Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 010647
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
147 AM EST Sat Mar 1 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
An upper level vort lobe is passing from AL into GA this morning.
This feature is responsible for a scattered mid level cloud deck.
While radar appears to be showing light rain, this is all virga as
low levels remain too dry for any hydrometeors to reach the ground.
As the short wave moves east later this morning, skies will clear.
Heights will begin to rise today allowing the moderating trend in
temps to continue. Afternoon highs will be close to seasonal norms
with upper 60s north to lower 70s south.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
For tonight, an area of surface high pressure will extend from the
Carolinas southwest into Georgia. This should place the eastern
half of our forecast area in calm winds, with the flow just above
the surface light out of the east. Combined with clear skies, this
could be a recipe for some fog, so we included areas of fog across
much of the eastern half of our area, with patchy fog further west.
On Sunday, the boundary layer flow begins to increase out of the
south and the weak WAA pattern will increase 850mb temperatures to
around +11 to +12C. On well-mixed days, this typically corresponds
to highs in the upper 70s. That is very close (slightly warmer) to
what models are showing. Given sunny skies and increasing WAA, we
nudged the highs up by a degree over model consensus.
For Sunday Night and Monday, a low amplitude wave will eject ENE
from the southern Plains and support weak surface cyclogenesis
over the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. As a result,
a cold front is expected to eventually push through our forecast
area on Monday. Forcing along the front is expected to grow weaker
with time as the upper level wave quickly ejects off the Atlantic
coast on Monday. Therefore, the best chances of rain should be in
the northwest corner of our area on Monday morning (~60%) tapering
down to only a slight chance (~20%) in the eastern Florida Big
Bend. There will be some marginal instability, so isolated
thunderstorm wording was included.
.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The extended range forecast will be much more active than the
weekend. Expect a shortwave trough to roll through the Southeast
on Monday, dragging a cold front through the local area. For now,
it appears as though the front will weaken as it moves through the
region, bringing mostly showers with an occasional rumble of
thunder. The more potent system will come near the end of the week
when a strong, positively tilted trough moves into the western
Gulf, spawning strong Gulf cyclogenesis. The surface low is
forecast to move into the northeast Gulf, but whether we get "warm
sectored" which would favor severe thunderstorms is a bit
uncertain at this time. Expect temperatures to generally remain
seasonable through the extended range, in the upper 60s for highs,
and mid 40s for lows.
[Through 06Z Sunday] The forecast for this period will be VFR for
DHN, ECP and TLH with scattered mid level clouds exiting east later
this morning as a vort lobe departs. Satellite indicates some low
clouds with bases below 1 kft moving in from the east and these are
expected to reach VLD along with IFR visibilities. Current forecast
reflects ABY on the western fringe of the low cloud deck and we are
only showing MVFR visibility there at this time. VFR will return to
the GA terminals by 13z. Winds will be light through the period.
Weak winds will support relatively calm conditions with seas 2
feet or less through Monday morning. After that, a cold front will
move through, causing an increase in northerly winds - especially
west of Apalachicola. As of right now, SCEC conditions look more
likely than advisory conditions. Winds and seas will subside on
Tuesday with easterly flow setting up and increasing on Wednesday
as a Gulf low begins to develop.
Although it will still be fairly dry today, it will not be nearly
as dry as yesterday and red flag criteria will not be threatened.
The moistening trend will continue into Monday when the next
chance for a wetting rain will occur. Another cold frontal passage
will bring in drier air once again for the midweek period, but
again red flag criteria will not be met. Substantial rains will be
possible late in the week.
With the exception of the Apalachicola River at Blountstown, all
river points are below flood stage and generally subsiding from
recent rains. However, Blountstown is likely to fall below flood
stage at some point today as well. Early next week, a cold
front will bring another round of rain to the area, though average
totals appears as though they`ll remain below a half of an inch.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 72 42 78 50 76 / 0 0 0 10 40
Panama City 69 49 73 58 69 / 0 0 0 10 40
Dothan 69 45 77 55 66 / 0 0 0 10 60
Albany 68 44 77 52 70 / 0 0 0 10 40
Valdosta 72 45 80 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 40
Cross City 73 44 80 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 20
Apalachicola 67 48 69 58 72 / 0 0 0 10 40