Area Forecast Discussion
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711 FXUS62 KTAE 161950 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 350 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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After the lull this morning, activity had picked up with thunderstorms moving south from the northwest. The cold front located in central Alabama and Georgia will push through our area tonight. Showers will linger through the evening with clearing by early morning. There is plenty of moisture in the atmosphere and the 12Z sounding had a PWAT of 2.29 inches, which is 138 percent above normal. Heavy rainfall is possible and should storms stall, low lying areas could see flooding. .Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... A weak frontal boundary will move through the region on Wednesday bringing some much needed drier air to the region, though very little in the way of cooler air. As this drier air overspreads the region through Thursday, expect rain chances to drop to near zero with partly cloudy skies. High temperatures generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s can be expected, though the big story will be the drop in humidity. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... By Friday, the mid level pattern begins to stagnate as models show an upper low cutting off across Northeastern Florida as a weak ridge builds across the Mid Atlantic States. This type of pattern will keep partly to mostly skies in place through the weekend with moderate easterly flow. Low end rain chances can be expected, especially across the eastern portions of the region. Late Sunday and into Monday the pattern across the CONUS becomes highly amplified with a deepening trough across the Eastern US and a large ridge across the western states. As this pattern amplifies, the models diverge in whether a cold front will make its way into the Gulf Coast States and possibly beyond. The 16/12z Euro stalls the boundary across our region as the main mid and upper level support lifts out into New England whereas the 16/00z and 16/12z GFS had some degree of frontal passage late in the period. Climatology in late September would argue against a front clearing the forecast area, so will lean closer on a solution supported by the latest Euro for late in the period.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Wednesday] MVFR conditions this afternoon at all terminals with ceilings between 1000 to 2500 feet. Brief periods of IFR visibilities are possible during thunderstorms. Mentioned fog at ABY, DHN and VLD near sunrise. Confidence of IFR conditions and fog is highest at VLD. After sunrise VFR at all terminals.
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&& .Marine...
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After a brief increase in winds this afternoon, relatively light winds are expected across the marine area through the remainder of the week. Winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate levels on Saturday as high pressure builds down the Atlantic seaboard.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Soil moisture and relative humidity will be high this week, keeping red flag concerns at a minimum.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Slow moving storms will continue to deliver locally heavy rainfall across the region through today. Localized rainfall amounts of 3 to 4 inches could cause minor flooding of low lying areas. This rainfall will cause some rises of the smaller creeks and streams, though all rivers should remain well below flood stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 70 91 69 91 68 / 50 10 10 10 10 Panama City 74 91 71 90 70 / 50 10 10 10 10 Dothan 69 90 65 88 65 / 30 10 10 10 10 Albany 69 91 66 88 65 / 40 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 69 90 66 91 66 / 60 20 10 10 10 Cross City 70 89 70 92 69 / 60 50 10 10 10 Apalachicola 73 87 74 88 73 / 50 20 10 10 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...WESTON SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...WESTON MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...WESTON HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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