Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 210126

826 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A light freeze is still on track for most areas east of the river.
Clouds and light onshore flow will help to keep overnight minimum
temps in the mid to upper 30s across the inland portions of the
Florida panhandle and southwest Alabama.

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A weakening cold front will approach the area during the latter
half of the weekend, bringing an increasing chance of showers on
Sunday, mainly to the northwestern half of the area. Instability
may be just high enough to support a slight chance of a
thunderstorm across the northwest half, but with weak dynamics,
severe weather is not expected. A temporary but significant warm-
up is likely ahead of the front, with highs in the mid 60s to near
70 on Saturday and the mid 70s on Sunday.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The long term period will begin with a decaying frontal system
limping into our forecast area as the parent low pushes off the
northeast CONUS. As this upper low departs, our part of the county
will be left in nearly zonal flow aloft. The global guidance is in
good agreement through at least Wednesday with cloudy skies, near-
to-below normal temperatures, and chances for rain. The rain
chances will be forced by several small shortwaves as they move
east in the relatively quick 500mb flow.

The GFS and Euro begin to diverge Wednesday night as the GFS
forecasts a stronger shortwave to move along the 500mb flow and
push the stationary front to our south into Thursday morning.
What this would mean for our area is drier conditions, but a
return to below-normal temperatures. The Euro is slower and less
aggressive with this shortwave and would keep our area cloudy with
near-to-below normal temps. For this package, we followed our
normal long-term consensus blend which yielded near normal
temperatures through the period and low chances for rain after



[Through 00Z Sunday] VFR conditions with CIGS around 50kft
through the TAF cycle. Light winds tonight will become southeast
at 10-14 knots with gusts of 15-20 knots on Saturday.



As high pressure moves east of the area and a cold front
approaches, southeast winds are expected to increase to advisory
levels tonight into Saturday across most of the area. As the front
weakens, winds will diminish below advisory levels for Sunday.


.Fire Weather...

Onshore flow will increase humidity levels substantially beginning
on Saturday with red flag conditions not expected in the near



A round of light rain is possible early next week, but totals will
be too low to cause significant rises on our area rivers.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  68  52  75  54 /   0   0  10  20  20
Panama City   42  67  58  70  54 /   0  10  20  30  20
Dothan        36  67  54  72  47 /   0  10  30  60  40
Albany        32  66  51  74  48 /   0  10  20  50  40
Valdosta      33  69  50  75  53 /   0   0  10  20  30
Cross City    32  70  49  77  54 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  42  65  57  70  56 /   0   0  10  20  20


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through late Saturday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     RIP CURRENT RISK through Saturday evening for Coastal Franklin.

     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM CST Saturday for South Walton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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