Area Forecast Discussion
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316
FXUS62 KTAE 140917
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The pattern will remain dominated by surface and upper level ridging
through today. This will allow for another day of sunny skies and
near seasonal afternoon high temperatures. The warmest guidance for
high temperatures over the last couple of days has been verifying
the best, so the official forecast went with this today given the
same general pattern in place.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
High pressure will be centered just north of the forecast area
tonight. This will allow for another chilly night with lows Monday
morning dropping into the low to mid 30s. By Monday, the pattern
will be in transition as high pressure moves off the East Coast
and a storm system moves across the Plains. Little in the way of
return moisture or even deep layer forcing with this storm system
will keep rain chances very low Monday night into Tuesday. High
temperatures Monday and Tuesday will finally return to above
normal values, and possibly exceed 70 degrees in a few areas.

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
In the wake of a mainly dry cold front on Tuesday afternoon,
cooler and drier air will return to the region by the middle of
the week. Model guidance continues to remain in good agreement
that Wed-Thurs should be under the control of high pressure with
slightly below normal temperatures each day. By Friday, the models
begin to diverge with a more energetic 14/00z Euro indicating a
higher amplitude trough moving across the Central and Southern
Plains leading to strong surface cyclogenesis across the Western
Gulf. The 14/00z GFS has a similar pattern - though weaker
solution. While it`s too early to speculate about strong storms,
both models seem to suggest that rain chances will be increasing
late Friday and into Saturday. Thereafter, considerable
uncertainty abounds. Maintained a forecast a little closer to
climatology for the end of the period, though cooler conditions
could be in the offering if the Euro were to verify.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the period with light winds.

&&

.Marine...
Northwest winds will weaken later today as high pressure moves
near the marine area. On Monday, winds will shift to the south
ahead of an approaching cold front. On Tuesday, a cold front will
pass through the northeast Gulf and will increase winds to
moderate levels. High pressure will move in behind this front,
resulting in light winds and low seas for the remainder of the
work week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Fair weather will continue through Monday, with a gradual warming
and moistening trend, especially during the afternoons. With a high
pressure system remaining in place, surface and transport winds, as
well as daytime mixing heights, will remain low. This combination
will keep daytime dispersion values at unusually low levels.

&&

.Hydrology...
With generally dry weather expected through the next several days,
rivers will remain well below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  34  70  47  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   64  43  69  56  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        65  38  69  52  70 /   0   0   0  20  10
Albany        68  34  68  46  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      68  35  68  43  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    69  34  71  42  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  70  41  66  52  70 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




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