Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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641
FXUS62 KTAE 190025
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
825 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING REMAINS UNCHANGED AND
PLAN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POPS OVERNIGHT TO CAPTURE THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL COME TO AND END THIS EVENING AND WE`LL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
DECAYING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT ADVECTING INLAND OVERNIGHT.
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR DAWN, A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE A SQUALL LINE AT THE DOOR OF OUR
ALABAMA AND PANHANDLE COUNTIES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z MONDAY] CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR
TO IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. A
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ECP-DHN CORRIDOR AROUND
SUNRISE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [408 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
+PV ANOMALY WILL SWING E-NEWARD, DECAYING INTO A SW TROUGH AS IT
LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS LOW HEADS
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, IT WILL ENHANCE THE UL JET AS WELL AS THE
LLJ. THIS +PV ANOMALY ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WITH A LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY
MORNING LIFTING TOWARD THE NERN STATES BY MONDAY, TRAILING A COLD
FRONT WITH IT ALONG THE ERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY, OUR
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH
MOST OF THE STORMS CLEARING BY SUNDAY EVENING.

WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST, A RICH PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL FEED THIS SYSTEM AND ALLOW MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2", BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 3-6" OF RAIN, WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, THE ENHANCED LLJ AND UL
JET WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, ALTHOUGH HAIL
AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO NOT
BE RULED OUT.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRIER, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN STATES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE DISTURBED
PATTERN WILL QUICKLY RETURN WITH MORE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES
EJECTING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE AREA WILL SEE CLOUD
COVER RETURN WITH 20-30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS TOMORROW AS A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. MORE CAUTIONARY PERIODS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES, BUT AT THIS TIME ADVISORY LEVELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME PATCHY
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A RISE OF AREA RIVERS WITH
MANY REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER
IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AT BRUCE ON MONDAY. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6"
POSSIBLE, OTHER RIVERS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  81  67  84  64 /  50  70  30  30  10
PANAMA CITY   71  78  71  78  65 /  70  80  20  30  10
DOTHAN        68  79  66  81  59 /  80  90  20  30  10
ALBANY        69  79  66  82  59 /  50  80  20  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  83  67  86  62 /  30  80  20  30  10
CROSS CITY    70  83  67  81  65 /  30  60  30  40  10
APALACHICOLA  73  79  71  80  67 /  40  70  30  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR CALHOUN-CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL
     FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND
     BAY-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND GULF-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-LEON-
     LIBERTY-NORTH WALTON-SOUTH WALTON-WASHINGTON.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR BAKER-BEN HILL-CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-
     EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN-LEE-MILLER-MITCHELL-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-
     SEMINOLE-TERRELL-THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH.

AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA-HENRY-HOUSTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON/MOORE



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