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070
FXUS62 KTAE 120032
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
835 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2013

.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
As expected, the scattered showers and thunderstorms that developed
this afternoon have already dissipated. Updated zones have already
been sent. Lows will drop into the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
High pressure aloft and winds from the west at the surface will keep
away rain chances Wednesday and let highs warm up to the upper 90s
inland to low 90s along the immediate coast. Lows will be in the low
to mid 70s. Thursday an upper level short wave trof swings through
the eastern side of the upper level ridge. This shortwave is
enhancing a surface low over the northern Plains today and models
have this area of low pressure gaining some frontal qualities to it
as it heads to the east coast by Thursday. While most of the models
keep the convection to our north, there are some chances of rain for
our northeastern and eastern counties- about 20% Thursday afternoon
and 30% Thursday night. With only slight chances of rain focused in
the late afternoon, temps are expected to warm to the upper 90s
again Thursday. Lows will be in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday through Tuesday]...
Continuing from the short term, we have a frontal system possibly
reaching our area around Thursday night and exiting to the southeast
by overnight Friday night. Rain chances will stay low once again
thanks to high pressure aloft and at the surface, although some
convection from the sea-breeze may be possible. Monday through
Tuesday rain chances increase again as another shortwave moves
through with a similar setup to the Thursday-Friday rain chances.
Highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s are expected through the period.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]...
Shower activity will pick up after 9Z for most sites. By 16Z rain
will be widespread and MVFR/IFR cigs are expected. As Tropical Storm
Andrea approaches winds will intensify throughout the afternoon.
Winds could gust around 20 kts for the central and western sites and
around 30 kts at VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds will remain below advisory levels through the
period, but may approach cautionary levels briefly Thursday night
through Friday with a frontal system approaching from the north.
Otherwise, winds and waves will be at typical low summertime levels
through the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Although the airmass will be a bit drier today and Wednesday than in
recent days, Red Flag conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
After the recent heavy rainfall across the area, two river points
over our Hydrological Area of Responsibility did manage to climb
into Action Stage. These were the Shoal River at Mossy Head FL, and
the Little River at Hahira GA. As of early this morning however,
only Hahira remains above action stage, and with a generally Hot and
Dry week ahead, all area rivers and streams should be in a receding
trend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  97  72  97  75 / 10  10  10  20  20
Panama City   76  92  76  91  77 / 10  10  10  10  10
Dothan        74  98  75  99  75 / 10  10  10  10  20
Albany        73  99  74  99  73 / 10  10  10  20  30
Valdosta      70 100  72  98  73 / 10  10  10  20  30
Cross City    70  95  72  94  73 / 10  10  10  20  10
Apalachicola  74  91  75  90  77 / 10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Barry
Aviation...Walsh/Block
Fire Weather...Fournier
Short Term/Long Term/Marine...Moore
Hydrology...Gould