Area Forecast Discussion
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697
FXUS62 KTAE 162133
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
533 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
An amplified long wave trough dominates much of eastern North
America this afternoon. This trough has helped to drive the second
cold front of the month all the way to the Gulf Coast (west of
here). The drier airmass is making very slow southeastward progress.
By 00Z, the front should extend roughly from Destin to Marianna to
Tifton. Our northwestern zones should be rain-free today. However,
the eastern Florida Big Bend will see scattered convection
for a bit longer this afternoon.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
In the wake of the front tonight into Thursday morning, drier and
slightly cooler conditions will prevail through the remainder of the
week. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the lower 90s each
afternoon, with overnight lows dipping as low as the middle 60s on
Thursday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
Saturday morning a low pressure system will move into the region,
bringing plenty of clouds and increasing rain chances. The sfc low
will move out by Monday morning but the cold front will likely stall
out over the southeast states supported by an upper level trough.
This upper level trough will linger throughout the remainder of the
forecast period increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Expect lows in the lower 70s and highs around 90.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday] MVFR ceiling at ABY will lift this
afternoon. Convection will be possible at TLH and VLD this
afternoon and this could briefly lower cigs/vis to MVFR/IFR. Skies
will clear from northwest to southeast late this afternoon and
evening with light winds behind a cold front.

&&

.Marine...
A weak pressure pattern will dominate our Gulf waters beginning
tonight and lasting into next week. This will preclude any headline
conditions through at least mid-week next week. Dry conditions will
begin tomorrow and last through the remainder of the week when
typical summertime showers and storms return to start the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Though we will have a couple of unseasonably dry days to finish
the week, hazardous RH levels are not expected to be reached.
Thus, there are no fire weather concerns into next week.

&&

.Hydrology...
Some areas could see up to an inch of rain today. The rest of the
work week should be dry with rain likely returning this weekend.
Current river levels are below flood stage and this is expected to
continue.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  93  66  95  72 /  20   0   0  10  10
Panama City   72  89  72  91  75 /  10   0   0  10  10
Dothan        64  91  66  93  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        65  92  66  94  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      66  92  67  93  70 /  30   0   0  10  10
Cross City    70  92  69  93  69 /  30   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  71  87  70  89  73 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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