Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 222325
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
625 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 1 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a slow-moving cold
front from Atlanta, through Birmingham, to Lake Charles, with a weak
1019 mb frontal wave near Greenville, AL. Bands of SW-NE oriented
showers were occurring near and south of this front, and it may be
unstable enough for even a few thunderstorms this afternoon or
evening as the front continues moving into southeast AL. The cold
front will reach the Tallahassee area by around daybreak, as it
transitions into an anafront (with most of the rain behind the cold
front). The bulk of the cold air will remain north of our region
tonight, so lows will be quite warm for this time of the year
(generally in the 50s).

The overnight PoP will range from 50% at Dothan and Albany, to 10%
at Cross City. The main focus for rain appears to be associated with
the interaction of the aforementioned weak frontal wave and an
approaching upper level PV anomaly. This forcing appears to shift
north of our region toward dawn. Areas of dense fog are likely
overnight, mainly south of the approaching cold front.


.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Although it will still be relatively mild across the CWA on
Monday with high temps ranging from the mid 50s far to the NW to the
middle 70s over the SE FL Big Bend, plenty of moisture and rainfall
will be coining down from the north as well with PoPs ranging from
the 60s over of AL and GA to the 20s and 30s over eastern FL. As the
cold front sinks further to the south, temps and PoPs should become
more uniform across the region with both temps and PoP widespread in
the 40s and 50s

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

In this rather prolonged stretch of unsettled weather across the
tri-state area, the jackpot period for heavy and widespread rain
appears to be Wednesday night an Thursday, where many areas could
receive up to 2 inches of rain alone on those days.

&&

.Aviation...

[through 18Z Monday] Mainly VFR cigs are expected this afternoon,
except for occasional MVFR cigs at KECP & KDHN. Scattered SHRA and
isolated TSRA are expected in southeast AL and southwest GA this
afternoon and evening. Cigs and/or Vis are likely to fall to IFR
levels overnight, with the highest chance of dense fog at KTLH.
Occasional rain is likely at KDHN & KABY. The rain and fog will
taper off from NW to SE Monday morning behind the cold front, by low
cigs will likely persist until afternoon. Winds will shift from SW
to NW behind the front.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas will be generally light to moderate across the
coastal waters for the next several days with seas typically on the
higher side than winds due to the rather long southerly fetch. This
will make boating in small craft a bit more hazardous than usual
given the reported seas, while surfers will enjoy the larger waves
and lighter winds.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. Expect rain to be around through mid week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Several rounds of rainfall are possible this week with the best
chance for an areawide moderate to possibly heavy rainfall event
expected on Wednesday. Total rainfall is generally expected to be in
the 2-3 inch range with isolated higher totals possible. This will
cause rises on area rivers and may bring a few of our sites back up
to action stage. At this time, flooding is not expected, although if
widespread rainfall amounts were to increase above 3 inches, then
the Kinchafoonee Creek as well as the Ochlockonee and Aucilla Rivers
could come close to minor flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   56  69  48  54  46 /  20  30  50  40  50
Panama City   58  64  47  53  47 /  20  40  40  40  50
Dothan        50  58  40  50  41 /  50  50  50  40  40
Albany        53  60  41  49  41 /  50  60  50  40  30
Valdosta      56  68  45  50  45 /  20  40  50  40  40
Cross City    56  74  51  59  49 /  10  20  40  40  50
Apalachicola  59  68  51  56  50 /  10  30  40  40  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...DVD/MOORE





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