Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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689
FXUS62 KTAE 240306
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1106 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

OUTSIDE OF PATCHES OF DRIZZLE EARLY TONIGHT...RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ALL NIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES
MILD. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE 60S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
MIDDLE 50S DEEPER INTO ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY]...

CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW-END OF MVFR TO THE HIGH END
OF IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR AND
POSSIBLY TO VFR IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...THOUGH WHETHER CEILINGS
SCATTER COMPLETELY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [329 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN BACK
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH THROUGH THE
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE TRAPPED UNDER THE SHALLOW INVERSION TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS, ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. ON
WEDNESDAY, THE WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK AS THE HIGH RETREATS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. INCREASING INSOLATION ALONG WITH ONSHORE FLOW
WILL ELEVATE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S MOST INLAND AREAS.
THE WARMER TEMPS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD FROM THE
PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S
TO MID 60S FOR LOWS. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ONLY BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER
40S SOUTH.


.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN
ELEVATE TO AT LEAST CAUTIONARY LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL AWAY FROM RED FLAG LEVELS.


.HYDROLOGY...

24-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 0.25 TO 1.0 INCH
RANGE FROM ABOUT I-10 NORTHWARD...EXCEPT IN THE FL PANHANDLE
WHERE THERE WAS A NARROW BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM DESTIN TO JUST
WEST OF BLOUNTSTOWN. ELSEWHERE RAIN AMOUNTS WERE LESS THAN 0.25
INCHES. TODAYS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH...WITH MOST OF THIS RAIN IN THE REGION THAT DID NOT GET
MUCH RAIN SUNDAY. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE SOME RISES ON THE LOCAL
RIVERS...BUT FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   57  77  56  83  58 /  10   0   0  20  10
PANAMA CITY   59  73  60  76  61 /  10   0  10  10  10
DOTHAN        54  75  55  79  56 /  10   0   0  20  10
ALBANY        53  70  55  80  56 /  10   0   0  20  20
VALDOSTA      55  76  56  83  58 /  10   0   0  20  20
CROSS CITY    58  79  57  85  60 /  10   0   0  20  20
APALACHICOLA  61  74  62  75  62 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN/MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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