Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 030209
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
909 PM EST Sun Mar 2 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
-- Changed Discussion --The airmass across the forecast area will continue to moisten and
warm through the overnight hours as onshore flow continues ahead
of an approaching cold front. Expect to see fog develop across
most of the area by midnight as dewpoints and temperatures meet in
the lower to mid 50s. Best chances for dense fog will be along the
Panhandle coast and the I-75 corridor. However, confidence in
widespread dense fog in these areas is not high enough to go with
a dense fog advisory at this time. A few showers may approach SE
Alabama by morning ahead of the aforementioned front. However,
believe the 20 percent PoPs currently in the forecast is still
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-- Changed Discussion --[Through 00Z Tuesday] VFR conditions prevail this evening as
light southerly flow continues to bring more low level moisture
back into the region. Expect low ceilings to develop overnight,
especially after 08z with IFR conditions likely. Increasing
southerly flow should limit visibility restrictions. Cloud decks
should only slowly rise throughout the day into the MVFR range.
Light rain will accompany a cold front that passes through the
region on Monday afternoon/evening. Expect VFR conditions behind
the front but this should not occur at the TAF sites (except DHN)
until after 00z Tuesday.
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.Prev Discussion [412 PM EST]...
-- Changed Discussion --.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
As the main shortwave rolls through the Mississippi Valley
overnight, it will phase up with a strong cold front thereby
enhancing the mid and low level jets. The increased dynamics of
the system will help organize convection in the Deep South, along
the front by Monday morning. As the cold front reaches our Alabama
and Florida Panhandle counties however, the elongated area of low
pressure will consolidate over the Mid-Atlantic region as lee
cyclogenesis pulls the system north out of our local area. Thus,
the weakening low level convergence will allow the southern
extension of the frontal system to weaken as it passes through the
Tri-State region. Further, weak instability will also limit ascent
as the system moves through the region. Though a rumble of thunder
or two certainly cannot be ruled out, severe weather is not
expected with this front. Rainfall totals will likely remain below
a half of an inch for most spots, with very isolated higher
amounts near an inch possible across southeast Alabama and our
extreme northern Georgia counties.
The front will stall out across the northern Gulf on Tuesday
morning, though another shortwave forecast to move into the
Southeast on Tuesday afternoon will likely bring another round of
rain late in the day Tuesday, into Tuesday evening.
Expect a sharp northwest to southeast temperature gradient
tomorrow, with middle and upper 70s along and southeast of a line
from Valdosta to Panama City. Northwest of that line, temperatures
will decrease into the lower 60s across southeast Alabama. On
Tuesday, a cold surface wedge will back into our Georgia and
Alabama counties, cutting off any afternoon mixing and capping
temperatures in the middle 50s (possibly a bit lower). These
temperatures will combine with the rain to yield an abnormally
cold and rainy March afternoon. South of the Florida state line,
temperatures should climb into the middle 60s.
Overnight lows will be coldest on Monday night in the immediate
wake of the cold front, with mid 30s across southeast Alabama,
warming to near 50 across the southeast Big Bend.
.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The main focus in the extended range will be on Thursday as a very
dynamic frontal system moves into the northeast Gulf. Strong Gulf
cyclogenesis will place a mature surface low somewhere along the
Panhandle coast by Thursday morning. Extremely impressive low and
deep layer shear values will be more than enough to warrant a
credible severe weather threat. The main uncertainty with this
system will be the exact position of the low and associated jets,
as well as the uncertain instability forecast. There have been
considerable model differences both model-to-model and run-to-run
with respect to the ultimate position of the low making it hard to
really make a sound prediction at this time. The only thing the
guidance can agree upon is the just how dynamic the system will
be. Therefore, the entire Tri-State region (especially north
Florida) should keep a close eye on the developing forecast over
the next couple of days.
Low winds and seas will increase behind a cold front on Monday
afternoon. Winds and seas will then taper back off until Thursday
when a strong low pressure will increase winds and seas to
advisory levels late in the week.
Moisture will continue to gradually increase tonight and more
rapidly on Monday as the next cold front crosses the area. In the
wake of the front, the airmass will dry out moderately on Tuesday
but RH will remain well above red flag levels each day.
Rain chances will increase once again from Wednesday through
Thursday when significant rainfall is expected to douse fuels. Red
flag conditions are not expected through the rest of the work week.
All area river points were below flood stage and were generally
receding from recent rains. Some additional rainfall is possible
on Monday, but amounts should not be enough to cause significant
rises on any of the rivers. More substantial rainfall is possible
later in the week (Thursday-Friday).
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.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 55 75 43 65 44 / 0 50 20 20 30
Panama City 60 67 43 61 46 / 10 50 10 30 40
Dothan 54 61 38 55 41 / 10 70 10 30 30
Albany 53 66 40 51 39 / 0 70 10 20 30
Valdosta 51 78 43 59 43 / 0 50 30 20 30
Cross City 52 78 51 70 47 / 0 20 20 20 20
Apalachicola 60 70 46 62 48 / 0 40 10 30 40