Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 300216
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
916 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2013
.NEAR TERM [Rest of Tonight]...
00z surface analysis shows a localize area of high pressure in
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia, along with a tight
temperature and dewpoint gradient across our forecast area.
Increased low level cloud cover in the southeastern portion of
our area tonight, along with higher current temps, will mean lows
around 40-45 in this area. To the northwest, however, where
skies will stay clear and temps are already lower, lows will range
from the mid-upper 30s, with portions of southeast Alabama
possibly reaching freezing (32) briefly.
.SHORT TERM [Saturday through Monday]...
The large scale pattern begins with a series of shortwaves riding
east in Nrn stream while broad ridging develops over SE region in the
wake of departing weak shortwave. At surface, high off New England
with ridge building down Ern seaboard and coastal trough from off
NE FL to off SC. This combination will tighten local gradients.
Sunrise temps will be warmer than previous mornings, and a freeze
even for in the northwest corner of Coffee and Dale counties is
During the rest of the period, broad ridging will weaken as a series
of shortwave move Ewd ahead of Cntrl Plains trough. This upper trough
will move Ewd and deepen into longwave trough on Mon over SE
region bringing increasing mid and high clouds but will be
moisture starved especially at low levels before axis exits Ewd by
sundown then offshore Mon night. At surface, high moves further
into Atlc and ridge/gradients weaken somewhat thru Sun in
response to approaching upper trough. NE flow will suppress
convection but should be sufficient for low clouds and possibly
isolated light shwrs to move Swwd to reach especially our Ern
counties over weekend. NE flow, weakening pressure gradient and
higher PWATS should also be just enough to generate some fog most
sites late Sat night into early Sun but especially the next night
ahead of front.
Nil POPS thru Sun night then wdly sct POPs on Mon. Warming trend to
AOA climo thru period. Expect highs Sat from 60 North to 70 SE Big
Bend rising on Sun and Mon to mid 60s North to 70-73 SE Big Bend.
Lows Sat night from low 40s North to around 50 SE Big Bend and on
Sun night from mid 40s North to low 50s.
.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The longwave trough over SE region on Mon exits ewd on Mon night
with upstream ridge and rising heights overspreading region with
axis overhead Wed aftn. It lingers into Thurs before exiting Ewd in
response to full latitude trough developing over Plains with
increasing SWLY steering flow shifting Ewd. This trough then lifts
Newd thru Fri taking much of dynamics with it. Atlc surface low
moves Newd into open waters Mon night into early Tues while another
low moves from Plains to across Great Lakes thru period dragging a
trailing cold front ESE reaching Cntrl AL by end of period with Atlc
high moving increasing Ewd. All this places local area increasingly
in warm sector but moisture will remain limited.
Generally isold to wdly sct light pops Sat night Thurs then wdly
sct-lo sct Thurs night and wdly sct-sct pops Fri and Fri night.
Temps will rise thru the period to above climo. Expect Inland lows
generally in mid 40s Mon night, low 40s Tues night, mid to upper 40s
Wed night rising to low to mid 50s Thurs night and mid 50s Fri
night. Inland highs Tues mid to upper 60s, 67 to 74 Wed and 70 to 75
Thurs and mid 70s on Fri.
[Through 00Z Sunday] Clouds will increase over the next 24 hours as
moisture moves in from the Atlantic. Expect to see MVFR CIGS reach
KVLD late tonight, and terminals farther east by Saturday afternoon.
Northeasterly winds should remain relatively light.
Moderate to marginally strong NE winds will persist through Saturday
night, with periods of "Exercise Caution" conditions possible over
the outer coastal waters. After a lengthy period of rough boating
conditions, winds and seas will finally fall to low levels during
the day on Sunday, and last at least into early next week as the
pressure gradient weakens considerably.
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds
for the next several days. Thus, hazardous fire weather conditions
are not anticipated.
Area rivers elevated from rainfall earlier in the week are now
receding. Rainfall totals through Wednesday are expected to be less
than a quarter inch and should not have any impact on river stages.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 39 65 45 68 49 / 0 0 0 10 20
Panama City 40 64 50 67 54 / 0 0 0 10 20
Dothan 33 60 42 65 47 / 0 0 0 10 20
Albany 35 60 42 64 46 / 0 0 10 10 20
Valdosta 39 64 45 66 50 / 0 10 10 10 20
Cross City 45 71 50 73 52 / 0 10 10 10 20
Apalachicola 41 64 51 67 54 / 0 0 0 10 20
Rest of Discussion...Block