Area Forecast Discussion
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428
FXUS62 KTAE 270356
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1056 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Finally a quiet night over the region with lower level clouds
giving way to a band of mainly cirrus which is gradually pushing
SE across the CWA. Temps will be fairly chilly with low temps
ranging from the mid 30s to the lower 40s from NW to SE. The only
major change to the fcst was to cancel the SCA to the west and go
with a SCEC across the board over the Coastal Waters tonight as
the latest winds and seas should range from 15 to 20 knots out of
the north. However, SCA conditions are likely to make a return on
Friday night.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] Sky conditions will gradually improve from
MVFR to VFR from NW to SE tonight and during the day on Friday at
the terminals, with only Sct-Bkn Cirrus remaining by days end.

&&

.Prev Discussion [229 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The dominant weather feature over the next few days will be the
strong and sprawling area of high pressure spreading from the
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Expect to see a modest warmup on
Friday with highs ranging from the mid 50s in the northwest to
the mid 60s in the southeast. Saturday will be trickier as the
surface high reaches the Mid-Atlantic states and wedges down the
lee of the Appalachians. While the southern portions of the area
will likely reach the 60s Saturday afternoon, portions of
southwest and south central Georgia will struggle into the 50s
with cloudy skies and cool northeasterly flow.

Farther south, rain chances will increase over the southeastern
Big Bend as yesterdays front begins to creep back to the north as
a warm front.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
The wedge of high pressure should break down by Sunday afternoon,
allowing for temperatures to return to the 60s area wide. However
scattered showers will be possible as developing return flow rides
up and over the remaining wedge and a weak front approaches from
the west.

Scattered showers will be possible on Monday into Monday night as
well, as the front approaches the forecast area and stalls. A
building ridge over the gulf will keep temperatures on a warming
trend through the first half of the week, with afternoon
temperatures well into the 70s Monday and Tuesday. Another front
is forecast to approach the region by the middle of the week, with
another chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.


.Marine...
Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions near or above Small Craft
Advisory levels beginning tonight through early Sunday. Conditions
will improve for Sunday into early next week as the area of high
pressure weakens.


.Fire Weather...
No Fire Weather concerns are expected for the next several days
despite a brief intrusion of significantly drier air on Friday.


.Hydrology...
Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain yesterday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   37  61  43  63  50 /  10   0  10  10  30
Panama City   39  59  44  61  50 /   0   0  10  20  20
Dothan        34  56  39  54  41 /  10   0  10  10  20
Albany        35  59  39  51  43 /  10   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      39  61  43  58  48 /  10   0  10  10  30
Cross City    41  64  44  64  52 /  10   0  10  40  30
Apalachicola  42  59  47  62  52 /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






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