Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 251555

1155 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Today will feature the same general pattern as yesterday. The
morning analysis shows two upper level ridge centers, one across
the southern plains and the other off the east coast of Florida.
There is a break in between the two centers where very weak upper
level troughing exists. As we head through the day, the 1000-700
mb mean wind will once again be out of the southwest, yielding a
borderline type 4 or 5 sea breeze regime. This favors isolated to
scattered convection starting near the coast this morning and
spreading inland across the remainder of the area through the
afternoon hours. The ensemble of convection allowing models also
shows this general evolution, so the PoP forecast will once again
favor a blend of the CAMs and sea breeze climatology for today
with seasonable high temperatures.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement that the pattern
across the Eastern CONUS will amplify considerably at the start of
the period as a large trough moves through the Ohio Valley to the
Mid Atlantic States. For several runs now, the models have all
indicated the surface cold front making it through most if not all
of our forecast area by Tuesday. Thus, expect a couple of days of
below normal temps with little or no rain chances. The bulk of the
colder air should remain confined in the Tennessee Valley and
areas to the north though Wednesday and Thursday morning lows will
drop into the 60s across Srn Alabama/Georgia.

By Thursday, the pattern stalls or even retrogrades slightly with
the 500 mb trough axis aligned from the Southern Appalachians
through our forecast area. As deep layer moisture begins to
increase on Thursday, rain chances will increase. Afternoon
temperatures will still remain below normal through this portion
of the long term period due to expected cloud cover, though
overnight lows will return to seasonal norms.


.Prev Discussion [558 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
With an upper ridge centered over Texas and the mean East Coast
trough pulling north of the forecast area, there will be very
little in the way of synoptic scale forcing for the region through
the weekend. This will leave the seabreeze as the primary
mechanism for triggering convection for Saturday and Sunday.
Precipitable water values and mid-level temperatures should be
near seasonal normals, so PoP are weighted towards seabreeze
climo for west to southwest flow.

Temperatures will be warm as well, especially over the interior
where the onset of scattered thunderstorms will hold off until
later in the afternoon. Expect to see lower 90s south of I-10 and
mid 90s to the north.

[Through 12z Saturday] Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through
the day. The typical summertime scattered diurnal convection will
develop across the area from southwest to northeast with VCTS
shown in the forecast for now. It would not be surprising to see
a few tempos for TSRA later today, but confidence in the coverage
and timing is not quite high enough to include tempos at this

Southwesterly to westerly flow is expected to remain in place
across the coastal waters into early next week as the subtropical
ridge axis stays south of the waters. By late Monday into Tuesday,
winds may increase to near exercise caution levels as a cold front
approaches from the north.

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days,
although dispersion values will be high this afternoon across a
large portion of the inland Florida big bend.

Afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms are expected, however heavy rain
will be localized and should not have any impact on area rivers.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   92  73  93  74  94 /  50  30  50  30  40
Panama City   88  76  89  77  90 /  30  20  30  30  30
Dothan        91  73  94  75  94 /  50  30  40  30  40
Albany        93  74  95  75  95 /  40  30  30  20  30
Valdosta      96  72  93  73  93 /  40  40  40  30  40
Cross City    91  72  92  72  93 /  50  20  40  30  30
Apalachicola  89  76  88  76  89 /  30  20  30  20  30


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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