Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
380 FXUS62 KTAE 011053 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 653 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY]... MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE YET TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE, HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION FROM THE TAF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TODAY AT ABY AND VLD, WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BRING IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS TO MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PREV DISCUSSION [347 AM EDT]...
-- Changed Discussion --
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]... THIS MORNING`S REGIONAL SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL/GA. CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG THIS FRONT HAS DRIFTED ESE IN THE WNW FLOW REGIME AS AN MCS. THE CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS BEST HANDLING THIS ONGOING CONVECTION IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT DROPS INTO OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL, A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TODAY, AND A DEVELOPING BACKDOOR FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR SOUTH GEORGIA COUNTIES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT, THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS TODAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE WHERE THE SEABREEZES AND OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS INTERACT. IN THIS REGION, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL MEAN ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL, FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]... THE FAIRLY ZONAL MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL MOVE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS RATHER QUICKLY THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TROUGH ON THURSDAY, THEN A RIDGE ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. POPS WILL BE SLIGHT THURSDAY WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING AND LESS-THAN-IMPRESSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. (OF COURSE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 70S AT THE BEACHES DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOL GULF COASTAL WATERS). .LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]... A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, BUT THIS FRONT, LIKE MOST OF OUR APRIL FRONTS, WILL BECOME MOISTURE-STARVED BY THE TIME IT LIMPS INTO OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THUS WE HAVE ONLY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY. THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MOSTLY ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT IT WILL QUICKLY DAMPEN OUT EVEN FURTHER AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER, OR CLOSER TO AVERAGE, THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS SUNDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. .MARINE... RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THAT DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS. .HYDROLOGY... THE RIVERS WERE ALL BELOW THEIR LOCAL "ACTION" STAGES THIS MORNING, AND ARE LIKELY TO SLOWLY RECEDE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THERE ARE NO WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
TALLAHASSEE 84 61 82 57 84 / 20 10 10 10 10 PANAMA CITY 75 63 75 61 75 / 10 10 0 0 10 DOTHAN 81 61 81 57 82 / 20 20 10 10 10 ALBANY 82 60 81 58 83 / 30 20 20 10 10 VALDOSTA 81 61 81 60 84 / 30 20 20 10 10 CROSS CITY 82 61 82 60 84 / 20 10 20 10 10 APALACHICOLA 79 63 74 61 76 / 10 10 0 0 0
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.