Area Forecast Discussion
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263
FXUS62 KTAE 160032
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
832 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Just made a few tweaks to the current forecast. The cold front has
passed through our area and is currently traversing through north
central Florida. Drier and cooler air will continue to advect
further south and east overnight giving way to an unseasonably
cool night. The remnant cloud deck over the eastern Florida Big
Bend should mix out in the next couple hours leading to clear
skies overnight. Although we will have clear skies, the winds
won`t go calm overnight preventing optimal radiational cooling
conditions. Therefore lows will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s
north and west of a line extending from Tallahassee to Valdosta,
and lower 40s south and east of the aforementioned line.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]...
Skies will continue to clear from west to
east with all but some thin high clouds across the area by 03Z.
Gusty northwest winds will veer to northeast and decrease to less
than 10kts all terminals by 06Z. Winds will increase from the east
after 15Z and gradually diminish again after 20Z.

&&

.Prev Discussion [342 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A ridge of high pressure and a briefly drier air mass will control
the regional weather through Wednesday evening with mostly sunny
skies. The morning hours are likely to be quite chilly, but by
afternoon we should warm into the 60s to perhaps around 70 degrees
in the Florida Big Bend. The surface high pressure ridge will
erode quickly from early Thursday morning onward. Easterly
boundary layer flow and increasing moisture should lead to
gradually increasing chances of rain showers, although PoPs
through the entire period are below 50%. With a slight amount of
instability Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, we included
isolated thunderstorm wording in those periods as well. There are
still significant differences between various models on the
possible development of a surface low in the Gulf associated with
a digging shortwave trough on Thursday. For now, we have adopted a
consensus approach that reflects gradually increasing easterly
flow and chances of rain showers.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Both the GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement showing a
low over the Gulf phasing with a trough extending down from the
Great Lakes on Friday. This will kick off another round of showers
and storms through Friday evening. Ridging settles in by Saturday
and temperatures begin to trend towards climo. On Monday, zonal
flow brings another weak system north of our CWA but it appears
there will only be a slight chance of rain with this system.


.Marine...

N-NW flow 20-25 knots will continue through the night, and
gradually veer to the NE before diminishing on Wednesday morning.
After that, an extended period of easterly flow will set up for
the rest of the week with periodic SCEC or perhaps brief advisory
level winds - especially at night.


.Fire Weather...

Although much drier air will push into the region from the
northwest tonight and Wednesday, soil moisture will be very
high due to the widespread heavy rainfall which fell during the
past 24 hours. Additionally, high temperatures on Wednesday are
not expected to be warm enough for relative humidities to reach
critical levels. Thereafter, a gradual warming and moistening
trend is expected with no fire weather concerns for the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

A band of heavy rain set up across the Florida Panhandle overnight.
Many areas in Florida got 2 to 3 inches of rain overnight and this
morning, with isolated amounts of 4 to 5 inches. The Georgia and
Alabama counties got less rain, 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts
of 2 to 3 inches. The Chipola River near Altha is rising quickly and
will likely crest in moderate flood stage. The St. Marks River
near Newport is also rising quickly and will also likely crest in
moderate flood stage. Moderate flooding is occurring along the
Choctawhatchee River near Bruce. Otherwise where flooding was
occurring it was generally in minor flood stage. Many rivers will
stay elevated through the week. Next chance for rain is Friday.
Rain totals Friday are expected to be around half an inch.

The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be
found on the AHPS page at
http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   40  71  48  73  59 /   0   0  10  30  40
Panama City   43  69  53  73  61 /   0   0  10  30  40
Dothan        36  67  45  71  56 /   0   0  10  20  30
Albany        37  67  44  71  55 /   0   0  10  20  30
Valdosta      40  69  48  72  58 /   0   0  20  30  40
Cross City    42  72  52  77  60 /   0   0  20  30  50
Apalachicola  43  68  54  71  64 /   0   0  20  30  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NAVARRO/FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/WALSH
AVIATION...HOLLINGSWORTH
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT






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