Area Forecast Discussion
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476 FXUS62 KTAE 141455 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 955 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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This morning`s upper air sounding revealed a strong low-level inversion around 950mb. There`s very little chance of mixing through this cap today. Adiabatic heating alone would suggest the Tallahassee area could reach the middle to upper 50s this afternoon, though continued CAA advection will most likely limit some of this. The only other wrinkle is just how much diabatic heating we`ll receive under clear skies. Taking into account these three considerations, have strayed little from the previous forecast and will show an northwest to southeast gradient this afternoon. Expect highs around 50 in southeast Alabama, 55 from Panama City through Valdosta, and as high as 62 near Cross City.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Saturday]... VFR conditions under clear skies are expected throughout the TAF. Northerly winds could be a bit gusty this morning (15 to 20 kts), but should settle in to a steady 10 to 15 knots for much of the afternoon.
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&& .Marine...
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Occasional cautionary winds are expected through tonight. Winds look relatively light for most of this weekend with another increase expected Sunday night and Monday as the next front approaches.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Minor tweaks to the temperature and dewpoint this morning would indicate that the Red Flag conditions across portions of north Florida and southeast Alabama will be marginal today. However, if the observed conditions stray from the forecast, it will likely be in a direction that favors Red Flag conditions. Thus, will keep the current warning in place for today.
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&& .Prev Discussion [606 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... For tonight, a cold night is shaping up as a very cold and dry airmass continues to advect into the area. It continues to look like much of the northern and western portions of the forecast area will see a light freeze tonight, so the freeze watch was upgraded to a warning with a slight expansion eastward. For Saturday, as surface high pressure begins to shift to the east of the area, moisture will start to recover as the surface flow veers to easterly. Daytime highs will also average between 5 and 10 degrees warmer than today but will still end up below normal. For Sunday, we will just start to feel the affects of the next system as a strong trough digs west of the area, although most of the rain should hold off until the overnight hours into Monday. Temperatures and dewpoints will continue to rebound as the flow continues to veer the southeast. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... The strong upper level trough and associated cold front will push through the area during the Sunday night/Monday time period. Rainfall looks likely across the entire area. Thunderstorms are also possible, and both the 00z GFS and Euro are forecasting decent shear values across the area. Instability is more questionable, although the Euro actually has more instability than the GFS. If enough instability can develop ahead of the system, then a strong to severe storm would be possible, but confidence on that occurring is currently low, especially with such a cold and dry airmass to displace ahead of it first. We will continue to monitor for that possibility. Behind the system, another very cold and dry airmass will move in with a widespread freeze likely on Tuesday night and again on Wednesday night. In fact, some areas could flirt with local hard freeze conditions (below 26 for at least 2 hours) on Tuesday night. Highs will likely range from the upper 40s across the north to the mid 50s across the southeast big bend both days. These temperatures are a solid 20 degrees or more below average for this time of year. A gradual moderation is expected for the end of the week. .Hydrology... The western half of the forecast area could see around an inch of rain with the next system in the Sunday night/Monday time frame with locally higher amounts possible. This will be the first widespread rain in quite some time, so with the recent dry conditions and progressive nature of the system, flooding is not expected to be a problem.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 55 33 64 44 72 / 0 0 0 10 10 Panama City 55 37 61 49 70 / 0 0 0 10 20 Dothan 50 29 59 42 68 / 0 0 0 10 20 Albany 52 30 60 40 70 / 0 0 0 10 20 Valdosta 55 34 62 45 72 / 0 0 0 10 10 Cross City 61 35 67 49 74 / 0 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 57 38 62 49 70 / 0 0 0 10 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /Midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ Saturday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes- Inland Bay-Inland Walton-Jackson-Liberty-Washington. Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Leon. GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill- Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller- Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Tift-Turner- Worth. AL...Freeze Warning from Midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...HARRIGAN/DVD FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...DVD

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