Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 260810
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
310 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

.Near Term [Today]...

As a strong area of low pressure departs the region today, high
pressure will build in its wake. The squall line that affected
the southeast big bend was impressive for this part of the
forecast area, and it was supported by extremely strong
environmental winds aloft. In fact, the 26/00Z KTAE sounding
measured an 850 mb wind of 62 knots, and this ties the record for
the strongest observed 850 mb wind for Tallahassee for either a
00Z or 12z sounding.

Residual low level moisture is expected to keep conditions mostly
cloudy through the day with high temperatures ranging from the
lower 50s across the northwest to the lower 60s across the
southeast big bend.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The trend over the short term period will be a gradually building
ridge aloft (500mb heights increase 130m), while the area remains
situated on the southern periphery of an east coast surface high
pressure. This will keep the weather mostly dry but with cooler-
than-normal temperatures. However, it does appear most locations
will avoid overnight freezes. Small rain chances return on
Saturday as a few rain showers will be possible in the southeast
half of the area as return flow and low-mid level moisture
increase.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

By next week, the ridge aloft should be firmly established over
the Southeast with the east coast surface ridge eroding. This will
set up more of a southerly component to the return flow and allow
temperatures to finally increase. Depending on eventual cloud
cover, a few locations could hit the 80 degree mark early next
week. The forecast calls for mostly mid-upper 70s in the Monday to
Wednesday timeframe right now. Some small rain chances are in the
forecast as models do generate some light QPF, however the primary
QG forcing is currently expected to remain to our north and west.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Friday] As an area of low pressure moves away from
the area, residual low level moisture is expected to allow for
low clouds to persist through much of the period with ceilings
ranging from MVFR to IFR.

&&

.Marine...

With 07Z buoy and tower observations still indicating advisory
level winds over much of the coastal waters, and seas as high as
10 feet about 60NM offshore, the Small Craft Advisory was extended
until 12Z. Winds and seas should diminish this morning. SCEC level
winds will likely return tonight with breezy northeast to east
winds persisting into the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

A large swath of 1-2 inches of rain fell across the area. For the
most part, rivers will remain below minor flood stage, although
several points will reach action stage. One exception may be the
Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson, which could reach minor flood stage
this weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   56  37  61  40  63 /  10  10   0  10  20
Panama City   54  39  57  43  61 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        51  34  54  36  58 /  10  10   0  10  10
Albany        53  35  56  37  56 /  10  10   0  10  20
Valdosta      55  39  60  41  60 /  10  10   0  10  30
Cross City    61  41  64  45  66 /  10  10  10  10  40
Apalachicola  57  42  59  47  63 /  10   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     all zones.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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