Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 241901
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
301 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2014
.Near Term [Through tonight]...
An upper level low sits over the Carolinas today as high pressure
is at the sfc over the southeast. High pressure will bring
northeasterly winds with cooler drier air. With a tighter pressure
gradient today winds will be gusty at times with max gusts of 20
mph expected this afternoon. Cloud cover could linger throughout
the day in parts of southwest GA. Highs will be in the low 80s
.Short Term [Wednesday through Through Friday night]...
A trough of low pressure along the southeast coast, along with
high pressure over New England, will keep northeasterly flow in
place across the forecast area through the end of the work week.
Expect to see a continuation of the morning clouds and afternoon
sun with high temperatures around seasonal normals. Rain chances
will begin to increase on Friday as the surface trough (enhanced
by a weak tropical wave) begins to slide to the east. Best rain
chances on Friday will be over the southeastern third of the
forecast area. however, isolated showers will be possible
elsewhere as well.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
A weak inverted trough will move across the northeastern Gulf
Coast during the weekend. This will generate showers and isolated
thunderstorms as deep layer moisture increases. Initially, best
rain chances will be across the southern half of the forecast
area. However, by late in the weekend a developing trough over the
Southern Plains will pull the moisture further north, with
enhanced rain chances across the remainder of the area. With
precipitable water values possibly exceeding 2 inches, there will
be some potential for locally heavy rainfall. Into Monday and
Tuesday, the global guidance diverges with the ECMWF cutting off
an upper low over the Arklatex and pushing a strong front into the
Deep South. The GFS is much weaker and more progressive with its
evolution. At this time, have leaned more towards the wetter ECMWF
solution for Monday and Monday night.
With the approach of the inverted trough and it`s more tropical
airmass, temperatures will likely be a bit above normal for the
weekend into early next week (especially for min temps).
[Through 18Z Thursday] Ceilings are expected to scatter out this
afternoon with the exception of perhaps VLD and ABY. Northeast
winds will be gusting up to 20kts in the afternoon. MVFR cigs are
expected to develop overnight. Isolated IFR cigs are possible just
before sunrise. Ceilings are expected to scatter out around mid-
Northeasterly flow will continue into Saturday with a trough of
low pressure situated off the northeast Florida coast. Nocturnal
surges will push winds to near exercise caution levels each of the
next few nights. Winds will become more easterly to southeasterly
late in the weekend into early next week.
Gradually increasing moisture levels over the next several days will
preclude red flag criteria from being reached.
On Friday we`ll begin to transition to a wet pattern which could
bring 2+ inches of rain, over a few day stretch, to the region.
Specifically, north Florida appears as though it will be affected
most by the upcoming rain. However, with most rivers across
Florida in low-flow stages, seven day rainfall amounts should not
result in flooding levels along local rivers.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 63 85 67 87 72 / 0 10 10 30 30
Panama City 67 85 70 88 73 / 10 0 10 20 30
Dothan 62 82 65 86 68 / 0 0 10 20 20
Albany 62 83 67 86 70 / 0 0 10 20 20
Valdosta 63 83 67 87 70 / 10 10 10 40 30
Cross City 66 85 70 87 71 / 10 20 20 50 40
Apalachicola 69 84 71 86 75 / 10 10 10 30 30