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453 FXUS62 KTAE 312314 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 714 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Aloft, broad trough dominates Ern 2/3rd of Conus with CWA at its base. At lower levels, low across SE GA coast with cold front SSW. Locally this translates to NE flow at lower levels and WLY flow above H7. Isold shwrs assocd with surface low might make it far enough WWD to impact our Ern most counties. Otherwise no POPs. We expect increasing high clouds with lows around 70 degrees. This is my last AFD as I will be retiring (in 31/2 hrs) after 28 years with NWS (33 years with government). Its been a pleasure interacting with so many NWS staffers and our user community in each of my four offices...NYC-JFK, Phoenix, San Juan, and since 1998 Tallahassee. To the many I worked with in the Outreach/EEO/Diversity community in all four offices, I end with.... GOOD BYE...ADIOS...ADDIO...ADEUS...AU REVOIR...ZOO MUS ZOO... BEANNACHY MAITH...FARVEL...TOT ZIENS...BAGAY...GULE GULE...TAM BIET Ron Block
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Saturday]...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. There is a low end chance for afternoon convection Friday at ABY and VLD. Winds will be light.
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&& .Prev Discussion [241 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Friday Through Sunday]... Our recent run of unusually dry weather will gradually come to an end this weekend as a fairly high-amplitude 500 mb trough develops over the Ohio Valley, and extends southward to the central Gulf Coast. Additionally, a frontal system (remnants of the cold front that moved through our region Monday night) will meander across our forecast area. The GFS and ECMWF do not forecast a uniform, robust return of deep layer moisture, as both models indicate a substantially drier airmass will remain across much of the FL Panhandle and Big Bend through into this weekend. In GA and AL for Friday & Saturday, the combination of sufficient deep layer moisture and synoptic scale forcing yields near- average PoPs- in the 30-40% range, but only 20-30% in FL. On Sunday we expect a more uniform PoP distribution for our whole region, in the 40-60% range. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the mid 90s, "cooling" to lower 90s Sunday with more clouds. Lows will be in the 70s. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Thursday]... The aforementioned positive-tilt 500 mb trough will continue to stretch from TN to the Northwest Gulf of Mexico, bringing moist southwest flow aloft over our forecast area through Tuesday. This, along with aforementioned remnant frontal system across our region will contribute to above-climo rain chances (50-60% PoPs). By Wednesday and Thursday, however, a deep layer ridge will build across the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast, reducing (somewhat) the deep layer moisture and synoptic scale forcing. This will mark a return to a more typical late summertime pattern, with near-climo PoPs (30-40%) and thunderstorms driven primarily by the sea/land breeze circulation and other mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures will be near climatology, with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the 70s. .Marine... Typically low summertime winds and seas will continue through this weekend as the surface pressure gradient will be very weak. Winds will generally be from the south at 10 KT or less with seas 2 ft or less, except for slightly higher values near the coast each afternoon and early evening due to daytime heating. .Fire Weather... With increasing moisture and rain chances over the next several days, no fire weather concerns are expected. .Hydrology... With our area rivers below bank full stage and seasonable rainfall totals in the forecast, no flooding is expected through the next week.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 69 94 70 94 72 / 0 10 10 30 20 Panama City 73 89 75 89 75 / 0 10 10 30 20 Dothan 69 91 71 90 72 / 10 20 20 40 30 Albany 70 92 72 92 73 / 10 30 20 40 30 Valdosta 69 93 70 93 72 / 10 30 10 40 20 Cross City 69 93 69 93 72 / 10 20 10 30 20 Apalachicola 71 88 75 89 75 / 10 10 10 30 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOCK SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...FOURNIER/BLOCK FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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