Area Forecast Discussion
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370
FXUS62 KTAE 101809
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
209 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure and zonal flow aloft with keep winds light and skies
clear tonight. While the airmass is gradually modifying as the
center of the surface high moves east, the continuation of ideal
radiational cooling conditions will still allow temperatures to fall
into the upper 40s to around 50 overnight.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

High pressure will remain centered near or just east of the region
throughout the short term period. This will result in a period of
dry and warm conditions. After a cool start on Friday morning,
temperatures will return to normal or slightly above normal values
through the period. The model guidance does show a sea breeze
developing along the coast each afternoon, which will likely
result in temperatures in the coastal zone being a few degrees
cooler in the afternoon given how cool the shelf waters remain.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The primary focus in the long term period will be on an
approaching storm system in the Monday through Tuesday Evening
timeframe. While the models are reasonably synced on the timing of
this system bringing the bulk of the rain through on Monday
afternoon and overnight, there are subtle differences with respect
to the intensity of the system. Most of the models prefer a weaker
solution with a cold front coming through early Tuesday morning
with little prospect for severe weather or widespread heavy rain.
The Euro tries to develop a more potent wave in the southern
stream, resulting in a stronger system. For now, have kept the
system more progressive and weaker. In any event, should be a good
rain producer with 1 to 1.5 inches possible. Thereafter, drier and
cooler conditions return for the remainder of the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] Other than a possible brief period of MVFR
vsby at KVLD early Thursday morning, VFR conditions and light
winds will prevail at all terminals through the forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
High pressure will remain in place across the marine area
throughout much of the weekend. By Sunday, as high pressure moves
into the Western Atlantic, the tightening gradient between this
high and an approaching storm system will result in increasing
winds and seas by the first of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Light onshore flow through the remainder of the week will allow for
low-level moisture levels to slowly rise. This should keep minimum
humidity values above critical levels, with no fire weather concerns
expected.

&&

.Hydrology...
Nearly all of the rivers across the northern portion of our area
have crested and are now beginning to fall. The crestwave down the
Choctawhatchee/Pea River system is now at Geneva and will then be
progressing downstream toward Caryville and Bruce. The river
should stay in the minor flood category at Caryville, but further
downstream at Bruce, moderate flooding is anticipated with the
river having a chance to reach major flood levels.

Releases from Woodruff have the Apalachicola River at flood stage
with Blountstown likely to crest as high as 23 feet this weekend
with releases starting to stabilize around 104kcfs. If releases
stay at this level, it is unlikely Blountstown would reach
moderate flood stage.

In the Flint, Newton has crested and the Ichawaynochaway crest
wave is nearing Riverview Plantation. The combination of the two
flows will have Bainbridge very close to flood stage by tomorrow
night.

For the Ochlockonee, flows have continued to be a little higher
than previously anticipated today, and thus it is now possible
that minor flood levels may be reached from Thomasville through
Havana, though any rises above flood stage shouldn`t be more than
a few tenths of a foot.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   49  79  54  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   57  76  60  78  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        50  79  57  81  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        49  80  56  82  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      50  80  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    50  81  52  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  56  76  59  77  63 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




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