Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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792 FXUS62 KTAE 221949 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 349 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH A +PV ANOMALY WILL SLIDE EWARD ACROSS THE SRN STATES AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS UPPER LEVEL ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING LIFT OVER AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL LA-MS BORDER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SWWARD FROM THIS LOW OUT ALONG THE TX COASTLINE AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWARD FROM IT ACROSS N FL. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT LIES OUT OVER THE NRN GULF WATERS ABOUT 60 NM OFFSHORE. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, WE WILL SEE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH ABOUT 40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT SOME TO ALLOW DAYTIME HEATING, WE MAY GET JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. .SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]... THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DRAGGING A SWWD TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH IT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. POPS WILL BE CHANCE TO LIKELY IN THE MORNING TAPERING DOWN TO CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL SERVE TO BRING COOLER TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER GA ZONES. .LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE MOVING EAST WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY AS THE AXIS TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH WITH HIGHS RANGING FORM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH. A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES MAY EVEN SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WILL SHOW THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST GEORGIA ZONES.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 18Z MONDAY] SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE AT ECP, TLH, AND VLD. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO BECOME EAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. WINDS AND SEAS MAY ELEVATE TO AT LEAST CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL AWAY FROM RED FLAG LEVELS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODEST RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH A FEW FORECAST POINTS IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REACHING ACTION STAGE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS WEEK.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 62 78 53 74 56 / 70 50 10 0 0 PANAMA CITY 62 73 52 70 59 / 60 40 10 0 0 DOTHAN 57 73 48 71 54 / 70 50 10 0 0 ALBANY 56 66 48 68 54 / 90 50 10 0 0 VALDOSTA 61 71 50 71 56 / 90 70 20 0 0 CROSS CITY 64 79 53 76 58 / 70 60 20 0 0 APALACHICOLA 64 79 55 70 59 / 60 40 10 0 0
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...DVD MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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