Area Forecast Discussion
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251
FXUS62 KTAE 111848
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
248 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A weak shortwave is passing by the region this afternoon in the
otherwise zonal flow aloft. This is helping to enhance the cu field
as well as generate plenty of cirrus. Skies should clear overnight
as the shortwave exits to the east. Otherwise, the weather will be
dry overnight with lows dropping into lower to mid 50s. With the
gradual increase in low level moisture, may see some patchy fog
late. However, dense fog is not expected.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
A surface ridge of high pressure will remain in place through the
weekend and keep conditions mild and pleasant ahead of the next
weather system arriving early next week /see extended discussion below/.
Light southeast winds will begin influx of higher RH by Sunday
which could support patchy fog both Saturday and Sunday mornings
around the region. This will also result in overnight lows
warming a bit through the weekend. Afternoon highs are expected to
top out in the lower to mid 80s away from the immediate beaches
with overnight lows in the lower 50s Sat morning and around 60 to
start the day Sunday. Sea breeze circulations should become well
established each afternoon given the cool shelf waters and land
temps in the lower 80s, keeping the beaches a bit cooler. Rain
chances are expected to remain slim to none until perhaps late
Sunday night into Monday.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Guidance is in general agreement with a trough developing over the
central portion of the country early next week. However, there are
still timing/strength difference in the handling of the two main
shortwaves that will be responsible for generating the trough. The
GFS is a little weaker and keeps the best instability and shear out
of phase through Tuesday, resulting in a lesser severe threat. The
00z ECMWF was a little more bullish on the potential for strong to
severe storms. Regardless of the severe threat, it does appear that
another round of significant rainfall will impact the region on
Monday and Tuesday.

Thereafter, the pattern is forecast to become a bit less
progressive, with a ridge building off the east coast and surface
high pressure nosing down the eastern seaboard. This will result in
a more easterly to northeasterly flow pattern, and the potential for a
few showers to move back into the region late in the work week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]  Broken deck has developed this afternoon
around 5kft. This should persist through the afternoon before
dissipating early in the evening. Some brief MVFR visibility is
possible once again Saturday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions
should prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
Benign conditions will be the norm to start the weekend as high
pressure remains in place. Late Sunday into Monday winds and waves will
begin increasing ahead of our next weather system expected to
bring increasing winds and seas, along with a good chance of
showers/thunderstorms early next week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Low level moisture will continue to slowly increase through the
weekend, with RH values remaining above critical levels. Transport
winds are forecast to increase by Sunday, with dispersion values
rising above 75 for much of the region.

&&

.Hydrology...
Modest rises are still occurring across portions of the lower
Choctawhatchee River, Apalachicola River, Flint River, Ochlockonee
River, and Steinhatchee Rivers. The next chance of rainfall is on
Monday into Tuesday. The system currently appears progressive
enough to prevent excessive rainfall, but rainfall amounts may be
enough to temporarily halt some of the river falls.

The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be
found on the AHPS page at
http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  82  56  83  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   58  76  62  77  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        53  81  57  81  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        54  82  55  82  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      55  85  55  85  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    56  83  55  82  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  58  77  61  76  64 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...EVANS
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...EVANS
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...EVANS






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