Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 190901

401 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A massive long wave trough continues to dominate all but the west
coast of North America this morning. The massive dip in the jet
stream has brought extreme temperatures for autumn for much of the
country. The cold front that ushered in the present Arctic air
mass is now pushing across the Bahamas, Cuba and Belize! Surface
high pressure is centered just north of the north central Gulf
Coast. There is still just enough mixing to maintain a light north
wind across the forecast area. That has tempered the temp
decline somewhat in a few spots, but that was anticipated. Several
locations have gone calm and we expect most inland areas to
follow. We could therefore see a quicker drop in temps, if not a
sudden one, at some observing station as we approach dawn,
although we are running out of time. Hard freeze conditions have
already occurred across our northern zones. AAF has tied their
daily record low and TLH is one degree off theirs. With full
sunshine, temps should rebound nicely during the day and will not
be quite as cold as on Tuesday. Northern areas will see temps some
8-10 degrees milder with southern areas closer to 3-5 degrees.
Most locations will top out in the mid 50s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
One more very cold night is expected tonight before a moderating
trend begins. With the surface high position expected to be a tad
farther south compared to last night, the coldest temperatures
tonight may actually be across the Florida big bend and adjacent
extreme south-central Georgia where another hard freeze is
possible. Elsewhere, a light freeze is expected away from the
coast. Dry weather will continue through the short term.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
By late in the weekend, models are in overall agreement on
swinging a potent upper level shortwave and associated cold front
through the area. Much of the guidance forecasts this trough to
take on a negative tilt just west of the area with a very strong
low-level jet core on the order of 70 knots just northwest of the
area, and 50-60 knots in our forecast area. Shear is forecast to
be quite strong with this system, and both the 00z Euro and GFS
have mid 60s dewpoints returning inland from the coast by 12z
Sunday. With this setup, a strong to severe squall line sweeping
across the area is a possibility from late Saturday night through
Sunday. The main limiting factor will be the uncertainty with the
amount of moisture return and associated instability.

After Sunday, although the shortwave will lift up into the Great
Lakes, longwave troughing will continue west of the area. Another
weaker system could bring us a chance of showers on Monday or


[Through 12Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with calm to light winds.


Winds and seas will continue to diminish today with conditions
dropping below advisory levels across the offshore water by
mid-morning. Relatively light northeast winds are expected on
Thursday. Winds will gradually veer from east to south and
increase this weekend as a low pressure system develops west of
the area. Advisory conditions are possible as early as Saturday
and become likely by Saturday night into Sunday. In fact, a strong
to severe squall line may sweep across the coastal waters Saturday
night into Sunday.


.Fire Weather...
The red flag warnings will remain in place for today. Southeast AL
will see low RH durations. In FL, it will be durations and high
ERC that meet red flag criteria. The ERC numbers for Bay and
Calhoun Counties in FL were suspiciously low for yesterday, so we
are not quite sure what is going on there. Looking ahead to
tomorrow, RH will still be quite low in the FL Big Bend and Leon
and Wakulla were put under a fire weather watch. Moisture levels
will continue to increase later in the week with a wetting rain
expected over the weekend.


The next chance of widespread rain is expected for late Saturday
night through Sunday. While an inch or two of rain is possible,
this will not be enough to cause any flooding concerns.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   56  24  65  33  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   54  37  63  44  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        54  30  63  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        54  27  63  35  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      54  25  63  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    57  24  65  32  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  55  35  63  43  66 /   0   0   0   0   0


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

     Red Flag Warning from Noon EST /11 AM CST/ today to 6 PM EST /5
     PM CST/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland
     Bay-Inland Wakulla-Leon-Washington.

     Hard Freeze Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for
     Gadsden-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland

     Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for Coastal Wakulla-Inland

GA...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for Baker-Ben

     Hard Freeze Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for

AL...Hard Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale-

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this
     afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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