Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 301452
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
952 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2013
.NEAR TERM [Today]...
Update: No updates necessary. Previous discussion below.
High pressure centered over New England and extending down into the
Mid Atlantic States will move off into the Atlantic today resulting
in the low level flow across the region shifting to include more of
an easterly component. This will allow for more Atlantic moisture to
move back into the region this afternoon. With the increase low
level moisture, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies by afternoon,
especially east of a Tallahassee to Albany line. There`s also a
low chance of a few sprinkles, mainly along and east of I-75 in
the afternoon as depicted in a few of the local WRF runs. With a
cool airmass still in place and cloud cover increasing during the
afternoon, expect temperatures to remain below normal with highs
generally in the upper 50s to around 60 in Srn Al/Ga and in the
mid 60s in much of North Florida.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
A broad, flat 500 mb ridge over the Gulf Coast region will give way
to a fast, eastward-moving trough Sunday Night and Monday. An
ill-defined cold front will accompany this trough, though the GFS
and ECMWF differ on the timing of this system. While there appears
to be fair Q-G forcing and mid-upper level moisture with this
trough, boundary layer moisture, convergence, and Lifted Index
values will be poor. MOS PoPs from the various models are not in
good agreement so we averaged the forecasts and "broad brushed" our
entire forecast area in a 30% PoP for Monday. Our QPF is under a
tenth of an inch. Thunderstorms are highly unlikely over land.
Overnight temperatures will be near average Sunday with lows in the
40s, then above average Monday with lows near 50. Highs will be near
to slightly above average Sunday and Monday, ranging from the mid
60s in our northern zones to lower 70s south.
.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The longwave trough over SE region on Mon exits ewd on Mon night
with upstream ridge and rising heights overspreading region with
axis overhead Wed aftn. It lingers into Thurs before exiting Ewd in
response to full latitude trough developing over Plains with
increasing SWLY steering flow shifting Ewd. This trough then lifts
Newd thru Fri taking much of dynamics with it. Atlc surface low
moves Newd into open waters Mon night into early Tues while another
low moves from Plains to across Great Lakes thru period dragging a
trailing cold front ESE reaching Cntrl AL by end of period with Atlc
high moving increasing Ewd. All this places local area increasingly
in warm sector but moisture will remain limited.
Generally isold to wdly sct light pops Sat night Thurs then wdly
sct-lo sct Thurs night and wdly sct-sct pops Fri and Fri night.
Temps will rise thru the period to above climo. Expect Inland lows
generally in mid 40s Mon night, low 40s Tues night, mid to upper 40s
Wed night rising to low to mid 50s Thurs night and mid 50s Fri
night. Inland highs Tues mid to upper 60s, 67 to 74 Wed and 70 to 75
Thurs and mid 70s on Fri.
.AVIATION [Beginning 15Z Saturday]...
Generally VFR conditions are expected this afternoon, with a low
VFR cloud deck east of ABY and TLH. MVFR ceilings will likely
trickle as far west as VLD in the next hour or so when they will
be in and out of VFR. Expect widespread MVFR ceilings later
tonight, possibly with some patchy fog mixed in.
This morning/early afternoon is likely to be the last day of
"Exercise Caution" conditions over the next several days, as a
high pressure ridge settles across the region Sunday afternoon and
greatly reduces the pressure gradient. The weak cold front
scheduled to pass through the marine area on Monday and Monday
Night will have very little impact on winds and seas.
With low level moisture increasing in easterly flow, no fire
weather conditions are expected today. With no significant
intrusion of drier air expected through much of the upcoming week,
there are no fire weather concerns expected through next week.
QPF amounts through Thursday are expected to be less than 0.25
inches, so we do not expect any major hydro issues for the upcoming
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 66 45 69 50 68 / 0 0 10 20 30
Panama City 67 49 67 55 68 / 0 0 0 20 30
Dothan 61 42 65 49 67 / 0 10 10 30 30
Albany 60 41 64 46 65 / 10 10 10 20 30
Valdosta 62 45 67 50 66 / 10 0 10 20 30
Cross City 69 48 73 52 70 / 10 10 0 20 30
Apalachicola 69 49 68 55 68 / 0 10 0 20 30