Area Forecast Discussion
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195
FXUS62 KTAE 311836
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
236 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Although we are finally starting to see some convection developing
along the sea breeze front over the FL panhandle and a few showers
and storms beginning to flare up across parts of SW and SC GA,
elsewhere across the region, the CU field has been fairly
unimpressive thus far. Believe this is due to the rapid influx of
mid-upper level dry air that is advecting in rapidly from the east.
Therefore, did lower PoPs across the board to generally 20-30% for
this afternoon, and mainly 20%s for tonight (except for a small
sliver of 30-40% PoPs across far eastern portions of the CWA this
evening). As for low temps, yet another warm and humid night is
expected across the CWA, with minimums mainly in the mid to upper
70s.


.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Upper level ridging will remain in place for the period. With weak
flow and no large scale forcing, sea breeze processes will dominate
bringing near normal chances of rain. PoPs will be in the 20-40
range with higher values to the east. With high pressure in place,
max temps will be in the mid 90s and lows in the lower 70s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The start of the period will be dominated by a ridge in place over
the Southeast with normal chances of rain. Tropical moisture off the
east coast of Florida will bring higher rain chances starting
Thursday. Highs will be in the low 90s and lows will be in the low
70s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday] VFR conditions are expected throughout the
forecast period. Light winds will be mostly southerly. A shower or
thunderstorm is not completely out of the question especially at ECP.

&&

.Marine...

Winds will be from the southeast at 5 to 10 knots. Wave heights will
be 2 to 4 feet tonight becoming 1 to 3 feet for the rest of the
period. Surf heights will generally be 1 to 2 feet with rip currents
possible.


&&

.Fire Weather...

Afternoon Relative humidities will remain above critical levels for
the next several days with no fire weather concerns in the
foreseeable future.

&&

.Hydrology...

River levels will remain at their below normal levels into next
week as widespread rainfall is not anticipated.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  94  73  94  72 /  20  30  20  40  20
Panama City   78  90  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  30  20
Dothan        72  95  72  95  72 /  20  20  10  30  20
Albany        72  96  72  95  72 /  20  20  20  40  20
Valdosta      73  94  71  94  70 /  40  40  20  40  20
Cross City    74  92  72  93  71 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  77  90  76  90  75 /  20  20  10  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coastal
     Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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