Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 300606
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
106 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2013
.NEAR TERM [Today]...
High pressure centered over New England and extending down into the
Mid Atlantic States will move off into the Atlantic today resulting
in the low level flow across the region shifting to include more of
an easterly component. This will allow for more Atlantic moisture to
move back into the region later this morning and into the afternoon
hours. With the increase low level moisture, expect partly to mostly
cloudy skies by afternoon, especially east of a Tallahassee to
Albany line. There`s also a low chance of a few sprinkles, mainly
along and east of I-75 in the afternoon as depicted in a few of the
local WRF runs. With a cool airmass still in place and cloud cover
increasing during the afternoon, expect temperatures to remain below
normal with highs generally in the upper 50s to around 60 in Srn
Al/Ga and in the mid 60s in much of North Florida.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...
A broad, flat 500 mb ridge over the Gulf Coast region will give way
to a fast, eastward-moving trough Sunday Night and Monday. An
ill-defined cold front will accompany this trough, though the GFS
and ECMWF differ on the timing of this system. While there appears
to be fair Q-G forcing and mid-upper level moisture with this
trough, boundary layer moisture, convergence, and Lifted Index
values will be poor. MOS PoPs from the various models are not in
good agreement so we averaged the forecasts and "broad brushed" our
entire forecast area in a 30% PoP for Monday. Our QPF is under a
tenth of an inch. Thunderstorms are highly unlikely over land.
Overnight temperatures will be near average Sunday with lows in the
40s, then above average Monday with lows near 50. Highs will be near
to slightly above average Sunday and Monday, ranging from the mid
60s in our northern zones to lower 70s south.
.AVIATION [Through 06Z Sunday]...
VFR conditions prevail at TAF issuance with ceilings around 6kft
starting to impact VLD. Expect the VFR level ceilings to gradually
spread westward and lower with time throughout the day. Should see a
period of MVFR ceilings at VLD around sunrise into the early
afternoon hours. There`s potential of MVFR ceilings at TLH/ABY
during the late morning and early afternoon hours on Saturday but
the probability isn`t high enough at this time to include in this
TAF set. After 00z Sunday, expect more widespread MVFR ceilings to
develop with more pessimistic conditions likely after 06z Sunday.
This morning is likely to be the last "Exercise Caution" conditions
over the next several days, as a high pressure ridge settles across
the region Sunday afternoon and greatly reduces the pressure
gradient. The weak cold front scheduled to pass through the marine
area on Monday and Monday Night will have very little impact on
winds and seas.
With low level moisture increasing in easterly flow, no fire weather
conditions are expected today. With no significant intrusion of
drier air expected through much of the upcoming week, there are no
fire weather concerns expected through next week.
QPF amounts through Thursday are expected to be less than 0.25
inches, so we do not expect any major hydro issues for the upcoming
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 65 45 69 50 / 0 0 10 20
Panama City 64 49 67 55 / 0 0 0 20
Dothan 61 42 65 49 / 0 10 10 30
Albany 59 41 64 46 / 0 10 10 20
Valdosta 61 45 67 50 / 10 0 10 20
Cross City 70 48 73 52 / 10 10 0 20
Apalachicola 65 49 68 55 / 0 10 0 20
NEAR TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...Godsey
REST OF DISCUSSION...Fournier