Area Forecast Discussion
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353 FXUS62 KTAE 202039 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 439 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE COUNTY WARNING AREA NEAR ALBANY AND EXTENDING WEST, JUST NORTH OF DOTHAN. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY MID 60S DEW POINTS AND DECENT INSOLATION IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THIS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. AS WE MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AND CALM WINDS, PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND BOTTOM OUT AROUND THE LOW TO MID 60S. .SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]... THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE REMNANT SHORT WAVE REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW TRACK WITH THE EURO GENERALLY FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS IN BRINGING IT EASTWARD. CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SEA BREEZE. POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-40% RANGE. POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, POPS WILL RANGE FROM CATEGORICAL (80%) NORTH TO CHANCE (30-40%) ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES NORTH OF A DOTHAN TO MOULTRIE LINE WHERE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND FREQUENT RAIN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY. .LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]... MONDAY`S POPS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANCE ONCE WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE LOW. FOR THE TIME BEING, POPS REFLECT THE LOW CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS EAST DROPPING OFF TO ABOUT 40% FROM PANAMA CITY WEST. A BRIEF LULL IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AT UPPER LEVELS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK INCREASING POPS ONCE AGAIN.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] MOST TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR WITH CEILINGS AROUND 4-5K FEET. DHN AND ABY COULD SEE VCSH/VCTS LATER THIS EVENING. LARGEST CONCERN IS HOW LOW CIGS/VIS WILL DROP TONIGHT. CURRENTLY ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER BEGINNING AROUND THE 03-06Z TIME PERIOD. FROM 06Z- 12Z ALL TERMINALS ARE LIKELY TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AS VIS IS FORECASTED TO DROP TO NEAR 1 MILE AND CIGS LOWER AT MOST TERMINALS TO NEAR 1000 FEET. AFTER 14Z DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD HELP INCREASE VISIBILITIES, BUT LOW CIGS COULD STILL PERSIST THROUGH 16Z.
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&& .MARINE...
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A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF RATHER LOW WINDS AND SEAS EVEN AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AHEAD OF WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. BY MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOST OF THE INCREASE WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGH.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MORE ORGANIZED CHANCES OF RAIN BY SUNDAY. RAINFALL THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS NEARING 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SOME RIVER POINTS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO APPROACH OR EXCEED ACTION STAGE.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 64 86 64 81 62 / 20 30 30 60 60 PANAMA CITY 66 76 64 75 64 / 20 20 20 40 60 DOTHAN 63 81 62 74 60 / 40 30 50 70 70 ALBANY 62 81 59 72 59 / 30 20 50 80 80 VALDOSTA 64 85 62 81 61 / 30 30 30 70 60 CROSS CITY 62 85 62 82 61 / 10 20 10 40 40 APALACHICOLA 66 78 65 77 65 / 10 10 20 30 50
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN/DOBBS SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...HARRIGAN/DOBBS MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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