Area Forecast Discussion
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708 FXUS62 KTAE 100055 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 855 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2014 .Near Term [Rest of Tonight]...
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Forecast appears to be on track for the remainder of tonight. Expect winds to go calm as a surface ridge slides in from the east this evening. A dry air mass in place and optimal radiational cooling will allow lows to dip into the low to mid 40s tonight.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Friday] VFR conditions expected at all terminals. Northerly winds will become southerly by Thursday morning.
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&& .Prev Discussion [303 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... The flow aloft is forecast to remain zonal through the rest of the work week. At the surface, high pressure will slide eastward and park over the Western Atlantic. This combination will keep the weather dry with temperatures near seasonal normals (highs in upper 70s/lower 80s and lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s). .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... The beginning of the period starts with zonal flow aloft, transitioning into a ridging pattern early Sunday keeping conditions benign. The next chance for rain will take place Monday afternoon as the next upper trough approaches, with PoPs remaining in the 30s and 40s through Wednesday morning. Although the GFS and Euro handle the upper level patterns around this time differently, they generally agree on the timing of rain and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain average for the time of year until Tuesday when highs will drop about 10 degrees across the area into the lower 70s. .Marine... Winds and seas will continue diminish overnight as high pressure builds over the waters. With high pressure forecast to remain in place, winds and seas will remain low through the weekend. .Fire Weather... Drier conditions will be in place on Thursday with relative humidities in the afternoon dropping into the low to mid 20 percent range. While the duration criteria will be met in Florida, the ERC values are quite low (with the exception of Leon/Wakulla). Similarly, in GA/AL relative humidity values will approach/exceed critical levels, but other required criteria will not be met. The airmass will slowly moisten on Friday and throughout the weekend, thus red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. .Hydrology... Crests are in progress or will happen shortly across Southern Alabama within the upper portions of the Choctawhatchee and Pea River basins. Ariton and Newton both reached moderate flood levels in this event and will drop into the minor flood category tonight. Geneva should crest on Thursday morning and will be very near flood stage. Further downstream at Caryville and Bruce, the Choctawhatchee will continue rising with Caryville reaching its crest on Friday evening just below moderate flood levels. It will still take a few days for the crest wave to reach Bruce. Bruce should reach flood stage by Friday evening. The latest forecast shows an eventual crest near 16.3 feet, which is just below major flood stage. This forecast may change, depending on further measurement of routed flows from upstream sources, so there is potential for Bruce to eventually crest just above major flood stage by Tuesday of next week. The Chattahoochee/Apalachicola River continues to rise downstream of Columbia Lock/Dam, while releases upstream of these points have largely stabilized. Inflows into Lake Seminole continue to require releases nearing 10kcfs from Woodruff, which places the Apalachicola just downstream of the dam very near flood stage. These releases also will result in Blountstown cresting as high as 23 feet by Friday night. The latest release schedule does indicate that flows should begin to stabilize around the 10kcfs level out of Woodruff, thus using current release schedules from Woodruff, moderate flooding is not anticipated at Blountstown. The Flint will continue rising downstream of Albany. Newton should stay below flood stage, but further downstream at Bainbridge, the combination of high flows off the Ichawaynochaway and routed flows from the Flint should result in minor flood levels there by Friday. In the Ochlockonee River, Thomasville and Concord have been rising fast today with a little more water in the system than anticipated. However, there still doesn`t appear to be quite enough to result in flood stages being met above Lake Talquin - though Concord will be close. Elsewhere, the Withlacoochee at Valdosta appears to be cresting a foot below flood stage. For the Suwannee, while high flows are coming in from the Upper Suwannee, inflows from the Alapaha and Withlacoochee will not be sufficient to result in any flooding along the Middle Suwannee River points through the first of the week.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 43 78 43 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 48 74 54 77 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 44 78 48 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 43 79 46 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 43 78 47 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 44 79 47 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 48 72 52 74 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...WALSH/WOOL SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP/HELLER AVIATION...WALSH/HARRIGAN MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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