Area Forecast Discussion
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355
FXUS62 KTAE 120810
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
410 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

WE HAVE SEEN SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT AT
INDIVIDUAL STATIONS THE LOW VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENT -
LIKELY DUE TO PATCHY CLOUD LAYERS ALOFT. IN GENERAL, THE DENSE FOG
HAS BEEN MORE COMMON IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA AS MID-HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT FURTHER WEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OBSERVATIONS FOR GREATER PERSISTENCE OF DENSE FOG SPATIALLY
AND TEMPORALLY IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY.

WITH A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRANSLATING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST, A
STALLED SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION, AND EVEN SOME SUBTLE
JET STREAK COUPLING ALOFT - THE FORECAST FOR TODAY INCLUDES "LIKELY"
RAIN CHANCES OF 60-70% OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE DETAILS
WITH A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN. IN GENERAL, VERTICAL MOTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND EVIDENCE OF THIS
TREND (AS OF 07 UTC) IS CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR COASTAL LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN.
MANY HI-RES MODELS DEVELOP SOME BANDS OF STEADY RAIN NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST BY 12 UTC, FILLING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18 UTC. PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON IS THEN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, AND WILL BE
TIED TO THE DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IN THE MORNING.
RIGHT NOW, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE THAT MORE DENSE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR
AREA, MAKING GREATER INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MORE
LIKELY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA (EAST OF ABY-TLH) AND PERHAPS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES WAS KEPT
SOMEWHAT VAGUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES ALREADY
DISCUSSED. TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED SATELLITE AND
THE EXPECTATION OF A SOMEWHAT RAINY DAY.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THROUGH TUESDAY, THE TRI-STATE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A VERY
DISTURBED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, THE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST, WELL OUT INTO THE ATANTIC BY TUESDAY WITH BROAD
TROUGHING TAKING OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

TWO SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, ONE ON MONDAY AND ONE ON TUESDAY. THESE WAVES WILL LINK
UP WITH ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND THE 300K WINDOW AND
RESULT IN SOME WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EACH DAY. TUESDAY
MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ONLY BECAUSE THE
LOWER LEVEL ASCENT WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH AS ISENTROPIC SURFACES
EASE A BIT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. NONETHELESS, THE SHORTWAVE
ALOFT SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO FORCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO COME BY ON MONDAY, THOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER
INCREASES INTO TUESDAY AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES ADVECT IN ALOFT.

HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANCES
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE YET ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS A RATHER POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM ANOMALY
LINKS UP WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WE`LL STILL
HANG ON TO ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES TO FINISH THE WEEK AS WE
REMAIN IN THE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY FEATURE SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY]

FLUCTUATING CIGS AND VIS ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY THROUGH 14 UTC. ANY OF THE TERMINALS COULD SEE
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LIFR RANGE, BUT THEY WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT
TLH AND VLD. RAIN WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE, WITH A
TREND TOWARD MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON; RIGHT NOW THUNDER SEEMS MOST LIKELY AT
ABY AND VLD BETWEEN 18 UTC AND 00 UTC. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

IN GENERAL, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MOIST AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON REMAINING ABOVE 60 PERCENT.
THERE SHOULD BE A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. EVEN THOUGH A WETTING
RAIN MAY NOT BE LIKELY EACH DAY, MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A
WETTING RAIN SOMETIME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH
AVERAGE TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK...HIGHEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH CONVECTION...LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. THESE AMOUNTS MAY FORCE SOME RIVERS INTO
ACTION OR EVEN MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   81  69  77  69  81 /  60  60  70  50  60
PANAMA CITY   77  71  76  72  78 /  70  60  60  50  50
DOTHAN        76  67  76  68  81 /  60  70  80  60  60
ALBANY        77  66  77  67  81 /  60  60  80  60  70
VALDOSTA      78  67  78  67  82 /  60  50  80  50  70
CROSS CITY    83  69  79  70  81 /  60  30  70  50  50
APALACHICOLA  79  72  76  72  78 /  60  50  60  50  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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