Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 202054
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
354 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Surface high pressure is moving off the eastern seaboard today,
giving us light winds generally from the east. Light isentropic
ascent to our northwest has increased cloud cover today for our
northern counties. This ascent will continue through tonight,
keeping cloud cover in place over our northern counties. Highs
today will peak in the upper 40s to low-mid 50s with overnight
lows staying in the 30s, except along the Panhandle coast, where
lows will be in the low 40s.
.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
A weakening cold front will approach the area during the latter
half of the weekend, bringing an increasing chance of showers on
Sunday, mainly to the northwestern half of the area. Instability
may be just high enough to support a slight chance of a
thunderstorm across the northwest half, but with weak dynamics,
severe weather is not expected. A temporary but significant warm-
up is likely ahead of the front, with highs in the mid 60s to near
70 on Saturday and the mid 70s on Sunday.
.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The long term period will begin with a decaying frontal system
limping into our forecast area as the parent low pushes off the
northeast CONUS. As this upper low departs, our part of the county
will be left in nearly zonal flow aloft. The global guidance is in
good agreement through at least Wednesday with cloudy skies, near-
to-below normal temperatures, and chances for rain. The rain
chances will be forced by several small shortwaves as they move
east in the relatively quick 500mb flow.
The GFS and Euro begin to diverge Wednesday night as the GFS
forecasts a stronger shortwave to move along the 500mb flow and
push the stationary front to our south into Thursday morning.
What this would mean for our area is drier conditions, but a
return to below-normal temperatures. The Euro is slower and less
aggressive with this shortwave and would keep our area cloudy with
near-to-below normal temps. For this package, we followed our
normal long-term consensus blend which yielded near normal
temperatures through the period and low chances for rain after
[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Light winds from the east today and tonight will become
southeast at 10-14 knots with gusts of 15-20 knots late in the
As high pressure moves east of the area and a cold front
approaches, southeast winds are expected to increase to advisory
levels tonight into Saturday across most of the area. As the front
weakens, winds will diminish below advisory levels for Sunday.
Onshore flow will increase humidity levels substantially beginning
on Saturday with red flag conditions not expected in the near
A round of light rain is possible early next week, but totals will
be too low to cause significant rises on our area rivers.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 33 68 52 75 54 / 0 0 10 20 20
Panama City 42 67 58 70 54 / 0 10 20 30 20
Dothan 36 67 54 72 47 / 0 10 30 60 40
Albany 32 66 51 74 48 / 0 10 20 50 40
Valdosta 33 69 50 75 53 / 0 0 10 20 30
Cross City 32 70 49 77 54 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 42 65 57 70 56 / 0 0 10 20 20
FL...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for Central
Walton-Inland Walton-South Walton.
RIP CURRENT RISK until 9 PM CST this evening for South Walton.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Inland Wakulla-
AL...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday
for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin
FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
20 to 60 NM.