Area Forecast Discussion
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725 FXUS62 KTAE 252356 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 756 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Low level northeasterly flow will continue overnight, keeping low clouds in the forecast for most areas. Still expect to see low temperatures ranging from the mid 60s over eastern areas, to the lower 60s for the western zones. Only minor tweaks have been made to the sky cover grids this evening, with no significant changes planned.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Friday] We finally saw ceilings lift to VFR over ABY at 00Z and ceilings have gradually lifted all day at the other terminals as well. This trend should be about over as we expect ceilings to fall back through the MVFR ranges once again tonight as the persistent northeast flow keeps low stratus in the forecast. We also expect a return to IFR ceilings for a few hours at the GA terminals Friday morning. Improvement through the day will be slow once again, but not as slow as today. We do expect all terminals to lift to VFR ceilings during the afternoon. The inverted trough off the Southeast U.S. coast will drift closer to the area on Friday. This will return thunderstorm chances to the forecast. We have included them in the vicinity at TLH and VLD during the late afternoon.
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&& .Prev Discussion [242 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... Expect one more day of relatively cool northeasterly flow on Friday with the trough of low pressure still along the eastern seaboard and high pressure nosing down the lee of the Appalachians. Primary forecast challenge for Friday will be high temperatures once again. If the sun is able to break out, temperatures will likely reach the mid to upper 80s. However, model soundings indicate that the low-level northeasterly flow will be topped by some weak isentropic lift on Friday, which may help to hold the clouds in through much of the day. Have leaned towards this scenario and have max temps several degrees below guidance (and even this could still be a bit warm). By later in the day, expect to see an increase in showers over the southeastern Big Bend as an inverted trough crosses the peninsula towards the west. Deep moisture will continue to increase Friday night into Saturday as the surface trough moves across the coastal waters. Expect the best rain chances to be over the water Friday night, with showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading inland during the day on Saturday into Saturday night. Locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out, given the high precipitable waters values. However, at this time, most of the guidance keeps the heaviest rain offshore through Saturday night, with totals around 1 inch along the Panhandle coast and lower amounts inland. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... Deep moisture will be in place for Sunday and Monday as the inverted surface trough interacts with an upper trough over the central Gulf Coast. This should result in elevated rain chances for these two days, with locally heavy rainfall possible given precipitable water values above 2 inches. Things should begin to dry out by late Monday or Tuesday as the upper energy shears out to the northeast. The global guidance differs in the timing on when the deep moisture moves out, so have left some low end PoPs in the forecast for much of the forecast period. With the tropical airmass for the first part of the period and no significant airmass change expected behind this system, expect temperatures to run near or just above normal into the middle of next week. .Marine... Northeasterly flow will continue into Friday night before shifting to easterly on Saturday and the southeasterly Saturday night into Sunday. Conditions will likely remain at or near exercise caution levels through the weekend before winds weaken early next week. .Fire Weather... Red flag criteria will not be a concern over the next several days as moisture levels and rain chances increase. Daytime mixing heights will be on the low side and this will help to keep dispersion indices below 30 in most cases both Friday and Saturday. .Hydrology... The above mentioned period of wet weather (Friday through at least Sunday) could produce, on average, 1 to 2 inches of rain across north Florida. Elsewhere, averages on the order of an inch or less are more likely. These amounts are not expected to result in any river flooding due to the widespread low flows. Depending on whether the heavy rain persists through Tuesday, which is uncertain, there may be some minor river flooding issues.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 63 83 71 85 71 / 10 30 40 60 40 Panama City 65 84 72 84 73 / 0 20 40 60 50 Dothan 62 81 67 83 69 / 0 10 20 50 40 Albany 63 79 68 84 70 / 10 10 30 40 40 Valdosta 65 81 70 86 70 / 10 40 40 50 40 Cross City 68 84 71 86 70 / 10 60 60 60 40 Apalachicola 69 82 74 83 74 / 10 30 50 60 50
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/CAMP

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