Area Forecast Discussion
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499 FXUS62 KTAE 250122 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 922 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Low clouds have returned quickly this evening on the northeasterly flow. Expect a cloudy night for most areas and have updated the grids for sky cover. Otherwise, the temperature and wind forecast appears on track, with no precipitation expected.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Friday] The MVFR stratus deck never did clear out of the VLD area today and has already surged westward to engulf ABY and TLH. It is possible that DHN and ECP will see periods of MVFR ceilings. However, they should be near the fringe of the deck. Further east, confidence is increasing that we will see the deck lower into the IFR category at VLD and possibly even ABY. The deck will slowly erode from southwest to northeast on Thursday between 14-18Z and may linger all day once again at VLD. No visibility restrictions are anticipated through the period.
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&& .Marine...
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Northeasterly flow will continue into Saturday with a trough of low pressure situated off the northeast Florida coast. Nocturnal surges will push winds to near exercise caution levels each of the next few nights and we have now included the headline for tonight as well. Winds will become more easterly to southeasterly late in the weekend into early next week.
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&& .Prev Discussion [301 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Wednesday through Through Friday night]... A trough of low pressure along the southeast coast, along with high pressure over New England, will keep northeasterly flow in place across the forecast area through the end of the work week. Expect to see a continuation of the morning clouds and afternoon sun with high temperatures around seasonal normals. Rain chances will begin to increase on Friday as the surface trough (enhanced by a weak tropical wave) begins to slide to the east. Best rain chances on Friday will be over the southeastern third of the forecast area. however, isolated showers will be possible elsewhere as well. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... A weak inverted trough will move across the northeastern Gulf Coast during the weekend. This will generate showers and isolated thunderstorms as deep layer moisture increases. Initially, best rain chances will be across the southern half of the forecast area. However, by late in the weekend a developing trough over the Southern Plains will pull the moisture further north, with enhanced rain chances across the remainder of the area. With precipitable water values possibly exceeding 2 inches, there will be some potential for locally heavy rainfall. Into Monday and Tuesday, the global guidance diverges with the ECMWF cutting off an upper low over the Arklatex and pushing a strong front into the Deep South. The GFS is much weaker and more progressive with its evolution. At this time, have leaned more towards the wetter ECMWF solution for Monday and Monday night. With the approach of the inverted trough and it`s more tropical airmass, temperatures will likely be a bit above normal for the weekend into early next week (especially for min temps). .Fire Weather... Gradually increasing moisture levels over the next several days will preclude red flag criteria from being reached. .Hydrology... On Friday we`ll begin to transition to a wet pattern which could bring 2+ inches of rain, over a few day stretch, to the region. Specifically, north Florida appears as though it will be affected most by the upcoming rain. However, with most rivers across Florida in low-flow stages, seven day rainfall amounts should not result in flooding levels along local rivers.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 60 85 67 87 72 / 10 10 10 30 30 Panama City 64 85 70 88 73 / 10 0 10 20 30 Dothan 58 82 65 86 68 / 10 0 10 20 20 Albany 59 83 67 86 70 / 10 0 10 20 20 Valdosta 59 83 67 87 70 / 10 10 10 40 30 Cross City 62 85 70 87 71 / 10 20 20 50 40 Apalachicola 63 84 71 86 75 / 10 10 10 30 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...CAMP/WOOL FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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