Area Forecast Discussion
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050
FXUS62 KTAE 231347
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
947 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Last fog has burned off and lingering low stratus beginning to do
the same. Otherwise, the larger scale regional pattern is highlighted
looking west by a quasi-stnry mid-upper low centered near New
Orleans this morning. Looking east, high off of Cntrl FL with
assocd N-S ridge moving west into FL. Locally, this has resulted
in rising heights, negative vorticity advection and dry mid-level
air spreading Nwd over CWA which should aid in suppressing
convective activity. At surface, weakening boundary draped across
mid-south and ridge across Cntrl FL/Gulf waters. All this will
keep deep layer onshore flow and PWATs around 1.4-1.5 inches over
local region as reflected in 12z RAOBs and model soundings. Gulf
sea breeze should have just enough lift for 20% chance of aftn
convection and tweaked POP grids accordingly. Based on current
trends, tweaked down temps 1-2 degrees mainly Ern counties. High
temperatures should be in the low 90s west to mid 90s east with
plenty of sunshine.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Thursday]...VFR conditions will prevail with some
isolated thunderstorms developing in the afternoon, but coverage was
too low to mention in the TAFs...except at TLH where VCTS was
included after 19Z. After 08Z Thurs, MVFR VSBYS are likely
especially at ABY/VLD.

&&

.Prev Discussion [151 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The GFS and ECMWF finally dissipate the cutoff low to our west
tonight, but then carve out a long wave trough over much of the
eastern CONUS over the later part of the work week. The 00 UTC GFS
solution predicts somewhat greater deep layer moisture than the 12
UTC ECMWF, and their corresponding MOS PoPs reflect this difference.
Our forecast is blend of the two solutions, with a little more
weight toward the GFS (given that this is climatologically our
wettest time of year). The resulting PoP forecast is in the 30-40%
range, which is still slightly below climo values. With below-climo
PoPs/clouds comes warm high temperatures, with highs in the mid 90s
(upper 80s beaches). As one might expect this time of year, there
doesn`t appear to be a significant threat for organized severe
storms due  primarily to weak winds aloft.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The region will be dominated by high pressure at the sfc and an
upper level ridge through Sunday. As a result, expect only a slight
chance for afternoon/evening rain and thunderstorms. Late Monday an
upper level trough moves in and increases afternoon/evening precip
chances for the remainder of the forecast period. A stationary
boundary is expected to linger over the area Tuesday and Wednesday.
In addition to the increased rain chance expect abundant cloud
cover. Expect lows in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 90s.


.Marine...

Winds will generally be from the southwest around 10 KT through this
weekend, except for an increase to 10 to 15 KT near the coast during
the late afternoon and evening hours from strong daytime heating.
Significant wave heights will be mainly 2 ft or less.


.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected this week despite some slightly
drier weather (in terms of rain chances).


.Hydrology...

Given the expectation of only isolated to scattered thunderstorms
through Friday, it`s unlikely that flash flooding or river
flooding will occur.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  73  93  74  93 /  30   0  30  20  30
Panama City   90  76  89  77  89 /  30   0  30  20  30
Dothan        93  72  92  73  93 /  20   0  40  20  30
Albany        95  73  93  74  93 /  20  10  40  20  30
Valdosta      97  72  95  73  93 /  20   0  30  20  40
Cross City    94  73  92  72  92 /  30   0  30  20  30
Apalachicola  89  77  89  77  88 /  30   0  30  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER






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