Area Forecast Discussion
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642
FXUS62 KTAE 190857
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Surface high pressure will be centered over the region today, with
mostly sunny skies and slightly above normal temperatures this
afternoon. After a cool start, with temperatures in the lower 30s,
expect highs to reach the upper 60s for most of the area.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

The mid to upper level flow will be nearly zonal through the period.
The exception will be Tuesday night with the approach and passage of
an upper level disturbance and weak surface cold front. We expect
little if any rain and for now will show only a slight PoP over
portions of the Florida panhandle and adjacent waters. After one
more night of below normal temps tonight, min and max temps will
moderate to above seasonal levels. Tuesday will see highs around 70
to the lower 70s with only slightly cooler temps Wednesday after the
passage of the cold front.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

A developing low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico combined with
cool high pressure off to the northwest will make for another period
of cold and wet conditions across the area Thursday night and
Friday. At this time, it appears this system should clear the region
by the weekend with a likely return to fair and seasonable
conditions.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Tuesday] With high pressure centered over the area,
VFR conditions and very light winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.Marine...

Winds will be light and seas low through mid week. Winds and seas
will begin to increase by late Wednesday or Wednesday night as a
low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico approaches from the
west. Cautionary conditions possibly reaching advisory levels
will sweep across the local waters Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

A rather dry airmass will be in place today across the region, with
minimum humidity values in the mid to upper 20s. However, with very
light winds and sufficient soil moisture conditions, no Red Flag
conditions are anticipated. Low-level moisture will gradually
increase the middle of the week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Area rivers and streams should continue to slowly subside across the
HSA for the next several days, with no significant rainfall on the
horizon. The next chance for a widespread wetting rainfall across
the basins is not expected until the very end of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  35  72  47  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
Panama City   65  46  68  52  65 /   0   0  10  20  10
Dothan        67  42  69  46  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
Albany        67  38  69  48  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
Valdosta      68  37  72  48  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
Cross City    69  36  72  47  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  64  44  68  51  68 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GOULD




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