Area Forecast Discussion
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614
FXUS62 KTAE 091806
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
206 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Regional 17Z surface analysis shows a boundary over our area just
north of a line from Apalachicola to Valdosta. This boundary will
serve as the main forcing for convection this afternoon, although
scattered thunderstorms will be seen along the Florida coastline as
well with onshore flow. Highest chances for storms in the afternoon
and early evening will be in south-central Georgia and the eastern
Florida Big Bend with highs around 90. Overnight, scattered
thunderstorms will redevelop over the offshore waters. Lows will be
around 70. Patchy fog is likely to develop again overnight in
southeast Alabama and southwest and south-central Georgia.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The upper trough along the U.S. east coast will shift offshore and
allow the ridge over TX to build back to the east. 590-dm heights
will be over the area Wednesday and Thursday. This feature will tend
to suppress convective coverage over what we have seen recently with
PoPs generally in the 20-30% range both days. The reduction in storm
coverage will of course be accompanied by an corresponding increase
in afternoon temps. Look for highs to be 3-4 degrees above normal
both days.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
The upper ridge will be weakened by a tropical wave that will pass
south of the area across the Gulf of Mexico. Once the wave axis
passes west of the region, we will see an increase in deep layer
moisture. A front will also stall just northwest of the forecast
area. These features will increase rain chances somewhat over the
weekend, but particularly into early next week.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] MVFR cigs have been slow to lift at TLH and
ABY today, but both should finally clear to VFR over the next couple
of hours. Scattered thunderstorms will be near ECP, TLH, and VLD
this afternoon and may briefly lower cigs to MVFR. In the early
morning hours of Wednesday, DHN, ABY, and VLD will likely see
IFR-LIFR cigs and vsbys again, with MVFR-IFR cigs possible overnight
at TLH as well.


&&

.Marine...
A very weak pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place through
the week. This will keep winds and seas well below any headline
criteria.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity will remain above 40 percent this week, preventing
us from reaching red flag conditions.

&&

.Hydrology...
Recent rains have most area rivers rising now. However, overall
coverage of showers and storms will drop off over the next couple of
days, and with antecedent low flows, there are no imminent flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  10  30  10
Panama City   76  90  76  90  76 /  20  30  10  30  20
Dothan        71  91  72  94  72 /  20  20  10  30  10
Albany        71  92  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  20  10
Valdosta      70  92  71  93  72 /  30  20  20  30  10
Cross City    70  92  71  92  71 /  30  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  76  89  77  89  76 /  20  30  10  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...WOOL






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