Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 130131
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
931 PM EDT Sun May 12 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
High pressure currently situated over the Nebraska/Missouri border
will continue to move southeast over the next 24 hours. A second
dry cold front will move southeastward, clearing the Big Bend
region by early tomorrow morning. Cold air advection will ensue behind
the cold frontal passage, allowing for unseasonably cool
temperatures with lows in the upper 40s north of I-10 and low to
mid 50s elsewhere. Except for a few lingering high clouds, the
rest of tonight should be dry and generally clear with light winds
out of the NW.
.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Wednesday]...
The very dry airmass will allow temps to warm quickly after
sunrise. However, temps will still be below normal peaking in the
upper 70s to around 80 degrees. All in all, it should be a very
pleasant day. The deep upper-level trof pushing the cold front
through today will lay over the mid- Atlantic states by Monday
night and an upper level ridge will be building eastward over our
area through the period. High pressure at the surface and aloft
through the period will give us clear skies. Monday night will be
a little chilly with lots of radiational cooling allowed from the
clear skies in addition to the presence of a much colder air mass.
Lows will dip into the mid-upper 40s across the region. Tuesday
the clear skies will allow us to warm up again to the low 80s.
Lows Tuesday night will be in the 50s and highs Wednesday will be
in the low-mid 80s.
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]...
Although models are showing upper level ridging at 300 mb that stays
in place through the period, they also show a mid-level short wave
impulse at 500 mb that will propagate through the weak ridging. This
may cause some convection this weekend, particularly during daytime
hours with solar heating to aid it, but the models are not showing
high rain chances overall this weekend, with PoPs highest on
Saturday and Sunday during the day with values <30%. Temperatures
will be about normal for this time of year.
.AVIATION [Beginning 01Z Monday]...
VFR conditions will continue through the Full Taf Cycle, with BKN
Cirrus eventually giving way to Sct clouds and mostly clear skies.
The main aviation impacts on Monday are still expected to be gusty
northerly winds behind a dry cold front which should diminish
Behind the dry cold front passage, the pressure gradient will
increase and winds will pick up to marginal advisory levels over
the coastal waters from north to south overnight. Waves will
increase to as high as 5 feet offshore. Winds will begin to settle
down to cautionary levels from north to south through Monday
morning through Monday night and after that, winds and seas will
remain below advisory level for the rest of the period.
A drier air mass has arrived behind a cold front across all but
southern and eastern portions of the FL Big Bend. However, red flag
criteria will not be threatened. On Monday, red flag conditions are
definitely a possibility across a few of our FL zones, namely Bay,
Calhoun, Leon and Wakulla. It will definitely be dry enough with min
RH getting into the upper teens and lower 20s. Winds will be
marginal, but observed ERC levels are high enough in the
aforementioned counties. We will mention these caveats in the
remarks, but winds are too marginal to go with a watch or warning at
this time. Red flag conditions are unlikely in Alabama and Georgia
due to insufficient KBDI and fuel moisture requirements respectively.
Rainfall totals on Saturday were minuscule, so we don`t expect any
hydrology issues for the next several days.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 51 80 44 81 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 57 79 57 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 48 78 50 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 48 78 47 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 51 77 46 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 55 81 46 81 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 57 78 54 77 61 / 10 0 0 0 0
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Monday for Waters
from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.