Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 162049

349 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2014

...Slight Risk of Severe Storms Late Tonight and Monday...

...Record Cold Temperatures Expected This Week...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
After another fairly chilly start across the CWA this morning,
afternoon temps have actually recovered fairly well, especially
where the low clouds have broken up and lifted across much of the
Florida Big Bend. Locations like Tallahassee, which were supposed
to top out in the lower 70s are now headed into the upper 70s,
while areas that have remained more covered in clouds have held in
the upper 60s. Lows tonight should be much milder than recent nights
(although for just a very brief period), and are expected to range
from the mid to upper 50s to the lower 60s as cloud cover will be
rapidly on the increase out ahead of the next cold front. PoPs
will also be on the increase from W to E by late tonight, and if
we are able to attain sufficient instability, the possibility for
a severe storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the FL
Panhandle and adjacent coastal waters towards Sunrise Monday
morning, so added Isolated T+ to the grids from 09 to 12 UTC in
this area.

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Showers and thunderstorms spread across the forecast area from
west to east Monday morning ahead of the approaching cold front.
Guidance continues to indicate a rapid recovery to the low-level
airmass, with dewpoints reaching the upper 60s over the southern
half of the area. These dewpoints will help to support surface-
based CAPE approaching 1000j/kg during the morning and early
afternoon hours ahead of the front. With deep-layer shear aoa 50
knots and 0-1km shear around 30 knots, expect to see a few strong
to possibly severe cells develop either just ahead of, or embedded
within the main line of showers and storms. Isolated tornadoes and
damaging straight-line winds appear to be the primary threats,
with the area highlighted in the Slight Risk area of the SPC Day 2

The front should move into the western zones shortly after 12z,
reach the Tallahassee area by 18z, and be exiting the southeastern
Big Bend by late in the afternoon. Very strong cold air advection
will commence immediately following the frontal passage, with
temperatures falling for much of the day over the western half of
the forecast area. Roughly the northwestern half of the CWA will
likely fall below freezing by sunrise on Tuesday, and a Freeze
Watch has been issued for these counties. With the expected winds,
may see Wind Chill reading briefly fall below 20 degrees in
southeast Alabama.

With the continuing cold air advection on Wednesday, temperatures
will struggle into the 40s, with only the immediate coast and
southeastern Big Bend having a shot at getting above 50 degrees.
The coldest night will be Tuesday night as the surface high
settles in over central/south Georgia, creating ideal radiational
cooling conditions. A widespread hard freeze is likely with low
temperatures reaching the lower 20 away from the immediated coast.
There may even be a few upper teens in SE Alabama and the inland
Florida Panhandle. This will likely be record breaking cold for
the date.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
A slow and gradual warming trend will begin on Wednesday. However,
highs will still only reach the lower 50s by afternoon, and
another solid freeze is expected Wednesday night. Highs through
the remainder of the week should make it into the 60s, but even
this will be a few degrees below normal. More substantial warming
will likely have to wait until late in the weekend ahead of the
next significant front and chance of rain.


[Through 18Z Monday] VFR to MVFR level conditions should hold for
the daylight hours today, but MVFR level cigs should begin to re-
develop once again shortly after sunset. After 06 UTC tonight,
showers and storms may begin to approach from either the
northwest along the front or out of the southwest ahead of the
front. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact all terminals
Monday with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Winds will become NW
with the frontal passage.


Conditions over the coastal waters will deteriorate tonight ahead
of an approaching cold front. Onshore winds will reach Small Craft
Advisory conditions late tonight, with winds becoming offshore
during the day behind the front. Frequent gusts to Gale Force will
be possible over the offshore legs Monday night, with Small Craft
Advisory conditions elsewhere. Winds and seas will finally
diminish Tuesday night as high pressure builds into the area.


.Fire Weather...
Conditions will be very wet and humid with wet flags posted for
Monday, before much colder and drier air moves in for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Depending on how cold and dry it ultimately gets
(providing the cold air does not cancel out the dry air), Red Flag
conditions could be a distinct possibility by the middle of next


Rainfall totals associated with the approaching cold front are
forecast to remain generally below 1 inch. These amounts may lead
to minor rises on area rivers and streams, but have little overall


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   59  74  33  49  22 /  40  90  10   0   0
Panama City   63  71  34  50  30 /  70 100  10   0   0
Dothan        57  67  27  44  23 /  70 100  10   0   0
Albany        57  70  28  47  22 /  50 100  10   0   0
Valdosta      58  73  33  49  23 /  30  90  50   0   0
Cross City    60  74  40  52  23 /  20  90  50   0   0
Apalachicola  65  73  37  51  29 /  50  90  10   0   0


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
     Baker-Ben Hill-Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Irwin-

AL...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL
     out 20 NM.

     Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday
     for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to
     60 NM.



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