Area Forecast Discussion
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155 FXUS62 KTAE 272113 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 413 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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High pressure moving over the Ohio River Valley will bring a northeasterly flow at the sfc. That means an increase in low level moisture and subsequently more cloud cover, particularly over the coastal waters and Big Bend. Temps will range from the mid to upper 30s in the northwest to lower to mid 40s in the southeast. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool, and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon. This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon. Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of the period.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected today with only high clouds. In the overnight to early morning hours low clouds will form (VFR). By morning, MVFR conditions are possible at TLH and VLD. Northerly winds will shift to northeasterly and will remain below 10 knots.
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&& .Marine...
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A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage. Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend. Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend. With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 42 58 50 68 58 / 0 20 20 10 20 Panama City 43 59 51 63 58 / 0 10 10 10 20 Dothan 37 55 44 60 54 / 0 10 10 10 30 Albany 38 51 44 59 53 / 0 10 20 30 30 Valdosta 42 54 48 67 59 / 0 20 30 20 20 Cross City 45 61 54 73 60 / 10 50 30 10 20 Apalachicola 45 60 55 65 61 / 10 30 10 10 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM- Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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