Area Forecast Discussion
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573 FXUS62 KTAE 262009 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 309 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Weak high pressure at the surface centered to our north will shift eastward today and tonight with light winds from the east through the period. Not far to our west, winds from the south are increasing ahead of a developing cold front that will move across the southeast later this weekend. Winds begin to veer to the south and then southwest aloft, returning moisture to the air column over us. Upper level wind speeds are increasing as well, which is leading to increased divergence aloft. Upper level cloud cover will continue to increase from west to east through the period, keeping temperatures moderated. Highs today will be in the low 60s and overnight lows will be in the 40s. With high soil moisture from our recent rainfall and light winds overnight, patchy fog may develop in our eastern zones where there is less cloud cover aloft. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... The deep layer ridging will initially be stubborn to move east and we backed off a bit on the rain chances for Saturday and Saturday night. PoPs will be tapered likely northwest to silent 10% southeast both periods. For Sunday and Sunday night as the cold front enters our western zones, we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms spreading east impacting the entire CWA. This system certainly is not as robust as the one earlier in the week with QPF amounts generally under one inch. Temps will be well above normal through the weekend, with highs on Saturday ranging from the middle 60s over SE AL to the middle 70s over the SE FL Big Bend. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 70s across the entire region with lows Saturday night in the mid 50s. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... Rain chances will end from west to east on Monday as the cold front pushes through. Then, we should see dry weather with seasonal temperatures at least through Wednesday before rain begins to spread into the local region ahead of the next developing low pressure system on New Year`s day and Friday. With increasing cloud cover and a continuation of offshore flow, temps will be below seasonal levels Thursday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Veering flow ahead of the cold front on Friday will bring temps back to near normal.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions should prevail through the period, although some guidance is hinting at brief MVFR cigs/vsbys at our eastern terminals overnight, most likely at VLD. Winds will be light and easterly.
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&& .Marine...
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With fairly weak high pressure ridging initially centered off to our east, generally light to moderate onshore flow with low seas will dominate the coastal waters for the first half of the upcoming week. Beyond this current forecast, however, a significant tightening of the pressure pattern may occur by the middle and end of next week, which may cause some sharp rises in winds and seas.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Recent heavy rainfall in combination with a disturbed pattern in the forecast will wash out fire weather concerns through the period. Low mixing heights and transport winds will result in very low dispersion indices on Saturday. Dispersion will increase substantially for Sunday as both mixing heights and transport winds increase.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Primary focus over the next 48 hours will be monitoring the flood wave moving through the Ochlockonee River as well as the crest moving through the Withlacoochee System. In the Ochlockonee River, the crest wave is in between Thomasville and Concord with Concord likely to crest in the next 18 hours about 1.5 feet below major flood stage. Downstream at the Havana gauge, a crest just below major flood stage is anticipated. Due to increased inflows into Lake Talquin, operations there will require additional releases at the dam which will result in flood stages being approached again at Bloxham and at Smith Creek. For the Withlacoochee System, around 20kcfs is working its way down the Little River, which will result in high end minor flooding around Hahira and downstream near the confluence with the Withlacoochee. Elevated flows from the Withlacoochee will result in moderate flooding below Valdosta at the US-84 gauge. Further downstream, the Withlacoochee will continue to rise at Pinetta, but should remain in the action stage category. Elsewhere across the region, the Choctawhatchee River will crest later tonight at Caryville with rises on Bruce to continue into early next week, all in the minor flood category. The next storm system looks to deliver up to 1 inch of rain on Sunday night into Monday. This shouldn`t have significant impacts on area rivers, aside from slowing the rate of recession briefly. For the most up to date information, please visit: http://www.water.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 45 71 55 77 60 / 0 10 10 20 40 Panama City 50 69 59 76 61 / 10 30 10 20 40 Dothan 43 65 56 76 56 / 0 50 50 40 50 Albany 41 68 53 77 58 / 0 30 40 30 50 Valdosta 44 70 56 77 61 / 0 10 10 10 30 Cross City 47 76 57 79 61 / 0 10 10 10 30 Apalachicola 52 67 59 73 63 / 10 20 10 10 40
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...BARRY/GOULD FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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