Area Forecast Discussion
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475 FXUS62 KTAE 121340 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 940 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
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WITH A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRANSLATING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST, A STALLED SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION, AND EVEN SOME SUBTLE JET STREAK COUPLING ALOFT - THE FORECAST FOR TODAY INCLUDES "LIKELY" RAIN CHANCES OF 60-70% OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE DETAILS WITH A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. IN GENERAL, VERTICAL MOTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND EVIDENCE OF THIS TREND (AS OF 07 UTC) IS CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR COASTAL LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN. MANY HI-RES MODELS DEVELOP SOME BANDS OF STEADY RAIN NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST BY 12 UTC, FILLING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18 UTC. PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON IS THEN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, AND WILL BE TIED TO THE DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IN THE MORNING. RIGHT NOW, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE THAT MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA, MAKING GREATER INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA (EAST OF ABY-TLH) AND PERHAPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES WAS KEPT SOMEWHAT VAGUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES ALREADY DISCUSSED. TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED SATELLITE AND THE EXPECTATION OF A SOMEWHAT RAINY DAY.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [651 AM EDT]...
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.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]... THROUGH TUESDAY, THE TRI-STATE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A VERY DISTURBED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, THE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY WITH BROAD TROUGHING TAKING OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TWO SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, ONE ON MONDAY AND ONE ON TUESDAY. THESE WAVES WILL LINK UP WITH ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND THE 300K WINDOW AND RESULT IN SOME WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EACH DAY. TUESDAY MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ONLY BECAUSE THE LOWER LEVEL ASCENT WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH AS ISENTROPIC SURFACES EASE A BIT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. NONETHELESS, THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO FORCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO COME BY ON MONDAY, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER INCREASES INTO TUESDAY AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES ADVECT IN ALOFT. HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANCES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. .LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]... WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE YET ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS A RATHER POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM ANOMALY LINKS UP WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WE`LL STILL HANG ON TO ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES TO FINISH THE WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN THE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY FEATURE SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. .AVIATION... [THROUGH 12Z MONDAY] CIGS AND VIS HAVE CONTINUED TO FLUCTUATE THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH AROUND 14 UTC. AT THAT TIME, RAIN SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR OR VFR RANGE AT MOST TERMINALS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON; RIGHT NOW THUNDER SEEMS MOST LIKELY AT ABY AND VLD BETWEEN 18 UTC AND 00 UTC. RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH CIGS ONCE AGAIN LOWERING INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE OVERNIGHT. .MARINE... IN GENERAL, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. .FIRE WEATHER... A MOIST AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON REMAINING ABOVE 60 PERCENT. THERE SHOULD BE A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. EVEN THOUGH A WETTING RAIN MAY NOT BE LIKELY EACH DAY, MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A WETTING RAIN SOMETIME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. .HYDROLOGY... ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH AVERAGE TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...HIGHEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH CONVECTION...LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. THESE AMOUNTS MAY FORCE SOME RIVERS INTO ACTION OR EVEN MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 81 69 77 69 81 / 60 60 70 50 60 PANAMA CITY 77 71 76 72 78 / 70 60 60 50 50 DOTHAN 76 67 76 68 81 / 60 70 80 60 60 ALBANY 77 66 77 67 81 / 60 60 80 60 70 VALDOSTA 78 67 78 67 82 / 60 50 80 50 70 CROSS CITY 83 69 79 70 81 / 60 30 70 50 50 APALACHICOLA 79 72 76 72 78 / 60 50 60 50 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT/LAMERS SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...DVD

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