeze
circulation. High temps should at least be in the mid 90s away
from the coast, with some upper 90s certainly possible by mid to
late week. Overnight lows will mainly be in the very muggy mid to
upper 70s.



[Through 18Z Saturday] Scattered showers and thunderstorms today
should remain mostly southeast of all terminals. A stray shower or
storm could affect TLH or VLD, mainly 20-02Z, but that is not
likely and was not included in the TAF. Otherwise, VFR conditions
should prevail with fairly light winds.



Although winds will generally be light out of the west to
southwest at around 10 knots through much of the period with 1
to 2 foot seas across our Coastal Waters, a slight increase in the
pressure pattern on Sunday night may allow for a brief spike of 10
to 15 knot winds and 2 to 3 foot seas. Mariners should also be
cautious for locally higher winds and seas in scattered showers
and thunderstorms for the remainder of this afternoon through
tomorrow morning.


.Fire Weather...

Despite some drier air than is typical for the summer months,
especially in parts of Alabama and Georgia, relative humidity
should remain above critical thresholds and red flag conditions
are not expected.



Rainfall totals through Sunday are expected to range from 0.25 to
1.00 inches. With all area rivers below action stage, no flooding
is expected.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  96  73  96  75 /  10  20  10  30  20
Panama City   76  92  78  91  78 /  10  10  10  20  20
Dothan        67  96  72  95  74 /   0  10  10  20  20
Albany        69  96  71  96  73 /   0  10   0  20  10
Valdosta      71  96  70  97  73 /  20  20  10  20  10
Cross City    73  94  72  94  74 /  30  40  20  20  20
Apalachicola  77  90  78  91  79 /  20  20  10  20  20


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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