Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 240929

429 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The unsettled zonal pattern aloft will continue for one more day.
Within the steady westerly flow, a low-level PV anomaly from
convection in west Texas yesterday is advecting over the Tri-State
region this morning. As a result, light to moderate rainfall is
being generated in the 300-305K window, or between 7-11kft. Though
the low-level anomaly has steadily weakened in it`s eastward trek,
it has been interacting recently with a surface trough extending
down the southern Appalachians, through the Suwannee Valley. This
explains the recent uptick in rainfall intensity. With cool high
pressure wedging down the eastern Seaboard and advancing from the
west, this trough will likely remain in place to start the day,
focusing moderate rainfall across Alabama and Georgia, with
lighter rain across north Florida.

Through today, a strong PV anomaly will dive into the Great Lakes
region and amplify the eastern CONUS trough. This will in turn
force a zonally elongated area of PV emanating from the cutoff
low across the Southwest, into the Southeast. This will strengthen
the aforementioned surface trough, and force it into the western
Atlantic while forcing the wedge to retreat north. What this means
for the sensible weather locally is that rain will quickly come to
an end from west to east starting as early as mid morning across
southeast Alabama, clearing our Georgia counties by late

With the widespread area of rain and thick cloud cover, high
temperatures will hold in the lower to middle 50s across Alabama
and Georgia, with low 60s expected across north Florida.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
The main focus will be on Wednesday`s system. A vigorous upper
level shortwave will allow for an area of low pressure to move
along the Gulf coast. Unfortunately, the 00z NAM and GFS actually
diverged in their track forecasts tonight with the NAM a northern
outlier and the GFS a southern outlier compared to the rest of the
guidance suite. If the NAM were to verify, then the warm sector
would move inland enough for a risk of severe storms. A track in
between the two extremes seems most likely with the warm sector
limited to near the coast and offshore. Given the expectation of a
strong low level jet and strong deep layer shear, it would not be
surprising to see a strong to severe squall line sweep across the
coastal waters and near the coast Wednesday afternoon and evening.
For most of the land area, expect to see moderate to occasionally
heavy stratiform rain with some embedded non-severe thunderstorms
possible given some elevated instability. However, given the
uncertainty with the low track and the very strong shear values
expected, the SPC day 2 outlook places a marginal risk of severe
storms across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia.
Expect clearing with dry weather returning on Thursday.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The upper flow along the Gulf Coast is forecast to return to a
zonal configuration pretty quickly behind Wednesday`s system,
keeping the bulk of the arctic air confined well north of the
area. Should see a warming trend kick in by the weekend as heights
begin to rise and high temperatures reach back into the mid to
upper 60s. A chance of showers could return by the weekend, but
currently do not see any additional significant systems through


[Through 12z Wednesday] A mix of MVFR ceilings and visibilities
will continue through the morning hours. Then, there is increasing
confidence that MVFR ceilings will lift into the VFR range, and
possibly scatter altogether by late this afternoon. MVFR ceilings
will spread in from the south late tonight, though just how far
inland it will reach is uncertain at this time.


Conditions will remain below headline levels until Wednesday, when
winds and seas will increase ahead of a low pressure system moving
across the Gulf of Mexico. After this system exits on Thursday,
strong high pressure is expected to build over New England with
moderate to strong east to northeast winds across the coastal
waters this weekend.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days, with rain expected through Thursday morning.


An areawide moderate to heavy rain event is still expected on
Wednesday. Total rainfall is now expected to be in the 1.5-2.5
inch range with isolated higher totals possible. This will cause
rises on area rivers and may bring a few of our sites back up to
action stage. At this time, flooding is not expected, although if
widespread rainfall amounts were to increase above 3 inches, then
the Kinchafoonee Creek as well as the Ochlockonee, Aucilla, and
Upper Withlacoochee Rivers could come close to minor flood stage.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   58  46  55  44  56 /  60  20 100  90  10
Panama City   57  47  56  44  54 /  30  30 100  90  10
Dothan        54  41  46  38  52 /  50  20 100  80  10
Albany        53  41  48  39  51 /  80  20 100  90  10
Valdosta      55  44  55  44  56 /  90  20 100 100  10
Cross City    63  50  64  53  60 /  50  20  70  90  20
Apalachicola  60  50  61  47  57 /  40  30  90  90  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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