Area Forecast Discussion
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381
FXUS62 KTAE 161408
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1008 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 12Z Tallahassee sounding revealed continued drying in the
850-700mb layer from last evening, and the precipitable water had
fallen to just 1.25", which is 66% of normal and about 2 standard
deviations below normal. GOES blended total PWAT product indicated
that values were below 1.7" (25th percentile value for August at
Tallahassee) across the entire area, indicating that the mid-level
dry air had essentially advected into the entire forecast area.
This is expected to suppress nearly all convective development
today, except for perhaps an isolated shower or thunderstorm in
the offshore coastal waters or very near the Suwannee River. The
previous forecast handled this well, so no notable changes were
made. It should be a mostly sunny day with highs in the mid-90s
away from the coast, and near 90 at the coast.

&&

.Prev Discussion [645 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

With essentially zonal flow aloft, and no appreciable synoptic
forcing, expect the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity
to originate offshore. The southwesterly convergent regime will
force showers inland during the morning and afternoon both Sunday
and Monday and will likely disrupt any meaningful sea breeze
circulations. On Monday, our northernmost GA and AL counties may
get clipped by showers and thunderstorms being forced by a
shortwave passing through northern Alabama and Georgia.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Nearly zonal flow will gradually be replaced by building upper
level ridging across the SE U.S. through the entire extended
period, while a weak Sfc high pressure system generally remains in
place across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This type of synoptic
pattern with potential stacked ridging should result in a
prolonged period of hot and humid conditions across the entire
CWA, with below normal PoPs forced only by the diurnal sea breeze
circulation. High temps should at least be in the mid 90s away
from the coast, with some upper 90s certainly possible by mid to
late week. Overnight lows will mainly be in the very muggy mid to
upper 70s.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

Except for a brief period of light fog (MVFR VIS) at KTLH & KVLD
this morning, VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be light west
to southwest, picking up a bit out of the southwest this afternoon
to near 10 KT at  KTLH with the onshore sea breeze.


.Marine...

Modest southwesterly flow will prevail for the next few days,
though seas should remain in the 1 to 2 foot range. Expect showers
and thunderstorms each morning.


.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. The
lack of significant, widespread rain the next few days will continue
to allow fuels and soil moisture to dry.


.Hydrology...

Significant rainfall is not expected over the next several days
and all area rivers should remain below action stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  72  92  76  94 /   0  10  40  20  50
Panama City   90  76  89  78  90 /  10  30  40  40  50
Dothan        93  72  93  74  93 /   0   0  40  20  50
Albany        95  71  95  74  92 /   0   0  40  20  50
Valdosta      95  71  92  74  90 /  10   0  20  20  50
Cross City    92  73  93  74  92 /  20  20  30  20  40
Apalachicola  92  77  90  78  90 /  10  30  40  30  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN






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