Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 281447
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
947 AM EST Thu Nov 28 2013
...Another light freeze expected tonight...
.NEAR TERM [Today]...
Expect clear skies through the afternoon, with temperatures only a
few degrees warmer than yesterday. Afternoon highs will range from
around 50 degrees across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia,
to the upper 50s across the southeast Big Bend of Florida. Winds
will be a bit lighter today as well, in the 5 to 10 mph range.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Surface high pressure will lift northward tonight. However, it
still looks like another light freeze is likely, mainly along and
north of I-10. Durations will be marginal along the southern
fringe of counties, but we did upgraded all that were in the watch
to a freeze warning. It still appears that areas that get cold
enough for frost will be too dry to see any form. A moderating
trend in temps will commence on Friday as high pressure moves off
to the northeast and our low level flow gains a more easterly
component. Highs Friday will range from the upper 50s north of a
DHN-ABY line to the upper 60s in Dixie County. Lows Friday night
will dip back into the 30s for all but the coastal counties.
However, only Coffee and Dale Counties are forecast to briefly
touch freezing that night. Saturday will run 3-5 degrees warmer
than Friday with highs ranging from around 60 north of ABY to the
lower 70s south of Perry. Rain chances will be NIL through the
.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...
The upper pattern will remain zonal while at surface, ridge
dominates region with temps returning thru normal thru Sun night.
A shortwave developing over Srn plains Sat night moves east and
weakens and crosses SE region Sun night into Mon before exiting
Ern seaboard late Mon night. At surface, a wave of low pressure
moves across Nrn most Gulf Sun into Mon brushing local area. At
this time, the impact of these systems would appear to be low with
relatively light rainfall amounts and no thunder forecast. In
their wake, deep layer ridging builds over SE region into Wed.
Will go with 30 pops Sun night, 40% on Mon and 20% Mon night...
otherwise no Pops. Lows from low 40s N to around 50 S Sat night
rising to mid 40s to low 50s Sun and Mon nights, low to mid 40S Tues
night and 45 to 50 Wed night. Highs at or above normal ranging from
low-mid 60s N to low-mid 70s S on Sun, mid 60s to low 70s on Mon,
and upper 60s to low-mid 70s Tues and Wed.
.AVIATION [Beginning 15Z Thursday]...
VFR conditions under clear skies and relatively light northeast
winds are expected through the TAF.
Winds have been below advisory thresholds for a while now, and
seas recently followed suit. The small craft advisory has been
cancelled. Winds will remain moderate out of the northeast for a
couple of days and could periodically return to cautionary levels
through Saturday morning before we finally see a decided crop off
in winds for the remainder of the holiday weekend.
Although a dry airmass is in place across the region, minimum
relative humidity values will stay above critical levels and red
flag conditions are not expected at least through the weekend.
No rainfall is forecast over the weekend. While rain chances do
return early next week, significant rainfall is not anticipated.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 52 31 63 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 52 37 62 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 49 29 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 50 28 60 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 52 31 62 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 57 37 67 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 53 37 63 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 10
FL...Freeze Warning from Midnight EST (11 PM CST) tonight to 8 AM
EST (7 AM CST) Friday for most of inland north Florida.
GA...Freeze Warning from Midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Friday for
southwest and south central Georgia.
AL...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM CST Friday for