Area Forecast Discussion
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928 FXUS62 KTAE 151545 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1045 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Current fcst is well on track, and after a clear and cold start, a mostly sunny and cool afternoon is in store for the Tri-State region. Just made a few tweaks to increase sky cover over the water, as there is still plenty of instability CU developing with the cold air advection. High temps will generally range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s, with a few outliers possible well to the north and well to the SE.
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&& .Prev Discussion [557 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... For tonight, temperatures will be warmer than last night as the airmass continues to modify and low level flow starts to veer as the ridge of high pressure slides eastward. Overnight lows are expected to range mainly from the upper 30s across the far northern areas to upper 40s across the southeast big bend. For Sunday, we will just start to feel the affects of the next system as a strong trough digs west of the area, although most of the rain should hold off until the overnight hours into Monday. There is a low chance of a few showers making it into the western portion of the forecast area by late in the afternoon. Temperatures and dewpoints will continue to rebound as the flow continues to veer the southeast. For Sunday night and Monday, this is when the main action will occur. Both the GFS and Euro still agree on a strong cold front moving through on Monday. Both models develop a wave of low pressure along the front over the central Gulf coast and track it northeastward through the southeast states. There are still some timing differences with the 00z Euro around 6 hours slower than the GFS. Wind fields will strengthen considerably ahead of the front with 0-1 km shear around 30 knots and 0-6 km shear around 50 knots expected. In addition, both models forecast mid 60s dewpoints to be pulled northward ahead of the front. As a result, it looks like there will be enough SBCAPE to support a risk of isolated strong to severe storms across the area. The best estimate on timing for the greatest severe weather threat at this time is from a few hours before daybreak on Monday through the late morning hours. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]... Behind the strong cold front on Monday, another very cold and dry airmass will move in with a widespread freeze likely on Tuesday night and again on Wednesday night. In fact, some areas could reach local hard freeze conditions (below 26 for at least 2 hours) on Tuesday night and come close again on Wednesday night. Highs will likely range from the mid to upper 40s across the north to the mid 50s across the southeast big bend both days. These temperatures are a solid 20 degree or more below average for this time of year. A gradual moderation is expected for the end of the week. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Sunday] As high pressure slides eastward, winds will shift to the east, bringing moisture in from the Atlantic coast. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 03Z Sunday, but overnight MVFR cigs are expected to move in from east to west across VLD, ABY, and TLH. Light winds overnight will become east- northeast at 5 to 10 after sunrise Saturday, becoming light again after sunset. .Marine... Winds and seas will diminish through today before increasing again Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. The onshore winds Sunday and Sunday night will become offshore Monday afternoon with advisory conditions developing behind the front. The strong offshore winds will continue through Tuesday night before diminishing on Wednesday. .Fire Weather... Increasing moisture ahead of our next cold front will keep red flag criteria away until mid-next week. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a much drier, colder air mass will be in place and red flag conditions may be possible. .Hydrology... Dry conditions will persist through most of the day on Sunday before rain moves into the area Sunday night and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be possible with this frontal passage. This may cause some minor rises on area rivers and streams. However, with base flows at low levels, no flooding is expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 63 44 72 58 70 / 0 10 10 30 80 Panama City 61 48 69 62 69 / 0 10 10 50 80 Dothan 58 39 68 56 63 / 0 10 20 70 80 Albany 59 39 68 55 66 / 0 10 10 50 80 Valdosta 61 44 71 56 71 / 0 10 10 30 80 Cross City 66 49 75 58 75 / 0 10 10 10 70 Apalachicola 62 49 69 63 73 / 0 10 10 40 80 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...DVD/MCDERMOTT

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