Area Forecast Discussion
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102 FXUS62 KTAE 210818 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 418 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
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ALTHOUGH POPS WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY PRECIPITATION FROM THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO OUR WEST WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT, SOME OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE FORCED OR AIDED BY A VERY EARLY SEASON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO MIDDLE GEORGIA. MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER FORCING. IN FACT, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE INCREASING BY AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 50KT...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE PRIMARY THREAT AT THIS TIME IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN`T BE RULED OUT BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ISN`T ESPECIALLY COLD. .LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF TRANQUIL DAYS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. IN FACT, LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE QUITE COOL DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW PLACES. A WARMING TREND BEGINS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TO THE GFS SOLUTION OF A STRONGER AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT`S STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH A MORE ENERGETIC SOLUTION WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST SOME SORT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, SO DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE BY SATURDAY. IN FACT, THERE`S SOME INDICATIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S BY SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY] EXTREMELY COMPLEX TAF PACKAGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AS PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND YESTERDAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL HAS LEFT ALL OF THE THE TERMINALS IN A NEARLY CONSTANT STATE OF FLUX FROM IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY BACK TO VFR LEVELS FROM NEARLY HOUR TO HOUR. THIS HAS MADE KEEPING UP WITH THE TAFS A CONSTANT CHALLENGE WHICH MAY NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN, AND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT, ONLY HAVE VCTS GROUPS IN DHN AND VLD FOR 4 HOUR PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGHER POPS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS N PARTS OF THE CWA, WILL LIKELY NEED TEMPOS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS AT DHN AND ABY.
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&& .MARINE...
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A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN LOW WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA DESPITE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. BY MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGH.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ON SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. MODEST RISES IN AREA RIVERS TO ACTION STAGE ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 85 64 81 62 78 / 30 40 70 70 60 PANAMA CITY 78 64 75 63 75 / 30 40 70 60 20 DOTHAN 83 62 75 59 70 / 30 60 90 90 40 ALBANY 80 61 73 58 67 / 20 70 90 100 60 VALDOSTA 85 64 80 61 75 / 30 40 80 80 70 CROSS CITY 86 62 82 62 78 / 30 20 40 50 60 APALACHICOLA 78 65 76 64 75 / 20 30 60 60 40
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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