Area Forecast Discussion
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437
FXUS62 KTAE 151339
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
939 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A noticeably cooler, drier airmass is in place in the wake of a cold
front. The 12Z TAE sounding had an 850mb temperature of 8C, which is
beyond 2 standard deviations below normal for us for October. The
sounding reflected the drier air as well, with a PWAT of 0.45" (down
from 2.14" at 12Z yesterday!), which is below the 25th percentile
for October. With so much dry air aloft, skies will stay mostly
clear today. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s in our
northwestern zones to upper 80s in our southeastern zones. Winds
will pick up a bit early in the afternoon to around 10 MPH, with
gusts of 15-20 MPH possible, particularly in southeast Alabama and
southwest Georgia.


&&

.Prev Discussion [305 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Deep cut-off low over the Ohio Valley will slowly migrate
northeastward through Thursday keeping deep northwesterly flow in
place across the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure over
the western Gulf today will slide eastward through Friday. With a
very dry airmass in place (PWAT below 1 inch), no precip is
expected. Temperatures will be close to normal, with highs in the
upper 70s for Thursday and lower 80s for Friday, and lows around
50 the next two nights.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Broad troughing, or nearly zonal flow aloft, will prevail locally
through the extended range. At the surface, high pressure will
remain intact, with no rain in the forecast. Highs will hold
steady in the low 80s, which is near average for this time of
year. Lows, will be slightly below normal, in the lower to middle
50s.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Other than a few lingering clouds, skies have
mostly cleared out overnight. VFR conditions should prevail through
the TAF period with westerly winds.


.Marine...
Offshore flow near exercise caution conditions will continue
today as high pressure builds over the western Gulf. Conditions
will improve tonight and Thursday with light winds and minimal
seas continuing through the weekend.


.Fire Weather...
Although a drier air mass is expected across the region,
especially Wednesday to Friday, RH values are not expected to fall
to critical levels. RH values on Friday may approach red flag
thresholds in the western part of our area, but winds should have
decreased sufficiently such that red flag conditions are not
expected.


.Hydrology...
Several area rivers have shown sharp rises in response to the
rain that fell over the past 24-36 hours. However, prior to this
rain event river levels were so low that it is unlikely any of our
forecast points will reach minor flood stage. In fact, only a few
points along the Shoal and Choctawhatchee rivers are forecast to
remain in, or reach action stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   78  50  79  48  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   77  56  78  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        75  50  77  49  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        76  50  77  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      77  50  77  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    79  50  79  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  77  57  77  55  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN






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