Area Forecast Discussion
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755
FXUS62 KTAE 230102
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
902 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Made a few updates to the inherited forecast to reflect current
forecast thinking. A weak cold front will slowly continue to move
southeastward overnight before stalling out in our far southern
CWA early tomorrow morning. There are ongoing showers ahead of the
frontal boundary over our northern Georgia and Alabama counties,
but due to lack of forcing expect a diminishing trend as they move
further south. Hires guidance, such as the HRRR and locally run
WRFS, and recent radar trends support this notion. Therefore
expect showers ending shortly after midnight before they reach the
Florida border. Beginning in the early morning hours before
sunrise expect patchy fog to develop throughout the CWA. The
greatest chance of seeing more widespread fog exists from
Tallahassee westward into the Florida Panhandle during this
aforementioned time frame. Otherwise expect a partly cloudy night
with lows bottoming out in the upper 50s, except along the
immediate coast which will be in the lower 60s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00z Thursday]...VFR conditions prevail at
TAF issuance time, with some higher ceilings at the northern
terminals of DHN and ABY with some scattered SHRA. The SHRA should
diminish quickly between 00z and 03z this evening, although some
mid-level cloud cover may linger further north. Models indicate
the development of some areas of low CIGS and fog overnight -
particularly between 07z and 12z - with IFR or briefly LIFR VIS
possible. Confidence is higher in this occurring at TLH, ECP, and
VLD. VFR expected again tomorrow after the fog dissipates, with an
afternoon sea breeze wind shift at ECP.

&&

.Prev Discussion [205 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The mid/upper level local pattern begins with shortwave trough well
into Atlc replaced by amplified ridging...rising heights and
subsidence. At surface...remnants of Tuesday`s cold front limps
into our SE Big Bend Swwd into our Nrn marine area. In its
wake...area model soundings show flow sfc-upper levels NWLY
however with proximity of front...PWATS remain around 1 inch.

During the rest of the period...local ridge amplifies into Thurs
ahead of upstream trough/low developing over Wrn states. By
aftn... this low pivots Newd resulting in Ern ridge flattening
yielding near zonal flow. At surface...increasingly diffuse front
lingers in place before likely lifting Nwd late Wed into Thurs as
high develops over NE Gulf and...along with ridge across Nrn Gulf
Coast...remains established into Thurs night. The combination of
strong mid/upper subsidence and weakening front south will yield
partly to mostly sunny skies. The lifting front will shift local
winds to onshore on Thurs with rising humidity as reflected in
model PWATS which remain around 1 inch. So it will feel muggy.
With very dry mid/upper levels...at best isold POPs near the
front. Temperatures will be near climatology through the period,
with lows in the 50s and highs in the lower to mid 80s.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

On Friday, a weak surface trough will extend down from the Great
Lakes. This trough will become oriented SW to NE as the parent low
moves off to the northeast and the trough weakens. Southerly flow
off the Gulf and weak forcing will cause a slight chance of
thunderstorms over the the northern half of our area Friday through
Saturday. Ridging will settle in on Sunday with southerly surface
flow which will bring highs in the mid to upper 80s during the day.
At the end of the period both the GFS and EURO show a very amplified
pattern emerging with a deep upper-level trough digging down over
the southern Plains. While these models differ some in timing and
structure, they both show a blocking pattern emerging with a strong
upper ridge in the west and an amplified deep trough in the east.
This system should be our best chance of seeing showers and
thunderstorms in the extended period.


.Marine...

Despite the front approaching from the north into tonight, then
stalling across extreme North FL through Thursday, winds and seas on
the whole will remain quite low. The exception will be a moderate
increase in onshore winds and chop near the coast each afternoon
because of the daily sea breeze.


.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected through the remainder of the
week.


.Hydrology...

Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood
stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is at major flood stage, several
others are in moderate. Most area rivers will crest soon or have
already crested. The exception is the Suwannee River chich will rise
slowly for the remainder of the week. Rainfall amounts are expected
to be less than 0.25 inch and will have little impact on area river
levels.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   58  83  58  82  61 /  10   0   0  10   0
Panama City   61  78  63  75  64 /  10   0   0  10   0
Dothan        58  83  57  83  61 /  40   0   0  10  10
Albany        56  83  56  83  60 /  50   0   0  20  10
Valdosta      57  84  59  83  60 /  30  10  10  20   0
Cross City    60  83  59  82  59 /  10  10  10  20   0
Apalachicola  62  76  63  74  63 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NAVARRO/GOULD
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN






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