Area Forecast Discussion
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052
FXUS62 KTAE 130106
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
806 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The weather pattern has changed very little over the past 24
hours. The airmass remains relatively cool and quite dry, and we
expect another light freeze across the normally colder interior
portions of our forecast area. Widespread frost is also expected-
even where the 6 ft temperature is above freezing.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Sunday] Other than the possibility of slightly-reduced Vis
from isolated wildfire smoke, unlimited cigs & unrestricted Vis
will be the rule through at least Saturday evening. Winds will be
light (less than 10 KT) from the N-NW.

&&

.Prev Discussion [316 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

A couple of distinct +PV anomalies make up a rather amplified, but
somewhat zonally oriented eastern U.S. trough. The weaker of the
anomalies over the Southern Plains this afternoon will become
elongated and rather diffuse over the next couple of days as it
falls into a strong zonal flow regime at the base of the parent
trough. This will be inconsequential as the Southeast is moisture
starved, with rain and probably even clouds, out of the question.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail and continue to yield
cool and dry northwesterly flow, with calm winds at night.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 30s both Saturday
and Sunday night, with frost expected each night as well.
Afternoon highs will moderate through the weekend and peak in the
middle to upper 60s by Sunday.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

A brief period of high amplitude upper level ridging will spread
over the Southeast late Sunday night through Monday before another
+PV anomaly moving through the Middle Mississippi Valley returns
the Southeast to a more zonal pattern under a resultant low-
amplitude trough. With the main forcing from this anomaly forecast
to remain well north of the region, we`ll likely not see any
significant, or impactful precipitation. However, there may be
just enough upper-level diffluence to support some light showers
across the area on Tuesday. Thereafter, essentially zonal flow
will continue aloft, with weak high pressure at the surface.
Outside of Tuesday, no rain is expected, with afternoon highs and
overnight lows near seasonal values.


.Marine...

Slightly elevated winds (but below headline levels) will continue
through Saturday, until high pressure weakens across the northeast
Gulf. Sunday through next week will feature light winds and low
seas. With only a small chance for light rain on Tuesday.


.Fire Weather...

Fair and dry weather will continue through this weekend, with cool
mornings and mild afternoons. RH values were near or a little below
locally critical values this Friday afternoon, and this is likely
again on Saturday. However, other factors like ERC values and winds
are not supportive of Red Flag criteria. Due to light winds and
rather meager mixing heights, daytime dispersion values will be
unusually low.


.Hydrology...

As mentioned above, there will be a slight chance for rain on
Tuesday, though average amounts should remain below a quarter of
an inch. Thus, area rivers and streams should remain in a rather
steady state.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   32  65  33  67  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   42  65  42  65  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        35  62  36  64  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        31  63  34  66  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      32  65  33  67  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    31  67  32  68  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  40  64  40  64  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN







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