Area Forecast Discussion
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050 FXUS62 KTAE 231347 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 947 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Last fog has burned off and lingering low stratus beginning to do the same. Otherwise, the larger scale regional pattern is highlighted looking west by a quasi-stnry mid-upper low centered near New Orleans this morning. Looking east, high off of Cntrl FL with assocd N-S ridge moving west into FL. Locally, this has resulted in rising heights, negative vorticity advection and dry mid-level air spreading Nwd over CWA which should aid in suppressing convective activity. At surface, weakening boundary draped across mid-south and ridge across Cntrl FL/Gulf waters. All this will keep deep layer onshore flow and PWATs around 1.4-1.5 inches over local region as reflected in 12z RAOBs and model soundings. Gulf sea breeze should have just enough lift for 20% chance of aftn convection and tweaked POP grids accordingly. Based on current trends, tweaked down temps 1-2 degrees mainly Ern counties. High temperatures should be in the low 90s west to mid 90s east with plenty of sunshine.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Thursday]...VFR conditions will prevail with some isolated thunderstorms developing in the afternoon, but coverage was too low to mention in the TAFs...except at TLH where VCTS was included after 19Z. After 08Z Thurs, MVFR VSBYS are likely especially at ABY/VLD.
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&& .Prev Discussion [151 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... The GFS and ECMWF finally dissipate the cutoff low to our west tonight, but then carve out a long wave trough over much of the eastern CONUS over the later part of the work week. The 00 UTC GFS solution predicts somewhat greater deep layer moisture than the 12 UTC ECMWF, and their corresponding MOS PoPs reflect this difference. Our forecast is blend of the two solutions, with a little more weight toward the GFS (given that this is climatologically our wettest time of year). The resulting PoP forecast is in the 30-40% range, which is still slightly below climo values. With below-climo PoPs/clouds comes warm high temperatures, with highs in the mid 90s (upper 80s beaches). As one might expect this time of year, there doesn`t appear to be a significant threat for organized severe storms due primarily to weak winds aloft. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... The region will be dominated by high pressure at the sfc and an upper level ridge through Sunday. As a result, expect only a slight chance for afternoon/evening rain and thunderstorms. Late Monday an upper level trough moves in and increases afternoon/evening precip chances for the remainder of the forecast period. A stationary boundary is expected to linger over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. In addition to the increased rain chance expect abundant cloud cover. Expect lows in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 90s. .Marine... Winds will generally be from the southwest around 10 KT through this weekend, except for an increase to 10 to 15 KT near the coast during the late afternoon and evening hours from strong daytime heating. Significant wave heights will be mainly 2 ft or less. .Fire Weather... Red flag conditions are not expected this week despite some slightly drier weather (in terms of rain chances). .Hydrology... Given the expectation of only isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Friday, it`s unlikely that flash flooding or river flooding will occur.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 94 73 93 74 93 / 30 0 30 20 30 Panama City 90 76 89 77 89 / 30 0 30 20 30 Dothan 93 72 92 73 93 / 20 0 40 20 30 Albany 95 73 93 74 93 / 20 10 40 20 30 Valdosta 97 72 95 73 93 / 20 0 30 20 40 Cross City 94 73 92 72 92 / 30 0 30 20 30 Apalachicola 89 77 89 77 88 / 30 0 30 20 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOCK SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT AVIATION...BLOCK MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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