Area Forecast Discussion
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937 FXUS62 KTAE 241901 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 301 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2014 .Near Term [Through tonight]...
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An upper level low sits over the Carolinas today as high pressure is at the sfc over the southeast. High pressure will bring northeasterly winds with cooler drier air. With a tighter pressure gradient today winds will be gusty at times with max gusts of 20 mph expected this afternoon. Cloud cover could linger throughout the day in parts of southwest GA. Highs will be in the low 80s this afternoon. .Short Term [Wednesday through Through Friday night]... A trough of low pressure along the southeast coast, along with high pressure over New England, will keep northeasterly flow in place across the forecast area through the end of the work week. Expect to see a continuation of the morning clouds and afternoon sun with high temperatures around seasonal normals. Rain chances will begin to increase on Friday as the surface trough (enhanced by a weak tropical wave) begins to slide to the east. Best rain chances on Friday will be over the southeastern third of the forecast area. however, isolated showers will be possible elsewhere as well. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... A weak inverted trough will move across the northeastern Gulf Coast during the weekend. This will generate showers and isolated thunderstorms as deep layer moisture increases. Initially, best rain chances will be across the southern half of the forecast area. However, by late in the weekend a developing trough over the Southern Plains will pull the moisture further north, with enhanced rain chances across the remainder of the area. With precipitable water values possibly exceeding 2 inches, there will be some potential for locally heavy rainfall. Into Monday and Tuesday, the global guidance diverges with the ECMWF cutting off an upper low over the Arklatex and pushing a strong front into the Deep South. The GFS is much weaker and more progressive with its evolution. At this time, have leaned more towards the wetter ECMWF solution for Monday and Monday night. With the approach of the inverted trough and it`s more tropical airmass, temperatures will likely be a bit above normal for the weekend into early next week (especially for min temps).
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Thursday] Ceilings are expected to scatter out this afternoon with the exception of perhaps VLD and ABY. Northeast winds will be gusting up to 20kts in the afternoon. MVFR cigs are expected to develop overnight. Isolated IFR cigs are possible just before sunrise. Ceilings are expected to scatter out around mid- morning.
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&& .Marine...
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Northeasterly flow will continue into Saturday with a trough of low pressure situated off the northeast Florida coast. Nocturnal surges will push winds to near exercise caution levels each of the next few nights. Winds will become more easterly to southeasterly late in the weekend into early next week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Gradually increasing moisture levels over the next several days will preclude red flag criteria from being reached.
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&& .Hydrology...
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On Friday we`ll begin to transition to a wet pattern which could bring 2+ inches of rain, over a few day stretch, to the region. Specifically, north Florida appears as though it will be affected most by the upcoming rain. However, with most rivers across Florida in low-flow stages, seven day rainfall amounts should not result in flooding levels along local rivers.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 63 85 67 87 72 / 0 10 10 30 30 Panama City 67 85 70 88 73 / 10 0 10 20 30 Dothan 62 82 65 86 68 / 0 0 10 20 20 Albany 62 83 67 86 70 / 0 0 10 20 20 Valdosta 63 83 67 87 70 / 10 10 10 40 30 Cross City 66 85 70 87 71 / 10 20 20 50 40 Apalachicola 69 84 71 86 75 / 10 10 10 30 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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