Area Forecast Discussion
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751 FXUS62 KTAE 180102 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 902 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Very few changes were made to the existing forecast - a dry night with mostly clear skies, other than perhaps some high cirrus arriving later in the night. Lows should be below normal for this time of year, and the low at Tallahassee could actually approach a record low for the date (July 18th) which is only 65 degrees. Forecast lows are mainly in the 64-67 degree range except near the coastline. The air mass remains quite dry with the 00Z Tallahassee sounding recording a PWAT of just 1.01". The dewpoint at TLH today actually got down to 55 degrees at 6 PM. Dewpoints that low have only been observed on 14 hourly observations at TLH in July in the past 20 years - or just 0.09% of the total.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Saturday] But for a brief period of MVFR VIS possible around dawn at KVLD, VFR VIS & CIGS will continue into at least Friday evening. Surface winds will be light and rather variable (mostly 6 KT or less), except for an onshore sea breeze near 10 KT at KECP mid to late Friday afternoon.
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&& .Prev Discussion [245 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... During this period, we will see a gradual return to more typical summer rain chances and modest increases in humidity. However, Friday will still be a dry day for most of us. The front currently stalled across the northern Gulf of Mexico will edge northward allowing some return flow across the central Gulf Coast. Isolate PoPs are included across our far northwestern zones. We also could see some isolated convection make it into our South Central GA zones in an area where the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes collide. The reduced convective coverage will allow temps to rise to above normal levels, mainly mid 90s. By Saturday, return flow will be well underway and PW will be back to climatological norms, if not above. PoPs will increase to 30 southeast to 60s northwest. Max temps will be near normal. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... The long term period will be fairly active for our CWA as long wave troughing continues its grip on the Eastern CONUS with ridging in the West. This typically features rain chances that are above climatology for our CWA so went with blend of higher HPC guidance with GFS/Euro which yields rain chances near 70 percent each day in the period. With higher chances for rain, temperatures are expected to be below climatology as well with most locations likely reaching AOB 90. .Marine... A weak pressure pattern typical for the summer months will be in place into next week. This will result in light winds and low seas for the next several days. .Fire Weather... Another relatively dry day is expected tomorrow, though RH values will likely remain above critical levels. Thereafter, moisture levels will increase to seasonal norms or above, as will rain chances. .Hydrology... Scattered storms will return to the forecast by the weekend, but widespread heavy rainfall is not expected at this time. While some storms may result in some localized rises on smaller area creeks and streams, the main stem river will continue to remain below flood stages.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 66 95 71 92 71 / 0 10 10 40 30 Panama City 72 90 75 88 74 / 0 10 10 40 30 Dothan 65 92 70 90 71 / 0 10 20 50 30 Albany 67 94 71 91 71 / 0 20 20 50 30 Valdosta 67 96 70 94 70 / 0 20 20 40 30 Cross City 67 93 70 92 71 / 0 10 10 30 20 Apalachicola 71 89 73 88 73 / 0 10 10 30 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL/DOBBS AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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