Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 161606

1106 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Just a few very minor updates this morning, as the low cloudiness
is gradually burning off across the region. This should lead to a
partly cloudy and milder day this afternoon with temps climbing up
into the upper 60s well to the north to the lower to middle 70s
elsewhere across the Tri-State area.


.Prev Discussion [611 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
For tonight and Monday, not much has changed from the previous
thinking. The main question will be the recovery of the low level
airmass from its current cool and rather dry state as both low
level and deep layer shear looks like they will be sufficient to
support severe weather. In terms of instability, guidance agrees
that will be a narrow band of surface-based instability near the
Gulf coast Monday morning with dewpoints recovering to the mid
60s. The CAM ensemble responds with SBCAPE values near 1000 j/kg
along the coast with lesser values farther inland. With 0-1 km
shear near 30 knots and 0-6 km shear near 50 knots expected, some
severe weather is possible, including the potential for an
isolated tornado or two. SPC has outlooked most of the area for a
slight risk of severe storms for Monday. As the front moves
through the area during the day, temperatures will be falling
during the afternoon behind it with gusty northwest winds. As an
example, the Dothan area is expected to start Monday morning in
the lower 60s and end the day in the upper 40s.

For Monday night and Tuesday, a much colder airmass will continue
to advect into the area behind the front. With strong cold
advection occurring, the official forecast used more of a raw
model blend instead of MOS, although MOS was not overly different
in this case. A light freeze is a distinct possibility across
portions of the area Monday night followed by a very cold day on
Tuesday relative to average with highs struggling to even reach
50. The northern portions of the forecast area may stay in the mid
to upper 40s.

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
A very cold and dry airmass will be in place at the start of the
period with a widespread freeze likely on Tuesday night and again
on Wednesday night. In fact, hard freeze conditions (locally
defined as below 26 degrees for at least 2 hours) are looking more
likely for Tuesday night across a large part of the area with
center of the surface high pressure in a favorable area. These
temperatures are around 20 to 25 degrees below average for this
time of year. A gradual moderation is expected for the end of the

By next Sunday, the 00z GFS, Euro, and Canadian all have a rather
strong system developing west of the area which could bring
another round of storms just beyond the day 7 period into early
next week.

[Through 12Z Monday] MVFR cigs in the early morning hours at eastern
terminals (VLD, TLH, and ABY) will improve to VFR by around 15-16Z,
MVFR cigs will build again between 00-04Z, this time from the west
ahead of our next cold front. By the end of the period, we will
begin to see thunderstorms with IFR cigs possible, particularly at
the eastern terminals.

Winds will veer to southeasterly today and then southerly tonight
and increase to exercise caution levels overnight. Advisory level
conditions are expected on Monday just ahead of a strong cold
front as well as behind the front as winds shift to the
northwest. Strong offshore flow will continue into Tuesday before
diminishing into Wednesday as high pressure builds over the

.Fire Weather...
A cold front will cross the area tonight through Monday night,
with an arctic airmass pushing into the area in its wake. On
Tuesday and Wednesday, a much colder, drier airmass will be in
place over the tri-state area, but it may be too cold for relative
humidity values to dip to red flag criteria for the durations

Sunday night and Monday rainfall amounts will generally be
between 0.5 and 1.25 inches, with the highest amounts over SE
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. With current river levels
quite low, these amounts are not expected cause any problems.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   71  61  69  32  49 /  10  30  90  10   0
Panama City   70  66  68  35  49 /  10  60 100  10   0
Dothan        68  61  62  27  45 /  10  70 100  10   0
Albany        69  60  63  28  45 /  10  50 100  10   0
Valdosta      70  60  70  32  48 /  10  20  90  40   0
Cross City    75  62  72  39  52 /  10  10  80  50   0
Apalachicola  69  66  70  37  50 /  10  40  90  10   0


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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