Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 250754
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
354 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2014
.Near Term (Today)...
Strong northeasterly flow today between an area of high pressure
across the Mid Atlantic States and Tropical Storm Cristobal will
bring in a much drier and slightly cooler airmass to the region.
While most of the region will be dry today, a few showers will be
possible across the southeastern Florida Big Bend where enough
moisture will remain. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler, only
in the lower 90s. The drier air from the northeast will also drop
dewpoints into the low to mid 60s across much of the area delivering
a break from high heat indices experienced over the weekend.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
After our recent 4 day Heat Wave with very high Heat Indices due to
high temps around 100 degrees with elevated dewpoints, the short
term period will will certainly feel quite a bit more comfortable
through at least mid-week. Even though highs will still average a
bit above normal, the lower afternoon dewpoints and a nice
northeasterly breeze will definitely make quite a bit of difference,
as Maximum Heat Indices will "only" be in the lower to middle 90s
across the Tri-State area. Even though this could still be
considered "hot", after 4 consecutive days of Heat Indices between
108 and 115+, this should be a welcome change for most people with
outdoor activities. PoPs will be at a minimum as well, with just a
fairly small area of 15-20% rain chances Tuesday afternoon and
evening, with a completely dry Wednesday expected. Overnight low
temps will also be noticeably more comfy, with lows ranging from the
middle 60s to the N and W to the lower 70s to the S and E.
.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Sunday]...
The GFS and ECMWF forecast an area of higher heights over the
Southeast through the period. Initially the deep layer moisture is
forecast to be limited, but by next weekend it may be sufficient
to support scattered mainly afternoon & evening storms (as opposed
to just isolated storms through Friday). Temperatures will be near
climo, with lows in the 70s and highs in the 90s.
[Through 12z Tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Gusty northeast winds are expected during the daytime hours
on Monday up to 20kts at all terminals.
Northeasterly winds have continued to increase early this morning,
as the relatively cooler and drier air moves southeast across the
marine area. In fact, although prevailing seas are not expected to
quite reach Small Craft Advisory levels, winds are well on there
way, so will begin this forecast with an Advisory, and although
there may be a few breaks at times during the daylight hours, very
rare summertime nocturnal surges will keep them from dropping too
much through Tuesday. Therefore, given the rareness of the event,
with winds not dropping below 15 to 20 knots through Tuesday,
decided to run the Small Craft Advisory until Tuesday afternoon.
Drier conditions are expected into mid week, but relative humidity
values will remain above critical levels. Thus, red flag conditions
are not anticipated.
With little to no rain expected over the next few days, river stages
and flows should continue to run below normal.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 93 70 92 69 95 / 10 10 20 10 10
Panama City 92 74 92 76 92 / 10 10 10 20 10
Dothan 91 66 92 68 94 / 0 10 10 10 10
Albany 91 67 92 68 93 / 0 0 10 10 10
Valdosta 91 69 92 67 96 / 10 10 20 10 10
Cross City 90 70 91 68 94 / 30 10 20 10 10
Apalachicola 92 75 91 76 90 / 10 10 10 20 10
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Tuesday for Apalachee Bay-
Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.