Area Forecast Discussion
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297 FXUS62 KTAE 121039 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 637 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]... The 11 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak ridge along the FL-GA and FL-AL borders, a cold front from western NC to northern LA, and a 1014 mb low pressure system centered off the southeast FL coast. Deep moist convection with this system was poorly organized, and tropical development is unlikely today as it moves west around 10 MPH across South FL. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to stall just north and west of our forecast area later this afternoon. With light southeast winds in the lower troposphere, the sea breeze will be slow to move inland. The ensemble of Convection Allowing Models (ECAM), which performed well on Thursday under a similar synoptic scale environment, forecast only a limited amount of deep moist convection along the sea breeze fronts this afternoon. However, late this afternoon, several of the CAMs forecast scattered storms near and north of a line from Dothan to Tifton, in association with the approaching frontal system. Our PoP, a blend of MOS, the previous forecast, and ECAM, ranges from 20% in FL to 30% in GA & AL. There`s nothing in the NWP guidance (in terms of CAPE or bulk shear values) that would suggest a significant risk for severe storms. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s. .Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... Although weak upper ridging will continue locally, we will see a gradual increase in deep local moisture through the weekend. The stalled front to our north will get slowly nudged to the south on Saturday becoming quasi-stationary across our CWA on Sunday. Meanwhile, a tropical wave well south of our coastal waters is forecast to stay on a westward coarse heading toward Texas. Our position with respect to this system, the frontal boundary, and return of deep moisture, all lead to increasing PoPs into the chance/good chance range the next few days. Max temps will be in the lower 90s inland areas Saturday and then around 90 for Sunday. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... The elongated east-west oriented ridge axis will still be in place at the start of the period. However, it will begin to break down early in the work week as a long wave trough begins to amplify into the Southeast. This trough will help push the front currently draped across the Ohio Valley toward the Gulf Coast. It is still uncertain just how far south the front will make it before stalling. There appears to be model consensus that there will be enough energy upstream in the long wave trough to induce weak waves on the front that will help inhibit its southward progress. The proximity of the boundary through much of the period will result in unsettled conditions with above normal PoPs for the most part. Max temps will correspondingly be generally below normal from Monday onward. && .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Saturday] We expect generally VFR conditions today, outside of isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and evening. Winds will be light and rather variable (6 KT or less), except for a south wind near 10 KT developing this afternoon at KECP. The PoP is rather low this afternoon (generally 20-40%), so no TSRA is currently forecast at any of the terminals, but adjustments to this may be made on the 18z TAF package when daytime convective trends can become better established.
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&& .Marine... A very weak pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place. This will keep winds and seas well below any headline criteria. && .Fire Weather... Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least this weekend. && .Hydrology... Rainfall totals over the next few days are expected to be below normal and not have an impact on area rivers. However, QPF is expected to increase next work week. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 94 73 93 72 91 / 20 20 40 30 50 Panama City 90 77 90 76 87 / 20 20 40 30 50 Dothan 94 73 92 72 90 / 20 20 50 30 50 Albany 95 73 92 72 91 / 30 30 50 30 50 Valdosta 94 72 92 71 90 / 20 20 40 30 50 Cross City 93 71 93 70 89 / 20 20 40 30 40 Apalachicola 90 76 89 77 87 / 20 20 30 30 40 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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