Area Forecast Discussion
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171
FXUS62 KTAE 170253
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1053 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Current fcst is well on track very few tweaks were needed.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Monday] VFR conditions will prevail through much of
the overnight hours with the potential for MVFR vsbys at TLH/VLD.
TSRA development expected offshore of Panama City around sunrise
with storms moving in vicinity through midday. In the afternoon,
storm development should focus toward TLH/VLD in SW flow, so
vicinity groups used at these sites after 18z/20z respectively.

&&

.Prev Discussion [245 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
With low level high pressure and generally zonal flow aloft, the
sea-breeze will take over. Forecast 1000-700 mb flow is forecast to
be from the west-southwest at around 10 knots both days, making them
borderline regime 4/regime 5 days. A dry airmass in place will keep
PoPs slightly lower than normal for these usually very wet patterns
for our area. Highs will be in the mid 90s, low 90s near the
coastline, lows will be in the mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Stacked high pressure through the period will allow the sea-breeze
circulation will once again become the main driving force for our
local weather. With a drier than normal airmass in place, chances
will be somewhat lower than climo and temperatures will be slightly
warmer than climo. Highs will be in the mid 90s, low 90s along the
immediate coast, and lows will be in the mid 70s, upper 70s along
the immediate coast.


.Marine...
With high pressure over the northern Gulf for most of the period,
winds will generally be from the west-southwest at 10 knots or less,
with surges along the coastline to about 15 knots in the evenings.
Waves will stay in the 1 to 2 feet range through the period.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. The
lack of significant, widespread rain the next few days will continue
to allow fuels and soil moisture to dry.


.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals through Monday are expected to range from

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  94  75  95  76 /  10  40  10  30  10
Panama City   78  89  78  90  78 /  30  50  20  30  20
Dothan        72  94  74  94  74 /  10  40  10  30  20
Albany        71  95  75  94  74 /  10  20  20  30  20
Valdosta      71  97  73  97  74 /  10  20  10  30  10
Cross City    74  93  74  93  74 /  20  30  10  30  10
Apalachicola  77  89  77  90  77 /  30  40  20  30  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER/LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN






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