Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
530 FXUS62 KTAE 250239 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1039 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
-- Changed Discussion --
The showers and storms have lingered a bit longer this evening than the past 2, but as we approach 11 pm EDT, only a few lone cells remain over the interior. The convection over the coastal waters appears to be a bit more active tonight due to the upper low which is pushing to the NE off the W coast of the FL Peninsula and the old boundary well to the SW of the FL Panhandle, so raised PoPs to 20% from 00 to 06 UTC, with the in place 30% PoPs from 06 to 12 UTC looking just right as the SW flow continues.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 00Z Saturday] All convection has diminished this evening. There is a possibility of brief and patchy light fog overnight at DHN, ABY and VLD. Then, the typical summertime scattered diurnal convection will develop during the afternoon hours with VCTS shown at the terminals.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Prev Discussion [318 PM EDT]...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... The trough that has been in place across the Southeastern US will continue to weaken and move eastward as high pressure builds across Southern Florida and westward into Texas. As ridging aloft gradually returns to our region, expect a downward trend in rain chances into the weekend. Still expect 30 to 40 percent rain chances on Friday with moderate southwesterly flow in place, though the departing trough should lead to less rain chances than on Thursday. By Saturday, ridging continues to slowly build across the region along with an increase in mid level dry air from the south. These two factors combined suggest lower storm coverage on Saturday. Additionally, temperatures will be on the rise with highs in the mid 90s inland and lower 90s along the coast. Expect max daily heat indices to top out in the 100 to 105 degree range as well. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... While initially, a typical summertime pattern will be in place across the Southern United States at the start of the period, expect the pattern to rapidly amplify by Monday as a large trough digs southward out of Canada. Some of the guidance suggests this trough will be strong enough to help push a cold front into and possibly past the forecast area on Tuesday delivering another brief but noticeable cool and dry period to the region through Wednesday. The upper pattern thereafter looks to stagnate with strong ridging building over the Rockies and across the Western North Atlantic keeping the deep trough in place from the Ohio Valley to the Northeastern Gulf. This will yield slightly cooler and less humid conditions by the end of the period with only modest rain chances. .Marine... High pressure will dominate the marine area through the weekend yielding light southwesterly flow. By Monday, an approaching frontal boundary will result in increasing southwesterly winds and building seas, perhaps approaching cautionary levels by Monday night into Tuesday. .Fire Weather... Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days, although dispersion values will be high this afternoon and Friday across a large portion of the area away from the immediate coast. .Hydrology... Afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms are expected, however heavy rain will be localized and should not have any impact on area rivers.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 73 93 73 94 74 / 30 30 10 30 10 Panama City 77 90 76 90 76 / 20 30 10 30 10 Dothan 73 92 73 93 74 / 30 40 20 30 10 Albany 73 93 74 94 74 / 30 40 20 30 10 Valdosta 72 95 72 96 73 / 30 40 20 30 10 Cross City 74 93 72 94 72 / 30 40 10 30 10 Apalachicola 77 90 75 90 75 / 20 30 10 20 10
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...WESTON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.