Area Forecast Discussion
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465 FXUS62 KTAE 201944 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 344 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Regional radar mosaics do reveal some isolated showers over the northeast Gulf of Mexico near a low-level convergence zone, as was expected with this morning`s forecast. These showers should continue through the afternoon and may clip some land areas near Apalachicola before diminishing in the early evening. A continued weak pressure pattern with dry northwest flow aloft should lead to a dry night with diminishing cloud cover. Subsidence combined with clearing skies could lead to some patchy fog in a few areas, and that was included in the forecast. Otherwise, lows should be mostly in the 50s, with a few upper 40s possible in the far northwest and west parts of the forecast area. .Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... A large upper level trough along the east coast will keep upper level northwesterly flow in place across the area through the short term. Surface high pressure centered north of the region will keep the low level flow northerly as well, preventing deep moisture from return and keeping rain chances near zero. Daytime highs will be near average with overnight lows near to slightly below average with the dry airmass in place. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Tuesday] While some patchy fog cannot be ruled out at any of the terminals overnight, confidence is not high enough to include it in the TAFs yet other than a brief period of MVFR VIS at VLD around daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with light winds.
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&& .Marine...
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Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday and Thursday as another dry cold front moves through.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Although afternoon relative humidities will remain fairly low through the period, it is not expected to become dry enough to create any Red Flag concerns. However, with the high dispersions on Wednesday, caution should be used during any controlled burns.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding concerns.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 54 83 50 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 59 81 57 78 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dothan 51 81 49 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 51 82 48 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 55 82 50 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 57 84 52 81 47 / 10 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 62 81 56 78 52 / 10 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...DVD

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