Area Forecast Discussion
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021 FXUS62 KTAE 110110 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 910 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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High pressure and zonal flow aloft will keep winds light and skies clear tonight. Clear skies will allow temps to bottom out near 50.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Saturday]... VFR conditions will dominate this TAF period. Expect light southerly winds. Earlier today light smoke was reported at KABY due to a nearby fire. Sat imagery and METARS suggest the fire is winding down and will not affect the terminal tonight. Lack of low-level moisture will inhibit fog development.
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&& .Prev Discussion [209 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... High pressure will remain centered near or just east of the region throughout the short term period. This will result in a period of dry and warm conditions. After a cool start on Friday morning, temperatures will return to normal or slightly above normal values through the period. The model guidance does show a sea breeze developing along the coast each afternoon, which will likely result in temperatures in the coastal zone being a few degrees cooler in the afternoon given how cool the shelf waters remain. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... The primary focus in the long term period will be on an approaching storm system in the Monday through Tuesday Evening time frame. While the models are reasonably synced on the timing of this system bringing the bulk of the rain through on Monday afternoon and overnight, there are subtle differences with respect to the intensity of the system. Most of the models prefer a weaker solution with a cold front coming through early Tuesday morning with little prospect for severe weather or widespread heavy rain. The Euro tries to develop a more potent wave in the southern stream, resulting in a stronger system. For now, have kept the system more progressive and weaker. In any event, should be a good rain producer with 1 to 1.5 inches possible. Thereafter, drier and cooler conditions return for the remainder of the period. .Marine... High pressure will remain in place across the marine area throughout much of the weekend. By Sunday, as high pressure moves into the Western Atlantic, the tightening gradient between this high and an approaching storm system will result in increasing winds and seas by the first of the week. .Fire Weather... Light onshore flow through the remainder of the week will allow for low-level moisture levels to slowly rise. This should keep minimum humidity values above critical levels, with no fire weather concerns expected. .Hydrology... Nearly all of the rivers across the northern portion of our area have crested and are now beginning to fall. The crest wave down the Choctawhatchee/Pea River system is now at Geneva and will then be progressing downstream toward Caryville and Bruce. The river should stay in the minor flood category at Caryville, but further downstream at Bruce, moderate flooding is anticipated with the river having a chance to reach major flood levels. Releases from Woodruff have the Apalachicola River at flood stage with Blountstown likely to crest as high as 23 feet this weekend with releases starting to stabilize around 104kcfs. If releases stay at this level, it is unlikely Blountstown would reach moderate flood stage. In the Flint, Newton has crested and the Ichawaynochaway crest wave is nearing Riverview Plantation. The combination of the two flows will have Bainbridge very close to flood stage by tomorrow night. For the Ochlockonee, flows have continued to be a little higher than previously anticipated today, and thus it is now possible that minor flood levels may be reached from Thomasville through Havana, though any rises above flood stage shouldn`t be more than a few tenths of a foot.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 49 79 54 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 57 76 60 78 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 50 79 57 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 49 80 56 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 50 80 54 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 50 81 52 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 56 76 59 77 63 / 0 0 0 10 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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