Area Forecast Discussion
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676 FXUS62 KTAE 010630 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 230 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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After a cool and foggy start to the morning, today will be dry and warm. There is mostly zonal flow aloft today with a weak trough over the Pacific northwest and another over the Great Lakes. Regional surface analysis shows high pressure in place over the southeast with the center off to our north. The remnants of our last cold front lies across the central Gulf of Mexico and central Florida. With this boundary out over the water and moisture still plentiful in the region, light showers may develop today out over our offshore waters and in the southeastern Big Bend, but the rest of our area will stay dry. Highs today will be in the mid-upper 80s. .Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... At upper levels, relatively zonal flow at the start of the period will give way to a period of short-wave ridging on Thursday as a strong short wave pivots across the Central and Southern Plains. Most of that energy will be quickly shunted northeast and eventually absorbed by the long wave trough that will deepen into the Mississippi Valley on Friday. Tonight and Thursday will be warmer than normal with temps possibly reaching 90 in a few spots Thursday afternoon. PoPs will be relatively low as a front lifts north across the region. The upper trough will help to drive a cold front into the Southeast. The front should be crossing Alabama by 00Z Saturday with rain chances increasing substantially on Friday. Most of the area will see likely PoPs for Friday with somewhat lower rain chances across the eastern FL Big Bend. The increasing clouds and rain chances will shave a couple of degrees off max temps. However, with dew points in the lower 70s, it will feel quite muggy, especially for October. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... An approaching cold front is now fcst to push rapidly through the CWA on Friday night, with any remaining showers and storms coming to an end by Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the best forcing out ahead of this front will remain well to our north, so no strong or severe storms are expected at this time. However, this will be a strong cold front in terms of changing air masses, as our first real taste of fall weather is ushered in behind it. High temps will generally be in the upper 70s on both Sat. and Sun. with much drier air, before a gradual moderating trend returns them back into the lower to middle 80s for Mon. and Tue. The greatest impact behind the front will be low temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in the upper 40s to the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Thursday] MVFR-IFR vsbys this morning everywhere but ECP will clear out shortly after sunrise. VLD may see reduced cigs as well, which may hang around a little later. Winds will be light (less than 10 knots) and from the east/southeast.
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&& .Marine...
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Light winds and low seas will dominate the marine area through Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase out ahead of our next cold front, before they shift quickly to the northwest then north behind the front Friday night and Saturday. With a fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong cold front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary levels on Saturday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Relative humidities will dip into the upper 20s and low 30s this weekend in the wake of a cold front passage, however at this time it appears the 20 foot winds will likely be too low to produce red flag conditions.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Rainfall totals with the next frontal passage Friday are expected to generally be an inch or less, which will not cause significant rises on our area rivers.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 89 69 90 71 88 / 10 10 20 20 60 Panama City 87 73 87 74 86 / 10 10 30 30 50 Dothan 88 66 89 70 86 / 10 10 20 30 60 Albany 88 66 89 69 87 / 10 10 10 30 60 Valdosta 87 66 89 68 88 / 10 10 20 20 50 Cross City 88 68 89 68 88 / 20 20 30 20 40 Apalachicola 85 72 85 74 85 / 10 10 20 30 50
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...GOULD/WOOL

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