Area Forecast Discussion
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201
FXUS62 KTAE 171845
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
245 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
As a result of the dry air that has spread in behind the cold front,
expect low temperatures to fall into the upper 60s away from the
coast tonight. To put this into perspective, it is around 3-5
degrees below average. The impacts from this front are clearly
realized more in moisture levels than air temperature.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
During this period, we will see a gradual return to more typical
summer rain chances and modest increases in humidity. However,
Friday will still be a dry day for most of us. The front currently
stalled across the northern Gulf of Mexico will edge northward
allowing some return flow across the central Gulf Coast. Isolate
PoPs are included across our far northwestern zones. We also could
see some isolated convection make it into our South Central GA zones
in an area where the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes collide. The
reduced convective coverage will allow temps to rise to above normal
levels, mainly mid 90s. By Saturday, return flow will be well
underway and PW will be back to climatological norms, if not above.
PoPs will increase to 30 southeast to 60s northwest. Max temps will
be near normal.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
The long term period will be fairly active for our CWA as long wave
troughing continues its grip on the Eastern CONUS with ridging in
the West. This typically features rain chances that are above
climatology for our CWA so went with blend of higher HPC guidance
with GFS/Euro which yields rain chances near 70 percent each day in
the period. With higher chances for rain, temperatures are expected
to be below climatology as well with most locations likely reaching
AOB 90.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF.

&&

.Marine...
A weak pressure pattern typical for the summer months will be in
place into next week. This will result in light winds and low seas
for the next several days.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Another relatively dry day is expected tomorrow, though RH values
will likely remain above critical levels. Thereafter, moisture
levels will increase to seasonal norms or above, as will rain
chances.

&&

.Hydrology...
Scattered storms will return to the forecast by the weekend, but
widespread heavy rainfall is not expected at this time. While some
storms may result in some localized rises on smaller area creeks and
streams, the main stem river will continue to remain below flood
stages.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  95  71  92  71 /   0  10  10  40  30
Panama City   76  90  75  88  74 /   0  10  10  40  30
Dothan        66  92  70  90  71 /   0  10  20  50  30
Albany        67  94  71  91  71 /   0  20  20  50  30
Valdosta      69  96  70  94  70 /   0  20  20  40  30
Cross City    71  93  70  92  71 /   0  10  10  30  20
Apalachicola  74  89  73  88  73 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL/DOBBS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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