Area Forecast Discussion
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935
FXUS62 KTAE 191339
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
839 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 8 am EST regional surface analysis showed a high pressure
ridge near and along I-10 in north FL, and several of our normally
colder inland sites had a light freeze. Temperatures will rebound
to a few degrees above average this afternoon, with highs in the
mid to upper 60s, light winds, and sunny skies.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Tuesday] Unlimited cigs/unrestricted Vis will
continue into this evening, with SW winds 5 to 8 KT this
afternoon. Some of the guidance was beginning to indicate a chance
for lower cigs (MVFR) and/or light fog around KDHN and KECP around
dawn Tuesday, and we will revisit this on our 1 pm EST TAF
package.

&&

.Prev Discussion [357 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

The mid to upper level flow will be nearly zonal through the period.
The exception will be Tuesday night with the approach and passage of
an upper level disturbance and weak surface cold front. We expect
little if any rain and for now will show only a slight PoP over
portions of the Florida panhandle and adjacent waters. After one
more night of below normal temps tonight, min and max temps will
moderate to above seasonal levels. Tuesday will see highs around 70
to the lower 70s with only slightly cooler temps Wednesday after the
passage of the cold front.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

A developing low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico combined with
cool high pressure off to the northwest will make for another period
of cold and wet conditions across the area Thursday night and
Friday. At this time, it appears this system should clear the region
by the weekend with a likely return to fair and seasonable
conditions.


.Marine...

Winds will be light and seas low through mid week. Winds and seas
will begin to increase by late Wednesday or Wednesday night as a
low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico approaches from the
west. Cautionary conditions possibly reaching advisory levels
will sweep across the local waters Thursday night into Friday.


.Fire Weather...

A rather dry airmass will be in place today across the region, with
minimum humidity values in the mid to upper 20s. However, with very
light winds and sufficient soil moisture conditions, no Red Flag
conditions are anticipated. Low-level moisture will gradually
increase the middle of the week.


.Hydrology...

Area rivers and streams should continue to slowly subside across the
HSA for the next several days, with no significant rainfall on the
horizon. The next chance for a widespread wetting rainfall across
the basins is not expected until the very end of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  35  72  47  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
Panama City   63  46  68  52  65 /   0   0  10  20  10
Dothan        66  42  69  46  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
Albany        66  38  69  48  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
Valdosta      67  37  72  48  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
Cross City    68  36  72  47  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  64  44  68  51  68 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GOULD






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