Area Forecast Discussion
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547
FXUS62 KTAE 011404
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1004 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

13Z MSAS and RAP objective analysis indicated a subtle surface
ridge extending from the Piedmont of North Carolina southwest to
central Georgia. Northeasterly low-level flow was associated with
this over much of the same region, and this coincided with an
area of stratus extending as far southwest as our Georgia
counties more reminiscent of autumn. This stratus should scatter
out later this morning, but there should be a weak convergence
zone and thetae gradient somewhere in the vicinity of the current
edge of the cloud shield by 18-20Z. Convection-allowing models are
consistent in developing isolated-scattered showers and storms in
our Georgia zones this afternoon. This is where we have focused
our >20% PoPs today. To the west and south - in southeast Alabama
and our Florida zones - boundary layer average mixing ratios are
considerably lower, indicating that dewpoints are likely to mix
out into the low-mid 60s this afternoon. The drier low level air
should inhibit most convective development, so we have indicated a
mainly dry forecast in these areas. High temperatures should be in
the low-mid 90s for the most part, although we tweaked the highs
down slightly in the northeast part of our Georgia counties where
cloud cover may hang on later into the day.

&&

.Prev Discussion [342 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

A combination of upper level support from an eastern U.S.
mid/upper trough will combine with a weak front, and disturbed
sea breeze circulations to yield near, to slightly above average
rain chances through the weekend. Afternoon highs will be near
average (lower 90s) each afternoon, with overnight lows in the
lower 70s.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The aforementioned positive-tilt 500 mb trough will continue to
stretch from TN to the Northwest Gulf of Mexico, bringing moist
southwest flow aloft over our forecast area through Tuesday. This,
along with aforementioned remnant frontal system across our
region will contribute to above-climo rain chances (50-60% PoPs).
By Wednesday and Thursday, however, a deep layer ridge will build
across the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast, reducing (somewhat) the
deep layer moisture and synoptic scale forcing. This will mark a
return to a more typical late summertime pattern, with near-climo
PoPs (30-40%) and thunderstorms driven primarily by the sea/land
breeze circulation and other mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures
will be near climatology, with highs in the lower to mid 90s and
lows in the 70s.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period but
there is a chance of VCTS at ABY, and VLD late this afternoon.
There are no major CIGS/VIS concerns but any terminals that receive
TS could briefly drop down to MVFR/IFR.


.Marine...

Low wind and sea conditions will prevail for the next several days
under a weak surface pressure pattern.


.Fire Weather...

Summer-like conditions and increasing rain chances will result in no
fire weather concerns over the next few days.


.Hydrology...

With our area rivers below bank full stage and seasonable rainfall
totals in the forecast, no flooding is expected through the next
week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  71  93  72  92 /  10  10  50  20  50
Panama City   89  75  89  75  88 /  10  10  40  30  40
Dothan        93  71  91  71  90 /  20  10  40  20  60
Albany        91  71  91  72  90 /  40  30  40  20  50
Valdosta      96  70  95  71  95 /  20  20  50  30  60
Cross City    92  69  93  71  92 /  10  10  30  30  40
Apalachicola  89  72  88  74  89 /  10  10  30  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GOULD/DOBBS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD/DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...MOORE






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