Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 102345
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
745 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Convection was greatly inhibited today and only a few stray
showers are expected to persist past 00Z. PoPs have been capped at
10 for the evening. The latest local WRF and other CAMs support
isolated showers and storms developing over the Gulf of Mexico
later tonight. The rest of the forecast looks on track.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday] Low ceilings and visibilities will spread
in from the east, and also develop over our western terminals
through the night. With the exception of ECP, all terminals should
experience at least MVFR, but more likely IFR at VLD and DHN.
Tomorrow will feature another day of suppressed convection with
only VCTS mentioned at ECP and TLH.

&&

.Prev Discussion [329 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
The elongated upper level ridge that stretches across the Gulf Coast
states will have its highest heights centered over our forecast area
through this period. This will have the overall effect of
suppressing convection, especially on Thursday when most areas will
only see a 20 PoP. By Friday, the tropical wave currently over the
Bahamas will be entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico and may help to
enhance convective coverage a bit over our eastern zones during the
afternoon and evening hours. Temps will be above normal through the
period with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s and overnight
lows generally in the lower 70s.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The tropical wave will be east of the area on Saturday and
increasing deep layer moisture will bring PoPs back to more
typical levels, around 40% for most areas. There are model
discrepancies from Monday onward in terms of how well, if at all,
any weak upper ridging will becomes re-established along the Gulf
Coast. The 09/12Z Euro certainly supports that, while the latest
GFS continued the trend of deepening a trough into the Southeast.
Even with the latter solution, it does not appear that a cold
front will make it too far into the area, if at all. The proximity
of the front will enhance PoPs during the work week. Temps will
start out a couple of degrees above normal (lower 90s) and then
edge gradually downward to the mid/upper 80s by midweek.


.Marine...
A very weak pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place. This
will keep winds and seas well below any headline criteria. Wind
direction will primarily be out of the southeast with periods of
easterlies over the weekend.


.Fire Weather...
No fire weather concerns at least through the upcoming weekend.


.Hydrology...
Rises have slowed and in some cases reversed on area rivers.
Rainfall totals over the next several days are not expected to have
a significant impact on these trends.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  30  20
Panama City   76  90  76  91  77 /  10  30  10  20  20
Dothan        71  93  72  94  72 /  10  20  10  20  20
Albany        72  94  73  95  74 /  10  20  10  30  30
Valdosta      71  94  71  94  72 /  10  20  10  30  30
Cross City    71  93  71  93  71 /  10  20  10  30  20
Apalachicola  75  89  75  90  77 /  10  30  10  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...WOOL






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