Area Forecast Discussion
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950 FXUS62 KTAE 120136 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 836 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A surface high pressure system near southeastern Missouri is bringing northwesterly flow and cool, dry conditions to the region. Winds will remain light and northwesterly tonight with below average temperatures in the lower 30s. Areas of frost are possible overnight.
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&& .Aviation [Through 00Z Saturday]...
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Wildfire smoke from Walton county may impact KECP. VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period.
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&& .Prev Discussion [311 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... At the surface, high pressure will be anchored over the Kentucky/Tennessee region continuing the trend of northerly flow and cool dry air. Despite sunny skies highs are expected to be in the lower 60s on Friday and low to mid 60s on Saturday. Lows will be in the lower 30s Friday night and low to mid 30s Saturday night. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... An upper level ridge will move east across the area on Sunday. An upper low will then lift from the Central Plains northeast across the Ohio or Tennessee Valleys. The Euro is taking the more southern route. This is the more energetic solution for us with respect to the sensible weather that will be associated with the system`s cold front that will sweep across the region on Tuesday. This will mainly impact rainfall coverage. For now, we have low chances (30 percent) for showers from late Monday night through Tuesday. Temps will gradually moderate to slightly above normal levels from Monday through Tuesday. The cold front will be pretty weak only settling temps back to seasonal levels from Wednesday through Thursday. .Marine... Winds will generally be out of the north into the weekend as high pressure holds in place northwest of the waters. Winds may occasionally reach 15 knots during the overnight hours. Winds will weaken late in the weekend as high pressure builds over the waters before turning onshore early next week. Southwest winds will increase to near 15 knots ahead of the next cold front on Tuesday. .Fire Weather... RH values will be near critical values Friday afternoon. However, other factors are not supportive of red flag conditions. Fair and dry weather will continue through the weekend. .Hydrology... With all rivers below action stage and no rain expected through Monday, there are no flooding concerns. The next chance for rain will come Monday night and Tuesday.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 31 62 33 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 40 62 43 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 34 60 35 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 31 60 33 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 31 60 33 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 32 63 31 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 38 61 40 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION... MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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