Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 150114

814 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

As has been the case the past several days, the weather pattern in our
region remains stagnant as the mid-upper level flow over much of
the CONUS continues in an omega block. Tonight will be yet another
in a string of clear, cool nights- with patchy frost and lows in
the mid 30s in the normally colder interior locations.



[Through 00Z Tuesday] Fog appears unlikely overnight due to a
deep, dry airmass. Ideal aviation conditions will continue through
Monday evening, with unrestricted Vis and unlimited cigs. Winds
will be light and variable.


.Prev Discussion [354 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Middle and upper level ridging will be pushed east out of the Tri-
State region tomorrow as a large +PV anomaly moves out of the
Central Plains into the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valleys. The
bulk of the forcing associated with the anomaly will pass well to
our north, however some +PVA will be possible locally as a piece
of the parent anomaly advects eastward. With plenty of deep layer
dry air, this will do nothing more than spread a few high clouds
overhead through the afternoon.

Monday night and Tuesday, the cold front associated with the main
anomaly will pass through the Tri-State region. Though with dry
air already spreading back in behind the leading upper-level
anomaly, and no deep layer forcing, the surface front and low-
level moisture will be the only means of generating any
precipitation across the area. Thus, expect only shallow, light
showers along the immediate front. These showers may also be
scattered in nature so only 30% PoPs are being advertised at this

With the moist return flow ahead of the front, expect both daytime
and overnight temperatures to be a few degrees above normal
through Tuesday.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Nearly zonal flow aloft, and surface high pressure will keep us
dry and yield near seasonal temperatures to finish the week. Over
the weekend, another shortwave will pass just northwest of us and
bring another weakening frontal system and a chance for showers to
the Tri-State region.


Light winds and low seas will prevail through Monday. Monday night
through Tuesday, an uptick to cautionary level winds will be
possible behind a cold front. Though the headline conditions will
likely not spread east of Apalachicola. Winds and seas will then
subside once again to finish the week.

.Fire Weather...

Fair weather will continue through Monday. Low mixing heights and
light winds will continue to keep the daytime dispersion values
unusually low on Monday. A cold front will move quickly east
across the region Tuesday afternoon, bringing scattered showers
with low rainfall totals.


Over the next week or so nearly dry conditions will prevail. A
couple of frontal systems may bring some light to moderate rain to
the region, though week-long rainfall amounts should stay below a
quarter of an inch for most spots, and almost certainly below a
half inch region-wide. Essentially no response is expected across
area rivers.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   34  70  46  73  43 /   0   0   0  30  10
Panama City   44  65  57  70  48 /   0   0  20  30  10
Dothan        38  69  51  69  41 /   0   0  30  30   0
Albany        34  68  46  70  41 /   0   0  20  30   0
Valdosta      34  68  43  73  44 /   0   0   0  20  10
Cross City    34  70  43  73  47 /   0   0   0  20  10
Apalachicola  43  65  55  71  50 /   0   0   0  30  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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