Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 110555
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
155 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Time height cross sections and forecast soundings show significant
drying in the mid levels with the deep layer ridging in place.
However, there is sufficient moisture in the low levels with the
onshore shore to support low topped convection especially this
afternoon with max heating. The convective pattern should be similar
to what we saw on Wednesday. So, went with low end chance PoPs (30%)
generally along and south of I-10 and slight chance (20%) elsewhere.
Temps will continue above seasonal levels with highs in the lower to
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A narrow ENE-WSW oriented 500 mb ridge will continue over our
forecast area through Saturday. At the surface, the western portion
of the Bermuda ridge will break down as a cold front moves into
(then stalls) across central AL & GA, and a weak low pressure system
(currently near the Bahamas) moves into the southeast Gulf of
Mexico. Our forecast area will be in between these systems, with
little direct Q-G forcing from either of them. Indirectly, the NWP
guidance forecasts a gradual improvement in thermodynamics, which
should help in the generation of diurnally-driven showers and
thunderstorms (mainly on Saturday). Our PoP is a blend of the
various MOS and is fairly close to climo- 30% Friday and 40%
Saturday. Highs will be slightly above climo- in the lower to mid
90s, and lows will be in the 70s.
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
There are model discrepancies from Monday onward in terms of how
well, if at all, any weak upper ridging will becomes re-
established along the Gulf Coast. The 09/12Z Euro certainly
supports that, while the latest GFS continued the trend of
deepening a trough into the Southeast. Even with the latter
solution, it does not appear that a cold front will make it too
far into the area, if at all. The proximity of the front will
enhance PoPs during the work week. Temps will start out a couple
of degrees above normal (lower 90s) and then edge gradually
downward to the mid/upper 80s by midweek.
[Through 06Z Friday] Low ceilings and visibilities will gradually
spread in from the east before daybreak. With the exception of ECP,
all terminals should experience at least MVFR, but more likely IFR
at VLD and DHN. There is a low chance of convection impacting the
terminals today. Only mentioned VCTS at the ECP and TLH terminals.
The marine area will remain in a fairly flat pressure gradient
through this weekend. Winds will range from east to south 10 KT or
less, with the south winds coming during the afternoons as the land
heats up faster than the Gulf coastal waters. At this time we don`t
expect the weak low pressure system near the Bahamas to develop into
a tropical cyclone, but if it does as it enters the southeast Gulf
of Mexico, our current forecast for winds and seas would be too low.
No fire weather concerns at least through the middle of next week.
Despite some heavy rains a few days ago, local rivers were still
well below action stage. This is likely to continue given the rather
"spotty" nature of the rain expected over the next few days. The
threat of flash flooding is low through at least Friday.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 94 73 93 73 92 / 30 10 30 20 40
Panama City 92 76 90 77 91 / 30 10 30 20 40
Dothan 93 72 95 74 93 / 20 10 30 20 40
Albany 94 72 96 74 93 / 20 10 30 20 40
Valdosta 94 72 94 71 92 / 20 20 30 20 40
Cross City 93 71 93 71 92 / 20 20 30 20 40
Apalachicola 89 76 89 76 89 / 30 10 30 20 40