Area Forecast Discussion
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449
FXUS62 KTAE 141456
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1056 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH ON & OFF CLOUD
COVER. ALL THIS HUMIDITY AND MOISTURE IS BEING DRIVEN BY SOUTHERLY
WINDS COMING FROM THE GULF INTO OUR AREA. PWATS TODAY ARE ALSO
STILL FAIRLY HIGH WITH VALUES OF 1.58 AS OF THIS MORININGS 12Z
SOUNDING. THE INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY, ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S FOR THE
PANHANDLE AREA. COMBINED WITH ALL THE MOISTURE, THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS & STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK OF THE
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN ALONG
WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]...
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION AND
POSSIBLY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [406 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL OPEN UP AND
KICKED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF COAST REGION
UNDER WSW UPPER FLOW WITH RIPPLES OF ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD FROM
TIME TO TIME. A SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION,
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY COULD BACK DOOR INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA ON
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
CAROLINAS. PWATS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH WITH
LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR VALUES RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL KEEP
DAYTIME TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL CONTINUE RUNNING SOME 15-18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.|


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
BEFORE OPENING UP AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
REMAIN SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP/EVOLVE OVER THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS RUN
BACKED OFF ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM THE 18Z RUN AND NOW
DELAYS ANY DRYING UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THEREFORE,
LOOK FOR MORE OF THE SAME ATYPICAL APRIL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY AND
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD STAY HIGH.


.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP
RISES ON THE CHIPOLA RIVER WITH RISES ALSO NOTED ON THE
CHOCTAWHATCHEE, PEA AND SHOAL RIVERS. FOR THE MOST PART, AREA
RIVERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG
BEND TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THESE
TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA
RIVERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  68  82  67  83 /  50  40  50  50  60
PANAMA CITY   78  69  78  68  79 /  50  50  60  40  50
DOTHAN        83  65  81  65  80 /  60  50  60  50  60
ALBANY        86  66  81  65  78 /  60  50  70  60  60
VALDOSTA      85  67  83  66  82 /  50  40  60  50  60
CROSS CITY    87  67  84  67  82 /  20  30  50  40  60
APALACHICOLA  79  72  79  70  81 /  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY/ARROYO
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WOOL



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