Area Forecast Discussion
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617
FXUS62 KTAE 230551
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
151 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A mid-upper level low was centered near New Orleans early this
morning, and was slowly retrograding west. This has enabled the
500mb heights on the TAE sounding to rise about 20m in the past 24
hours (through 00Z). The slowly rising heights and negative
vorticity advection aloft are expected to aid in suppressing
convective activity today. Additionally, a channel of drier
mid-level air has pushed into parts of the area, to the east of the
mid-upper level low, which is confirmed by the 00Z TAE sounding and
GOES blended total PWAT product. Despite these negative factors for
convection, both convection-allowing and global models do show some
development by this afternoon - particularly along the sea breeze
and near a favored convergence zone near the Apalachicola River.
However, model forecast QPF is quite low, so any showers or storms
that do develop should be quite isolated. Therefore, PoPs are well
below climatology (15-25% range) but we have still indicated the
possibility of a few showers and storms in the forecast. High
temperatures should be in the mid-90s with plenty of sunshine.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The GFS and ECMWF finally dissipate the cutoff low to our west
tonight, but then carve out a long wave trough over much of the
eastern CONUS over the later part of the work week. The 00 UTC GFS
solution predicts somewhat greater deep layer moisture than the 12
UTC ECMWF, and their corresponding MOS PoPs reflect this difference.
Our forecast is blend of the two solutions, with a little more
weight toward the GFS (given that this is climatologically our
wettest time of year). The resulting PoP forecast is in the 30-40%
range, which is still slightly below climo values. With below-climo
PoPs/clouds comes warm high temperatures, with highs in the mid 90s
(upper 80s beaches). As one might expect this time of year, there
doesn`t appear to be a significant threat for organized severe
storms due  primarily to weak winds aloft.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The region will be dominated by high pressure at the sfc and an
upper level ridge through Sunday. As a result, expect only a slight
chance for afternoon/evening rain and thunderstorms. Late Monday an
upper level trough moves in and increases afternoon/evening precip
chances for the remainder of the forecast period. A stationary
boundary is expected to linger over the area Tuesday and Wednesday.
In addition to the increased rain chance expect abundant cloud
cover. Expect lows in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Thursday] VFR conditions initially may be
interrupted by some patchy fog around sunrise, with MVFR VIS
possible. The patchy fog appears most likely at DHN, ABY, and TLH,
although any of the terminals could be affected briefly. After
that, VFR conditions will prevail. Some isolated thunderstorms may
develop in the afternoon, but coverage was too low to mention in
the TAFs...except at TLH where VCTS was included after 19Z.

&&

.Marine...

Winds will generally be from the southwest around 10 KT through this
weekend, except for an increase to 10 to 15 KT near the coast during
the late afternoon and evening hours from strong daytime heating.
Significant wave heights will be mainly 2 ft or less.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected this week despite some slightly
drier weather (in terms of rain chances).

&&

.Hydrology...

Given the expectation of only isolated to scattered thunderstorms
through Friday, it`s unlikely that flash flooding or river
flooding will occur.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  73  93  74  93 /  30   0  30  20  30
Panama City   90  76  89  77  89 /  20   0  30  20  30
Dothan        93  72  92  73  93 /  20   0  40  20  30
Albany        95  73  93  74  93 /  20  10  40  20  30
Valdosta      97  72  95  73  93 /  20   0  30  20  40
Cross City    94  73  92  72  92 /  30   0  30  20  30
Apalachicola  89  77  89  77  88 /  20   0  30  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER







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