Area Forecast Discussion
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635 FXUS62 KTAE 100617 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 217 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Upper ridging will build in from the west today helping to further suppress convective coverage. The surface ridge axis will remain to our north with a moist low level flow continuing from the southeast. PoPs will be highest over the easternmost Big Bend zones (40%) where a bit more moisture is present. Otherwise, PoPs will be in the 20-30% range for the remainder of the Tri-state region. The reduction in storm coverage will be accompanied by an increase in afternoon temperatures. Highs will be generally be in the lower 90s away from the coast. .Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... A narrow, east-northeast to west southwest 500 mb ridge is forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF to be over our forecast area through the period. At the surface, our forecast area will near the western periphery of the Bermuda ridge. A tropical wave will move from the Bahamas to South FL on Friday. With little if any Q-G forcing, most of the forcing for deep moist convection will come from mesoscale boundaries, most of which (like the sea/land breeze fronts) will be diurnally driven. Deep layer moisture, though not as rich as what we`ve observed here the past several days, will be sufficient to support isolated to scattered showers & thunderstorms each day. Our PoP is in the 20 to 40 range, which is near climatology. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s (a little above average), with lows in the 70s. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... The upper ridge will be weakened by a tropical wave that will pass south of the area across the Gulf of Mexico. Once the wave axis passes west of the region, we will see an increase in deep layer moisture. A front will also stall just northwest of the forecast area. These features will increase rain chances somewhat over the weekend, but particularly into early next week.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Thursday] With plenty of low-level moisture still in place, low ceilings and visibilities should impact all TAF sites in the pre-dawn hours. Then, gradual improvement to VFR shortly after daybreak with only a low end chance or slight chance of showers/TSTMS at the terminals this afternoon.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds will be generally light from the east or south (during the afternoons near the coast) as the coastal waters become situated near the western periphery of the Bermuda ridge. Some increase in winds & seas is possible Saturday as a tropical wave moves into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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No fire weather concerns at least through the upcoming weekend.
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&& .Hydrology...
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With faster steering winds and a less deep layer moisture than in recent days, the threat of flash flooding appears low. With recent rains, some heavy, many of the local rivers have risen above their unusually low stages. However, we do not expect them to reach action stage due to the isolated to scattered nature of the rain expected over the next few days.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 92 72 94 72 94 / 30 10 30 10 30 Panama City 89 76 90 76 91 / 30 10 30 10 30 Dothan 92 71 93 72 94 / 20 20 20 10 30 Albany 92 72 94 73 95 / 20 10 20 10 30 Valdosta 92 71 93 72 94 / 30 20 30 10 30 Cross City 92 71 93 71 92 / 40 20 30 20 40 Apalachicola 89 77 88 76 90 / 30 10 30 10 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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