Area Forecast Discussion
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935 FXUS62 KTAE 191339 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 839 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The 8 am EST regional surface analysis showed a high pressure ridge near and along I-10 in north FL, and several of our normally colder inland sites had a light freeze. Temperatures will rebound to a few degrees above average this afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper 60s, light winds, and sunny skies.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Tuesday] Unlimited cigs/unrestricted Vis will continue into this evening, with SW winds 5 to 8 KT this afternoon. Some of the guidance was beginning to indicate a chance for lower cigs (MVFR) and/or light fog around KDHN and KECP around dawn Tuesday, and we will revisit this on our 1 pm EST TAF package.
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&& .Prev Discussion [357 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... The mid to upper level flow will be nearly zonal through the period. The exception will be Tuesday night with the approach and passage of an upper level disturbance and weak surface cold front. We expect little if any rain and for now will show only a slight PoP over portions of the Florida panhandle and adjacent waters. After one more night of below normal temps tonight, min and max temps will moderate to above seasonal levels. Tuesday will see highs around 70 to the lower 70s with only slightly cooler temps Wednesday after the passage of the cold front. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... A developing low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico combined with cool high pressure off to the northwest will make for another period of cold and wet conditions across the area Thursday night and Friday. At this time, it appears this system should clear the region by the weekend with a likely return to fair and seasonable conditions. .Marine... Winds will be light and seas low through mid week. Winds and seas will begin to increase by late Wednesday or Wednesday night as a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico approaches from the west. Cautionary conditions possibly reaching advisory levels will sweep across the local waters Thursday night into Friday. .Fire Weather... A rather dry airmass will be in place today across the region, with minimum humidity values in the mid to upper 20s. However, with very light winds and sufficient soil moisture conditions, no Red Flag conditions are anticipated. Low-level moisture will gradually increase the middle of the week. .Hydrology... Area rivers and streams should continue to slowly subside across the HSA for the next several days, with no significant rainfall on the horizon. The next chance for a widespread wetting rainfall across the basins is not expected until the very end of next week.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 68 35 72 47 69 / 0 0 10 10 10 Panama City 63 46 68 52 65 / 0 0 10 20 10 Dothan 66 42 69 46 66 / 0 0 10 10 10 Albany 66 38 69 48 67 / 0 0 10 10 10 Valdosta 67 37 72 48 69 / 0 0 10 10 10 Cross City 68 36 72 47 70 / 0 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 64 44 68 51 68 / 0 0 10 20 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...GOULD

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