Area Forecast Discussion
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106 FXUS62 KTAE 270823 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 323 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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We continue to see a highly amplified pattern across North America this Thanksgiving morning with a trough over the east and a ridge out west. The good news is that the trough is finally beginning to lift out. At the surface, another cold front (a dry one this time) will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air to the region. Daytime highs, despite full sunshine, will only range from the mid 50s for areas north of a ABY-DHN line to the lower 60s across the southern FL Big Bend. This is 10-12 degrees below normal. These cool temps will be made to feel even more brisk with the addition of some gusty northwest winds. .Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... The upper level trough along the eastern seaboard will move east over the western Atlantic with deep layer ridging gradually building in over the local region. The position of the surface high will be centered over the Tennessee Valley by daybreak Friday. Overnight winds will be light from the north but we still should see a light freeze across most inland areas. Highs will remain below average Friday (mid to upper 50s). Another light freeze is possible Friday night, mainly along and east of the river. With rising heights as the upper ridge builds in, temps will be warmer on Saturday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... The deep layer ridge will hold through Sunday then move east with the upper flow becoming nearly zonal through the remainder of the period. The next cold front will approach late Thursday but any rain with this system should hod off until Thursday night or Friday. Highs will be seasonal in the lower 70s with lows in the gradually moderating from the lower to mid 40s Saturday night to the lower 50s by Wednesday night.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions under clear skies will prevail through the period. The only impact to aviation weather will be gusty northwest winds during the daylight hours. Gusts will be up around 20 mph.
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&& .Marine...
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Advisory level conditions will continue across the marine area through late morning with cautionary conditions this afternoon. Winds and seas are expected to increase to advisory levels once again after midnight diminishing below headline criteria Friday afternoon. Low winds and seas are forecast for this weekend.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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After several days of wetting rains, drier air has finally arrived today and will remain in place for several days. The driest day will be Friday. However, winds will not be high enough to achieve red flag criteria on that day. Additionally, fuel moisture is high after several days of rain. High dispersion indices are expected once again today with values around 75 across parts of Southeast AL and inland portions of the central and eastern FL Big Bend.
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&& .Hydrology...
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The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River, minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are anticipated in the near future.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 60 32 57 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 60 39 56 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 56 32 55 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 57 30 57 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 58 31 56 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 62 32 58 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 63 39 57 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...WOOL SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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