Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 181345

945 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Previous forecast is on track. With the Sfc cold front expected to
be pushed further to our south today, much drier air will advect
in from the northwest. This will allow dew points to mix out into
the lower to middle 60s away from the coast this afternoon.
Although dry, it will still be quite warm across the region today,
with high temps climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s under
partly cloudy skies. Rain chances should also be limited to the
coastal waters, with PoPs no higher than 20-30%.



With all rivers below flood stage and light rainfall amounts
expected through the weekend, river flooding is not a concern.


.Prev Discussion [726 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Two distinct features will play an important role in the evolution
of the synoptic pattern and subsequently convective coverage
through Saturday. The first is an upper level +PV anomaly, or
shortwave, currently centered over eastern South Dakota. The
second is a ribbon of mid-level +PV created by convection along
a stationary boundary draped northwest to southeast through the
central Plains. These two features will "merge" as they enter the
Southeast, with the mid-level anomaly forcing the upper shortwave
to cutoff from the more progressive northern stream flow.

On Friday, expect the best deep layer synoptic ascent associated
with the shortwave to be just south and east of our southeast Big
Bend counties. This will place the main +PV anomaly directly over
the Tri-State region by the afternoon. The result of this will be
a strengthening surface ridge and associated wedge of cooler air
pressing southwest into our region. This relatively weak boundary
should be strong enough to initiate some convection along its
leading edge. Though, the vertical extent of these storms should
be limited with plenty of dry air slipping in aloft.

On Saturday, the mid-level anomaly will have amplified the upper-
level cutoff low over southeast Georgia. Both of the
aforementioned features will have induced low-level cyclogenesis
over the western Atlantic, placing the the region under a fairly
strong low-level northeasterly flow regime. The northeasterly flow
will lift from the warm western Atlantic, over the "cool" wedge
that established itself over the Southeast. This will likely
spread an area of showers inland, moving from northeast to
southwest through the day. It is unlikely that these showers will
make it too far west of a line from Tallahassee to Albany.

Expect afternoon highs on Friday to range from around 90 degrees
along the Florida Panhandle and across southeast Alabama, to the
middle 80s across much of Georgia. On Saturday, the middle 80s
will be more common area-wide.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The long term period begins with the upper low off the Florida
east coast being pulled northward ahead of a deepening eastern
CONUS trough. Drier conditions will return by Sunday afternoon
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. With the main upper
level forcing transitioning from the Ohio Valley to New England
Mon-Tue, it continues to appear that the next cold front will
stall near or just north of the forecast area on Tuesday.
Thereafter, with the boundary in place and low level flow shifting
to easterly, a period of moist and unsettled conditions will
likely return.

[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions and light winds should
prevail at the terminals through much of the upcoming TAF period,
except for the possibility of a brief period of MVFR visibility
after 08Z. This is most likely at VLD, but possible at the other
terminals as well.


Relatively light winds today will shift northeast and increase to
near cautionary levels Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter,
the pressure pattern will weaken again, lowering winds well below
headline levels.

.Fire Weather...

The influx of drier air into the region will peak this afternoon,
but relative humidities and other critical fire weather parameters
will not approach Red Flag levels during the next several days.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   92  68  89  68  84 /  10  10  40  30  40
Panama City   89  71  88  71  86 /  10  10  30  40  30
Dothan        90  66  88  67  85 /  10   0  40  30  10
Albany        89  67  86  67  84 /  10  10  40  20  40
Valdosta      91  68  86  66  83 /  10  10  40  20  50
Cross City    90  70  86  65  84 /  20  30  50  40  60
Apalachicola  89  71  87  71  83 /  10  10  30  50  40


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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