Area Forecast Discussion
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617 FXUS62 KTAE 230551 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 151 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A mid-upper level low was centered near New Orleans early this morning, and was slowly retrograding west. This has enabled the 500mb heights on the TAE sounding to rise about 20m in the past 24 hours (through 00Z). The slowly rising heights and negative vorticity advection aloft are expected to aid in suppressing convective activity today. Additionally, a channel of drier mid-level air has pushed into parts of the area, to the east of the mid-upper level low, which is confirmed by the 00Z TAE sounding and GOES blended total PWAT product. Despite these negative factors for convection, both convection-allowing and global models do show some development by this afternoon - particularly along the sea breeze and near a favored convergence zone near the Apalachicola River. However, model forecast QPF is quite low, so any showers or storms that do develop should be quite isolated. Therefore, PoPs are well below climatology (15-25% range) but we have still indicated the possibility of a few showers and storms in the forecast. High temperatures should be in the mid-90s with plenty of sunshine. .Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... The GFS and ECMWF finally dissipate the cutoff low to our west tonight, but then carve out a long wave trough over much of the eastern CONUS over the later part of the work week. The 00 UTC GFS solution predicts somewhat greater deep layer moisture than the 12 UTC ECMWF, and their corresponding MOS PoPs reflect this difference. Our forecast is blend of the two solutions, with a little more weight toward the GFS (given that this is climatologically our wettest time of year). The resulting PoP forecast is in the 30-40% range, which is still slightly below climo values. With below-climo PoPs/clouds comes warm high temperatures, with highs in the mid 90s (upper 80s beaches). As one might expect this time of year, there doesn`t appear to be a significant threat for organized severe storms due primarily to weak winds aloft. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... The region will be dominated by high pressure at the sfc and an upper level ridge through Sunday. As a result, expect only a slight chance for afternoon/evening rain and thunderstorms. Late Monday an upper level trough moves in and increases afternoon/evening precip chances for the remainder of the forecast period. A stationary boundary is expected to linger over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. In addition to the increased rain chance expect abundant cloud cover. Expect lows in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 90s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Thursday] VFR conditions initially may be interrupted by some patchy fog around sunrise, with MVFR VIS possible. The patchy fog appears most likely at DHN, ABY, and TLH, although any of the terminals could be affected briefly. After that, VFR conditions will prevail. Some isolated thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon, but coverage was too low to mention in the TAFs...except at TLH where VCTS was included after 19Z.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds will generally be from the southwest around 10 KT through this weekend, except for an increase to 10 to 15 KT near the coast during the late afternoon and evening hours from strong daytime heating. Significant wave heights will be mainly 2 ft or less.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red flag conditions are not expected this week despite some slightly drier weather (in terms of rain chances).
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&& .Hydrology...
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Given the expectation of only isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Friday, it`s unlikely that flash flooding or river flooding will occur.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 94 73 93 74 93 / 30 0 30 20 30 Panama City 90 76 89 77 89 / 20 0 30 20 30 Dothan 93 72 92 73 93 / 20 0 40 20 30 Albany 95 73 93 74 93 / 20 10 40 20 30 Valdosta 97 72 95 73 93 / 20 0 30 20 40 Cross City 94 73 92 72 92 / 30 0 30 20 30 Apalachicola 89 77 89 77 88 / 20 0 30 20 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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