Area Forecast Discussion
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770 FXUS62 KTAE 241534 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1134 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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An upper level low sits over the Carolinas today as high pressure is at the sfc over the southeast. High pressure will bring northeasterly winds with cooler drier air. With a tighter pressure gradient today winds will be gusty at times with max gusts of 20 mph expected. Cloud cover could linger throughout the day in parts of southwest GA. Highs will be in the low 80s this afternoon.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Thursday]... Ceilings are expected to scatter out by afternoon with the exception of perhaps VLD and ABY. Northeast winds will be gusting to around 15-20 kts in the afternoon.
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&& .Prev Discussion [235 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... The aforementioned upper low will open up into the longwave pattern after it is scooped up by a shortwave forecast to move into the Upper Midwest through Thursday. Deep layer ridging will build west from the western Atlantic to replace the departing low. With the upper low, departs the surface trough that has plagued the southeastern U.S. coastline. In its wake, high pressure will dominate, placing the Tri-State region under a more moist easterly flow regime by Friday. Expect most shower activity to remain offshore in the Gulf on Thursday, with our next best chance for rain over land areas coming on Friday. The greatest rain chances will be along and east of a line from Albany to Tallahassee (or the eastern half of the region). .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... Guidance is in pretty good agreement through the weekend, with deep moisture gradually increasing across the forecast area from south to north. The increase in moisture (as well as PoPs) will be due to a combination of a weak tropical wave approaching from the southeast and deepening southerly flow across the southeastern states ahead of a digging trough over the southern Plains. Expect to see an increase in PoPs south of I-10 on Friday, spreading to the remainder of the forecast area by Saturday and Sunday. The weather is likely to remain wet and unsettled into early next week as the upper trough and associated front slowly moves eastward. Temperatures should remain near seasonal norms for early fall. .Marine... Low pressure in the western Atlantic, competing with high pressure over the eastern U.S. will result in a continued enhancement in winds and seas over the northeast Gulf through Thursday. By Friday, we`ll switch to an easterly flow pattern which favors nighttime wind surges. Advisory conditions are no longer expected. However cautionary conditions are expected until Sunday. .Fire Weather... Despite drier air moving in behind a cold front, relative humidity values will not dip into the 30s, so red flag criteria will not be met. .Hydrology... On Friday we`ll begin to transition to a wet pattern which could bring 2+ inches of rain, over a few day stretch, to the region. Specifically, north Florida appears as though it will be affected most by the upcoming rain. However, with most rivers across Florida in low-flow stages, seven day rainfall amounts should not result in flooding levels along local rivers.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 84 63 86 68 86 / 10 0 10 10 30 Panama City 84 67 85 71 87 / 0 10 10 10 20 Dothan 82 62 84 65 86 / 0 0 10 0 20 Albany 81 62 84 66 86 / 0 0 10 10 30 Valdosta 81 63 84 67 86 / 10 10 20 10 40 Cross City 84 66 86 69 84 / 10 10 30 10 40 Apalachicola 84 69 83 72 84 / 0 10 10 10 30 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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