Area Forecast Discussion
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546
FXUS62 KTAE 140806
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
406 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE LAST LINGERING SHOWERS AND MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A DEAMPLIFYING AND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. THE CLEARING SKIES ALOFT
COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING, WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. THE FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13 UTC AND 14 UTC.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TODAY, MODELS SEEM TO BE SUGGESTING A
DEPARTURE FROM RECENT DAYS WITH MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS OF 08 UTC, THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
JUST OFFSHORE OF COASTAL ALABAMA. THESE MAY DRIFT TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COAST BY MID MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE, BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD BE
FOCUSED AFTER ABOUT 16-17 UTC (NOON - 1 PM EDT). HI-RES MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INITIATING CONVECTION NEAR I-10 AND
THEN DRIFTING IT NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS (60%) NORTH, WITH THE LOWEST POPS (20%) NEAR THE TAYLOR
AND DIXIE COUNTY COASTLINES. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
LAYER OF DRIER AIR TODAY IN THE MID LEVELS (10-15 KFT), WHICH SHOULD
REDUCE THE PWATS SOMEWHAT. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION COULD STILL LEAD
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT THE DRY LAYER ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR A
FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL
DELTA THETAE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20-25C BY MOST MODELS.
WITH LESS MORNING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN TODAY THAN IN RECENT DAYS, IT
SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA. WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S, WITH A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL OPEN UP AND
KICKED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF COAST REGION
UNDER WSW UPPER FLOW WITH RIPPLES OF ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD FROM
TIME TO TIME. A SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION,
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY COULD BACK DOOR INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA ON
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
CAROLINAS. PWATS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH WITH
LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR VALUES RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL KEEP
DAYTIME TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL CONTINUE RUNNING SOME 15-18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.|


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
BEFORE OPENING UP AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
REMAIN SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP/EVOLVE OVER THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS RUN
BACKED OFF ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM THE 18Z RUN AND NOW
DELAYS ANY DRYING UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THEREFORE,
LOOK FOR MORE OF THE SAME ATYPICAL APRIL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY] LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE TERMINALS
EXPECTED TO SEE IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BY MIDDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH ANY OF THE TERMINALS COULD
EXPERIENCE A SHOWER OR STORM, RAIN IS MOST LIKELY AT ABY AND VLD.
STORMS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 10, AND POSSIBLY
JUST NORTH OF ECP AND TLH, BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY AND
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD STAY HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP
RISES ON THE CHIPOLA RIVER WITH RISES ALSO NOTED ON THE
CHOCTAWHATCHEE, PEA AND SHOAL RIVERS. FOR THE MOST PART, AREA
RIVERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG
BEND TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THESE
TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA
RIVERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   87  68  82  67  83 /  40  40  50  50  60
PANAMA CITY   80  69  78  68  79 /  40  50  60  40  50
DOTHAN        84  65  81  65  80 /  60  50  60  50  60
ALBANY        86  66  81  65  78 /  60  50  70  60  60
VALDOSTA      88  67  83  66  82 /  40  40  60  50  60
CROSS CITY    89  67  84  67  82 /  20  30  50  40  60
APALACHICOLA  81  72  79  70  81 /  30  40  50  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WOOL



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