Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 181903
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
303 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Scattered showers are continuing to move through the region this
afternoon and will gradually dissipate after sunset as the
instability of the day diminishes. Leftover cloud cover from
earlier convective activity will still linger over the region and
likely limit overall fog potential tonight.
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
An early summertime pattern with high pressure east of the Florida
Peninsula will keep light southerly flow in place across the
region. Despite the southerly flow, deep layer moisture is notably
absent and this will serve to limit pop chances through the first
part of the week. Rain chances of only 20 to 30 percent each
afternoon with the best potential in the Southeastern Big Bend.
Temperatures will be noticeably warmer and more typical of late May
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
Long range models in general agreement with the overall pattern for
this time period. An upper level ridge prevails across the region
Tuesday and Wednesday with an upper low in the northern/central
plains. This pattern shifts east later in the week resulting in a
weak trough across the area for Thursday and Friday. By Saturday
current trends are pointing toward ridging across the central CONUS.
POPs will increase for the Thursday-Friday period to 30-40% and drop
off to isolated activity for Tuesday and Saturday. Expect
typical diurnal cycle convection with highs and overnight lows both
slightly above normal.
.AVIATION [Beginning 19Z Saturday]...
Saturday 18Z-22Z expect scattered thunderstorms affecting
KABY-KTLH-KVLD. From Sat 22Z to Sun 00Z expect showers and tstms to
gradually dissipate. Overnight low ceilings and some patchy fog will
redevelop, especially in areas that received rain this afternoon.
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate
our coastal waters for the next several days, with just some minor
enhancements near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days, thus red flag conditions are not anticipated.
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 63 90 65 90 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
Panama City 67 84 68 87 69 / 0 10 10 10 10
Dothan 67 89 67 91 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
Albany 67 90 69 91 67 / 10 20 10 10 10
Valdosta 65 90 66 90 65 / 20 20 20 20 10
Cross City 65 88 64 87 64 / 10 20 10 20 10
Apalachicola 65 83 66 84 67 / 0 10 10 10 10