Area Forecast Discussion
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506
FXUS62 KTAE 131447
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
947 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Very few changes made to the existing forecast this morning. Dry
weather will continue with sunny skies due to a building ridge and
limited moisture (per 12Z Tallahassee sounding). High temperatures
in the mid-60s will be near normal for this time of year.

&&

.Prev Discussion [429 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
A dry and quiet short term period is expected. High pressure
centered just north of the region will remain in place across the
Southeast as mid level ridging builds in by Sunday. While
overnight lows will remain rather chilly in the low to mid 30s,
afternoon high temperatures will begin to moderate on Sunday with
highs approaching or exceeding 70 degrees on Monday.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The models have continued to trend weaker with an approaching
front system on Monday night into Tuesday. In fact with nearly all
of the energy with this system remaining well to the north in the
Great Lakes, some guidance members struggle to generate any QPF.
While some drier air will move in behind the cold front on
Wednesday, significantly colder air will remain well to the north.
The next chance of rain will arrive by Friday as a storm system
begins to organize over the western Gulf in response to a
deepening Central/Eastern CONUS trough.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period with light northwest winds.


.Marine...
Light offshore winds will continue through the weekend with high
pressure centered to the north of the marine area. Winds will
shift to easterly and eventually onshore ahead of the next storm
system that will approach the area on Tuesday.


.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity values will be near critical levels this
afternoon, especially over portions of the Florida big bend.
However, the wind and ERC values are not expected to be supportive
of red flag criteria. This afternoon is expected to be the driest
period with a gradual moistening through early next week. Due to
light winds and rather meager mixing heights, daytime dispersion
values will be unusually low today and Sunday.


.Hydrology...
There will be a slight chance for rain on Monday night, though
average amounts should remain below a quarter of an inch. Thus,
area rivers and streams should remain in a rather steady state.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   67  33  66  35  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   64  43  65  45  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        64  36  64  38  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        64  34  66  35  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      65  34  65  36  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    66  32  68  35  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  64  41  63  41  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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