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196
FXUS62 KTAE 161402
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1002 AM EDT Thu May 16 2013


.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Little change needed with the morning update. Low amplitude trough
continues to deamplifiy as it ejects across the Srn Appalachians
this morning. This will maintain a few high level clouds and will
keep isolated PoPs across the western and northern counties today
as the system lifts enewd. Otherwise, we will continue the general
warming trend with near normal highs in the mid to upper 80s this
afternoon for inland sites with generally light winds. Overnight
min temps near normal are expected tonight as well with lows in
the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...
Weak upper level troughing will move across the area through the
short term and continue weakening as it does so. At the surface,
weak onshore flow will continue. Only very low rain chances on the
order of 10-20% are expected through Saturday with little in the
way of lift to generate convection. Afternoon highs are expected
to creep up into the upper 80s to near 90 on Friday and Saturday
with overnight lows mainly in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...
Weak troughing will be present along or just off the eastern
seaboard Sunday through mid week. At the surface, an east to west
ridge axis will remain in place through the period with the axis
wavering back and forth from our coastal waters to just inland.
Isolated convection will be possible each afternoon along and
ahead of the sea breeze in the warm moist environment. Afternoon
max temps will be near seasonal norms in the upper 80s, with
cooler upper 70s to lower 80s at the beaches. Overnight lows will
be slightly above normal in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION... [Through 12z Friday]
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period
at all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
A surface ridge of high pressure pressure will remain in place
over the waters through the weekend. This high will keep winds
light and primarily onshore with a slight enhancement in wind
speeds each afternoon near the coast in association with the sea
breeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Humidity values are expected to drop into the lower to mid 30s
each of the next few afternoons. While the warm temperatures and
high mixing heights will enhance dispersion values over Florida,
Red Flag conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no concerns on area rivers and creeks for the next
several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  61  88  61  89 / 10   0  10  10  20
Panama City   81  66  83  66  84 / 10   0  10  10  10
Dothan        87  62  88  63  89 / 10   0  20  10  20
Albany        87  62  89  63  90 / 10   0  20  10  20
Valdosta      85  61  90  62  91 / 10   0  20  10  20
Cross City    85  61  88  61  88 / 10   0  10  10  20
Apalachicola  79  64  82  63  83 / 10   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Evans
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Evans
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Evans