Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 291922
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
222 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2013
...Dry and Warmer Weather Expected Through the Weekend...
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure remains in control at the surface with plenty of
dry air aloft. Northeasterly low-layer flow will continue to
moisten the Tri-State area as the surface ridge elongates across
the Eastern Seaboard. As the ridge builds down the east coast, the
gradient will increase enough to prevent winds from going calm
overnight. Working in tandem with the increasing moisture, the
tightened gradient will keep temperatures from falling to the
freezing mark (except possibly patchy spots across southeast
Alabama and the western Florida panhandle). Further, the light
winds will likely prevent any frost formation overnight. Low
clouds will be a possibility with the low level moisture surge,
primarily east of a line from Albany to Tallahassee. In clouds,
temperatures will struggle to fall below the 40 degree mark.
.SHORT TERM [Saturday through Monday]...
The large scale pattern begins with a series of shortwaves riding
east in Nrn stream while broad ridging develops over SE region in the
wake of departing weak shortwave. At surface, high off New England
with ridge building down Ern seaboard and coastal trough from off
NE FL to off SC. This combination will tighten local gradients.
Sunrise temps will be warmer than previous mornings, and a freeze
even for in the northwest corner of Coffee and Dale counties is
During the rest of the period, broad ridging will weaken as a series
of shortwave move Ewd ahead of Cntrl Plains trough. This upper trough
will move Ewd and deepen into longwave trough on Mon over SE
region bringing increasing mid and high clouds but will be
moisture starved especially at low levels before axis exits Ewd by
sundown then offshore Mon night. At surface, high moves further
into Atlc and ridge/gradients weaken somewhat thru Sun in
response to approaching upper trough. NE flow will suppress
convection but should be sufficient for low clouds and possibly
isolated light shwrs to move Swwd to reach especially our Ern
counties over weekend. NE flow, weakening pressure gradient and
higher PWATS should also be just enough to generate some fog most
sites late Sat night into early Sun but especially the next night
ahead of front.
Nil POPS thru Sun night then wdly sct POPs on Mon. Warming trend to
AOA climo thru period. Expect highs Sat from 60 North to 70 SE Big
Bend rising on Sun and Mon to mid 60s North to 70-73 SE Big Bend.
Lows Sat night from low 40s North to around 50 SE Big Bend and on
Sun night from mid 40s North to low 50s.
.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The longwave trough over SE region on Mon exits ewd on Mon night
with upstream ridge and rising heights overspreading region with
axis overhead Wed aftn. It lingers into Thurs before exiting Ewd in
response to full latitude trough developing over Plains with
increasing SWLY steering flow shifting Ewd. This trough then lifts
Newd thru Fri taking much of dynamics with it. Atlc surface low
moves Newd into open waters Mon night into early Tues while another
low moves from Plains to across Great Lakes thru period dragging a
trailing cold front ESE reaching Cntrl AL by end of period with Atlc
high moving increasing Ewd. All this places local area increasingly
in warm sector but moisture will remain limited.
Generally isold to wdly sct light pops Sat night Thurs then wdly
sct-lo sct Thurs night and wdly sct-sct pops Fri and Fri night.
Temps will rise thru the period to above climo. Expect Inland lows
generally in mid 40s Mon night, low 40s Tues night, mid to upper 40s
Wed night rising to low to mid 50s Thurs night and mid 50s Fri
night. Inland highs Tues mid to upper 60s, 67 to 74 Wed and 70 to 75
Thurs and mid 70s on Fri.
VFR conditions are anticipated at all terminals but KVLD
overnight. Late tonight, MVFR ceilings will overspread KVLD from
the east. It is uncertain whether or not the restrictions will
reach KABY and KTLH. A scattered to broken top-end MVFR deck will
be possible tomorrow afternoon at KTLH, KABY, and KVLD, with the
best chance for restrictions at KVLD and KABY.
Moderate to marginally strong NE winds will persist through Saturday
night, with periods of "Exercise Caution" conditions possible over
the outer coastal waters. After a lengthy period of rough boating
conditions, winds and seas will finally fall to low levels during
the day on Sunday, and last at least into early next week as the
pressure gradient weakens considerably.
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds
for the next several days. Thus, hazardous fire weather conditions
are not anticipated.
Area rivers elevated from rainfall earlier in the week are now
receding. Rainfall totals through Wednesday are expected to be less
than a quarter inch and should not have any impact on river stages.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 40 65 45 68 49 / 0 0 0 10 20
Panama City 41 64 50 67 54 / 0 0 0 10 20
Dothan 35 60 42 65 47 / 0 0 0 10 20
Albany 36 60 42 64 46 / 0 0 10 10 20
Valdosta 41 64 45 66 50 / 0 10 10 10 20
Cross City 43 71 50 73 52 / 0 10 10 10 20
Apalachicola 42 64 51 67 54 / 0 0 0 10 20
NEAR TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX/...Harrigan
REST OF DISCUSSION...Block