Area Forecast Discussion
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649 FXUS62 KTAE 160152 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 852 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Very few changes made to the inherited forecast, as it largely seemed on track. Low-level clouds will be on the increase overnight in the eastern half of the area with E-SE flow, and that should help keep temperatures milder in those areas. Temperatures were nudged down slightly in the northwest third of our area where clear skies are most likely - into the 36-39 degree range.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Monday] Stratus should build in overnight from the east into VLD, TLH, and possibly ABY. CIGS would likely be in the MVFR range. The stratus will scatter out tomorrow morning with VFR conditions expected through 00Z in the evening.
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&& .Prev Discussion [339 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... Temperatures will moderate on Sunday as onshore flow increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect to see high temperatures range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area. Clouds and deep moisture will increase quickly late Sunday into Sunday night as low pressure develops along the central Gulf Coast ahead of a strong shortwave digging into the Southern Plains. While a large area of rain is expected to develop along and ahead of the front, uncertainty remains concerning the potential for a few strong to severe storms along the Gulf Coast Monday morning. Kinematically, the shear is forecast to be sufficient with deep layer shear of 50-60kt and low-level shear of at least 30kt. The main question will be the recovery of the low-level airmass from its current cool and rather dry state. All of the available guidance agrees that there will be a narrow band of surface-based instability near the Gulf Coast Monday morning as dewpoints recover into the mid 60s. The available convection-allowing guidance is a bit more bullish with the instability, indicating 1000-1500j/kg of CAPE generally along and south of I-10. This instability coupled with the expected shear could would certainly support a few strong to severe storms along and ahead of the cold front. Will need to continue to monitor this situation through the weekend. The front will cross the forecast area during the day on Monday, with the slower timing of the ECMWF/NAM/Canadian preferred over the faster GFS. Precip should end from west to east by late afternoon/evening with much colder air moving into the region behind the front on northwesterly winds. Temperatures by Tuesday morning will range from the upper 20s in the northwest to the upper 30s in the southeastern Big Bend. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... Arctic high pressure will plunge towards the Gulf coast on Tuesday behind the exiting cold front. Temperatures will remain well below normal through at least Thursday. Highs on Tuesday will likely only reach the 40s to lower 50s, warming to the lower to mid 50s on Wednesday and the upper 50s to lower 60s on Thursday. Overnight lows will be 20 to 25 degrees below normal Wednesday and Thursday mornings as the center of the high pressure becomes ideally situated over the forecast area for strong radiational cooling. The current forecast has lows in the lower to mid 20s (near or below current records) away from the coast Wednesday morning. Even these values may be a bit warm, with some guidance calling for even lower values. Thursday morning lows may be a bit warming with values in the upper 20s to around 30. A slow warmup should begin by late in the week as the airmass modifies and allows temperatures to approach normal values once again. .Marine... Easterly winds tonight and early Sunday will become southeasterly and then southerly Sunday night while increasing to exercise caution levels. Advisory level conditions are expected on Monday just ahead of a strong cold front as well as behind the front as winds shift to the northwest. Strong offshore flow will continue into Tuesday before diminishing into Wednesday as high pressure builds over the waters. .Fire Weather... Relatively high RH is expected the next couple days with a wetting rain expected on Monday. Dry air will arrive behind the cold front by Tuesday and linger through the middle of the week. Red flag conditions may be possible behind the front, but are far from certain at this point. .Hydrology... Sunday night and monday rainfall amounts will generally be between
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 44 72 60 73 35 / 10 10 30 80 10 Panama City 48 70 63 69 36 / 0 10 60 80 10 Dothan 38 68 59 64 29 / 0 10 70 80 10 Albany 40 70 58 68 31 / 10 10 50 80 20 Valdosta 44 72 57 73 35 / 10 10 20 80 50 Cross City 48 76 58 75 39 / 10 10 10 70 50 Apalachicola 50 68 64 74 38 / 10 10 40 80 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EST tonight for Coastal Gulf. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...CAMP

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