Area Forecast Discussion
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901 FXUS62 KTAE 240722 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 322 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Patchy dense fog early this morning should burn off by mid-morning, with partly cloudy skies dominating for the remainder of the day. The ridge over the southeastern states early this morning will slide east through the day as a shortwave trough digs into the Mississippi Delta region. With zonal flow aloft and a dry atmosphere in place, expect to see temperatures warm into the mid 80s this afternoon away from the coast. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out closer to the Suwannee River this afternoon as the east coast and gulf seabreezes meet up. Elsewhere, dry weather is expected. .Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... A weak disturbance will approach the region on Thursday evening and move just to the north of the region on Friday. While this disturbance will bring a slight increase in moisture, large scale forcing is relatively weak, so rain chances will be kept at 10 percent or less. Following the passing of this disturbance on Friday evening, drier air will filter into the region from the northwest as a stronger deep layer ridge starts to build in across the forecast area late Saturday. Temperatures throughout the period will continue to be warm, though cloud cover on Friday will likely limit temperatures to the low to mid 80s in the afternoon. As the deep layer ridge becomes more established by Saturday, temperatures will trend upward with upper 80s likely across many of the inland locations Saturday afternoon. Low temperatures will continue to stay a few degrees above normal, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. With the strong sea breeze circulation expected, temperatures during the afternoon near the coast will be several degrees cooler. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... The period begins with upper level ridging in place with surface high pressure off of the coast of South Carolina. To our northwest, an upper level low will begin to deepen over the central Plains as a shortwave trough propagates through it, deepening a surface low beneath it. As the shortwave trough swings through Monday, the low will become cut off and move eastward, pushing the surface low across the Plains and into the Ohio valley. The associated front will bring thunderstorms to our area Monday through Tuesday. The GFS is showing around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 kts, so there is the potential for some of these storms to be strong to severe. The system may linger over the eastern portion of the forecast area Tuesday night-Wednesday, but instability will be lower by mid-week, reducing the chances of severe weather.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Friday] IFR visibility expected at KTLH, KVLD, and KECP this morning, with conditions possibly approaching airport minimums. VFR conditions should return by mid-morning and hold through the remainder of the day. Another potentially foggy night is possible tonight.
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&& .Marine...
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Outside of the daily sea breeze circulation, winds and seas will remain low through the weekend. An increase in onshore winds and seas across the entire marine area is anticipated by Monday ahead of an approaching storm system.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Low level moisture levels will remain high enough to prevent any Red Flag conditions through Friday, as minimum relative humidity values stay in the 40s. As transport winds increase on Friday, dispersion values will increase into the 70s and 80s for inland locations.
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&& .Hydrology...
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All of our river points outside the Suwannee River Basin have crested and are now on a downward trend. However, major flooding continues on the Choctawhatchee at Bruce with moderate flooding occurring on the Chipola at Altha and Ochlockonee at Havana. Expect these and other points outside the Suwannee to continue their downward trend through the weekend. In the Suwannee River system, crests have occurred in the Withlacoochee at US-84 and throughout the entire Alapaha River. The Upper Suwannee crest wave has not quite passed White Springs, so with a large amount of water still working down the Withlacoochee and Upper Suwannee, modest rises will continue for the Middle Suwannee River points into early next week - and for a much longer period of time across the Lower Suwannee. Expect primarily minor flooding along the Suwannee, with notable exceptions occurring at Luraville (moderate flood) and possibly at Wilcox (potentially reaching moderate levels). Long range model guidance continues to indicate a return of potentially heavy rainfall in the Tue-Thurs timeframe next week. With many river points remaining well above normal flows for late April, area rivers have limited capacity to absorb additional heavy rainfall which continues to indicate a high river flood potential as we approach the first of May.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 85 60 84 60 85 / 10 10 10 10 0 Panama City 76 64 78 64 79 / 10 10 10 10 0 Dothan 84 61 84 59 87 / 10 10 10 10 0 Albany 84 61 84 59 87 / 10 10 10 10 0 Valdosta 85 59 84 60 87 / 20 10 10 10 0 Cross City 84 58 81 60 84 / 10 10 10 10 0 Apalachicola 74 64 76 64 75 / 10 10 10 10 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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