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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
888
FXUS62 KTAE 131945
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
345 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2013


.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
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Isolated to scattered convection is expected along and near the
sea breeze boundary across the eastern panhandle, big bend, and
adjacent south central Georgia area for the remainder of the
afternoon and into the early evening hours. An unstable airmass
remains in place with MLCAPE values between 3000 and 4000 j/kg and
rather high delta thetae values. Thus, the potential exists for
pulse severe storms with gusty winds along the sea breeze boundary
through the early evening hours, although the coverage of storms
is expected to be low and most places will remain dry.

Heading into the first half of the overnight hours, an upper
level shortwave is expected to dive southeastward and approach the
area. This will likely induce MCS development to our north during
the late afternoon and evening with a line of storms approaching
our northern zones. The main question is how much intensity will
remain with the storms as they move into our forecast area. The
current consensus on timing from the hi-res guidance does not have
any potential MCS moving into the northern zones until well after
sunset, which is a limiting factor for storm intensity. Indeed,
the latest hi-res guidance still has this line of storms weakening
rapidly as it moves into our area, although only a small error in
the weakening trend could bring strong to severe storms across our
forecast area border, so this still bears close watching as we
head into the evening hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
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Decaying MCS along with a frontal boundary will be situated across
the southern half of the forecast area by Friday morning. This
will likely be a focus for convection. However, with the upper
support pulling away quickly and dry air filling in behind the
boundary, activity should be scattered at best. With the upper
ridge breaking down, should also see some slight relief from the
heat, with high temperatures holding in the lower 90s vs. the
upper 90s.

With a dryer airmass continuing to push in for Saturday, expect
only isolated convection confined primarily south of I-10.
Temperatures are expected to be in the lower 90s again on
Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday through Thursday]...
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The upper pattern is forecast to remain relatively flat and weak
through the first half of next week. With a relatively dry airmass
in place, this will keep rain chances on the low end of scattered,
through Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday, a trough is forecast
to amplify along the eastern seaboard, which may improve rain
chances. Temperatures should remain near seasonal normals.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
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[Through 18z Friday] Isolated to scattered convection is expected
for the remainder of this afternoon with the greatest chances at
KTLH and KVLD. A few storms could be on the strong side with gusty
winds. Late in the evening, a line of storms could approach from
the north and affect KABY and KDHN, but an overall weakening trend
is expected as it moves southward, and confidence is not high
enough to include any tempos for this late evening activity at
this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Winds near exercise caution levels are possible tonight ahead of
an approaching cold front. The front will stall very near the
coast on Friday, with winds weakening through the weekend.
Generally light winds and low seas are then expected into early
next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for the next
several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee   74  93  72  93  70 / 20  30  20  20  10
Panama City   78  89  77  88  75 / 10  30  20  20  10
Dothan        74  94  70  94  72 / 30  20   0  10  10
Albany        74  93  69  93  69 / 30  10   0  10  10
Valdosta      74  93  69  92  67 / 20  30  10  10  10
Cross City    74  89  71  92  69 / 10  30  20  20  10
Apalachicola  76  87  76  86  75 / 10  30  20  20  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DVD/Camp
FIRE WEATHER...DVD/Camp
HYDROLOGY...Camp