Area Forecast Discussion
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641
FXUS62 KTAE 241506
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1006 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Regional surface analysis this morning shows a weak, stationary
boundary laid across the forecast area from Fitzgerald, GA south to
Perry, FL and southwestward out across our coastal waters. A
decaying warm frontal boundary intersects the first boundary along
the coastline and extends east-northeastward from near Cross City,
FL to Jacksonville, FL. Showers today are most active north and west
of these boundaries. As a +PV anomaly ejects through the upper level
trough over the eastern CONUS today, this boundary will push
eastward. Rain over our inland areas will decrease from west to east
through the afternoon, but showers will likely continue over our
offshore waters into tonight.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday] Generally IFR-MVFR cigs and vsbys this
morning will lift to MVFR-VFR this afternoon as showers exit the
area from west to east.

&&

.Hydrology...
A coastal low pressure system tomorrow is forecast to produce a
widespread total of 1.5-2.5" of rain across the forecast area.
No flooding is forecast, however, these totals will cause rises
along our area rivers and bring several sites along the
Kinchafoonee Creek and the Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, Aucilla,
and Upper Withlacoochee Rivers into action stage. The
Withlacoochee River at Valdosta is likely to crest near minor
flood stage by the end of the week and could reach a higher and
earlier peak if rainfall totals end up being higher than currently
forecast.

&&

.Prev Discussion [429 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
The main focus will be on Wednesday`s system. A vigorous upper
level shortwave will allow for an area of low pressure to move
along the Gulf coast. Unfortunately, the 00z NAM and GFS actually
diverged in their track forecasts tonight with the NAM a northern
outlier and the GFS a southern outlier compared to the rest of the
guidance suite. If the NAM were to verify, then the warm sector
would move inland enough for a risk of severe storms. A track in
between the two extremes seems most likely with the warm sector
limited to near the coast and offshore. Given the expectation of a
strong low level jet and strong deep layer shear, it would not be
surprising to see a strong to severe squall line sweep across the
coastal waters and near the coast Wednesday afternoon and evening.
For most of the land area, expect to see moderate to occasionally
heavy stratiform rain with some embedded non-severe thunderstorms
possible given some elevated instability. However, given the
uncertainty with the low track and the very strong shear values
expected, the SPC day 2 outlook places a marginal risk of severe
storms across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia.
Expect clearing with dry weather returning on Thursday.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The upper flow along the Gulf Coast is forecast to return to a
zonal configuration pretty quickly behind Wednesday`s system,
keeping the bulk of the arctic air confined well north of the
area. Should see a warming trend kick in by the weekend as heights
begin to rise and high temperatures reach back into the mid to
upper 60s. A chance of showers could return by the weekend, but
currently do not see any additional significant systems through
Tuesday.


.Marine...
Conditions will remain below headline levels until Wednesday, when
winds and seas will increase ahead of a low pressure system moving
across the Gulf of Mexico. After this system exits on Thursday,
strong high pressure is expected to build over New England with
moderate to strong east to northeast winds across the coastal
waters this weekend.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days, with rain expected through Thursday morning.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   58  46  55  44  56 /  60  20 100  90  10
Panama City   57  47  56  44  54 /  30  30 100  90  10
Dothan        54  41  46  38  52 /  70  20 100  80  10
Albany        53  41  48  39  51 /  80  20 100  90  10
Valdosta      55  44  55  44  56 / 100  20 100 100  10
Cross City    63  50  64  53  60 /  30  20  70  90  20
Apalachicola  60  50  61  47  57 /  20  30  90  90  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...MOORE






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