Area Forecast Discussion
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206 FXUS62 KTAE 112020 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 420 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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THIS AFTERNOON, THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM VALDOSTA TO PANAMA CITY, THEN ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS FRONT HAS HAD LITTLE TO NO MOVEMENT ALL MORNING. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. .SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET INTERACTS WITH A WEAKENING BUT NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH DAY OF RATHER HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. .LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]... THE LONG TERM PATTERN LOOKS UNSETTLED AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE...TYPICAL OF EL NINO. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DAYS WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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IN GENERAL...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MOST NOTABLE EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN A NOCTURNAL EASTERLY SURGE COULD BRING CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST GULF.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED...HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A WETTING RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 60. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE LOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO LOW TRANSPORT WINDS AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH AVERAGE TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...HIGHEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH CONVECTION...LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. THESE AMOUNTS MAY FORCE SOME RIVERS INTO ACTION OR EVEN MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 66 81 68 80 69 / 30 70 50 60 40 PANAMA CITY 68 77 70 77 70 / 30 70 50 50 30 DOTHAN 64 78 65 78 66 / 20 70 60 70 50 ALBANY 62 79 65 80 65 / 20 70 60 70 50 VALDOSTA 65 78 66 81 67 / 40 70 50 70 50 CROSS CITY 66 84 68 83 67 / 20 60 40 60 50 APALACHICOLA 69 80 72 79 72 / 30 60 40 50 30
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...WESTON HYDROLOGY...DVD

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