Area Forecast Discussion
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401
FXUS62 KTAE 102027
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
327 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
At the surface, high pressure over the Midwest is bringing northerly
flow and cool dry air to the region. Weak low level cold advection
will keep temperatures today below average, with highs generally
in the upper 50s under sunny skies. Tonight a weak upper level
trough will move through. With dry air in place, rain is not
expected. Some cirrus clouds may move in high in the sky where
there is more moisture. Lows will be in the lower 30s tonight.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
There will be little change in the weather through this period. High
pressure will remain centered well north of the area over the
Tennessee Valley. This will maintain a flow of dry cool air into the
region. Highs will be in the upper 50s on Friday and the lower 60s
on Saturday. Lows will be down around freezing both nights.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The CWA will begin the long term period in a fairly amplified and
progressive pattern. As an upper level trough over New England
begins to slowly move east Sunday night, the area will remain on
the southern side of 500-mb ridge. With weak flow aloft, and at the
surface, the air mass in place will slowly moderate ahead of our
next rain-maker on Tuesday.

An upper level trough currently off the Western CONUS will amplify
little as it moves eastward across the US. This should generate a
weak area of low pressure that will translate ENE across the Ohio
River Valley. A trailing cold front is expected to push through on
Tuesday and generate some showers. With instability lacking, and
dynamic forcing being relatively weak, do not expect much QPF, or
any severe weather. Behind the front temperatures will return to
near climatological levels.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Winds will continue to diminish.

&&

.Marine...
High pressure will be centered well north of the area through much
of the period maintaining light to occasionally moderate northerly
winds through the weekend. The high will slide off to the east on
Monday as a frontal system approaches from the west. This will allow
winds to finally veer to onshore.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Relatively cool, dry conditions will continue into this weekend.
Daytime dispersion values will be rather low due to limited
vertical mixing and uniform winds in the boundary layer. RH
values may fall near locally critical values Friday afternoon, but
it`s unclear whether or not other factors will be in place for a
Fire Weather Watch.

&&

.Hydrology...
With all rivers below action stage and no rain expected for the next
several days, there are no flooding concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   32  59  32  63  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   38  59  40  63  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        33  57  34  61  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        30  58  31  62  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      32  58  31  61  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    30  60  32  64  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  38  59  38  62  39 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL/DOBBS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...WOOL






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