Area Forecast Discussion
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802 FXUS62 KTAE 310714 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 314 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Outside of a slight chance of a light shower or thunderstorm across extreme NE portions of our GA zones later this afternoon, another mostly sunny (through periods of high cloudiness), seasonably hot, but unseasonably dry day is expected across the region today. High temps will range from the upper 80s along the immediate coast, to the lower to middle 90s over the interior with some filtered sunshine from time to time. Thereafter, as described below, a more unsettled pattern is slated to return to our region to begin the month of August. .Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... After a dry Thursday, rain chances will begin to increase in advance of an amplifying longwave trof. Even though PWATs are forecast to remain below climatological levels in FL, there will be enough moisture in our AL and GA counties to yield 30-50% PoPs. For Florida locations, dry air will take another day to moisten as deep-layer SW flow does not becoming fully established until Friday afternoon. Saturday will have rain chances returning to normal area-wide as moisture will be at seasonal norms. Temperatures for the period follow closely with PoPs. Most rain free areas will see low to mid 90s on Friday, while AL and GA counties will likely see low 90s before the onset of convection. On Saturday, low 90s are expected CWA-wide. Low temperatures will return to a seasonable level. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... The long term pattern will feature a nearly stationary mid-upper level longwave trough axis extending from the Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast (in other words, just west of our area). This will set up a stretch of several days from the weekend into early next week with large scale forcing for ascent and PWATs around 2" (slightly above normal). Just considering those factors, we would expect days with relatively high convective coverage. However, the low-mid level flow will be out of the south or southeast, which also tends to favor a rainy pattern. Therefore, PoPs for Sunday to Tuesday have been increased into the "likely" range (~60%) with slightly cooler high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12z Friday] Outside of passing CI decks from time to time and possibly a sct CU field, expect VFR conditions with light winds to continue through the period. Some of the guidance did indicate a brief possibility of MVFR conditions at VLD overnight tonight, but did not believe confidence was high enough to include it at this time.
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&& .Marine...
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Typical summertime conditions are forecast with low seas and winds through the period.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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With increasing moisture and rain chances over the next several days, no fire weather concerns are expected.
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&& .Hydrology...
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All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low flow stage. Rainfall next week will be near our seasonal average, so no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 94 69 94 71 93 / 10 10 20 20 40 Panama City 88 74 88 75 88 / 10 0 20 20 30 Dothan 90 69 92 71 92 / 10 10 40 20 50 Albany 90 69 93 71 92 / 10 10 50 30 50 Valdosta 96 69 95 71 92 / 10 10 30 20 50 Cross City 94 69 92 71 92 / 10 10 20 20 40 Apalachicola 89 70 88 72 88 / 10 0 10 20 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN/DOBBS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...HARRIGAN/DOBBS FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/MOORE

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