Area Forecast Discussion
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904 FXUS62 KTAE 142039 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 439 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A few showers or thunderstorms could linger into the evening hours across parts of the Florida Big Bend, eastern Panhandle and extreme SE sections of south central GA. Otherwise, any convective re-development will shift towards the coastal waters and the far SE Big Bend overnight where plenty of deep layer moisture remains in place. The latest PWATs from the GOES Blended TPW product (as mentioned in this morning`s discussion) still shows a wide discrepancy in deep layer moisture from N-NW to SE across the CWA, with extremely dry air for this time of year further to the north across central and northern AL and GA. Over our area, estimates range from just under an inch over Quitman county GA to 2.16" over Dixie county FL, with plenty of additional Tropical moisture in the northern Gulf of Mexico. .Short Term [Friday through Saturday Night]... In general, deep layer westerly flow - particularly in the 700-300mb layer - will create gradual dry air advection and establish a slow decreasing trend in precipitable water across the area through much of the period. PWATs should be significantly below normal in northwest parts of the area, where rain is not expected. To the southeast, in the Florida Big Bend, PWATs should be closer to normal and those locations will still be in the region of greater moisture ahead of the quasi-stationary surface front. Therefore, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible, mainly along and southeast of a line from PAM-TLH-VLD. With less cloud cover and less rain, Friday and Saturday could be warmer than recent days with widespread mid-90s for highs. An increase in PWATs doesn`t seem likely to occur until later Saturday Night, so an appreciable increase in rain chances shouldn`t occur until the long term period. .Long Term [Sunday through Thursday]... Upper level flow will become zonal for the extended period. Southwest winds will bring moisture from the Gulf and scattered rain chances, typical for this time of year. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions should prevail at the terminals through much of the upcoming period. A tstm will still be possible at TLH and VLD this afternoon, which may allow for some MVFR Vis to form at these locations overnight. Otherwise, just sct CU and CI with light winds are expected for the remainder of the time and other Taf locations.
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&& .Marine...
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A relatively weak pressure pattern should keep winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less for the foreseeable future.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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The Tri-State region will be bisected northeast to southwest over the next few days by a front dividing dry air to the north and more saturated conditions to the south. However, even in the driest locations relative humidity levels should remain above critical levels precluding any hazardous fire weather conditions.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Heavy rainfall will be localized and not widespread. With all area rivers below bank full stage flooding is not a concern.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 74 94 73 96 73 / 20 20 10 20 10 Panama City 79 91 76 92 77 / 10 20 10 20 10 Dothan 69 95 71 96 73 / 0 10 10 10 10 Albany 70 95 70 96 73 / 10 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 71 95 70 97 72 / 20 30 10 20 10 Cross City 75 91 73 90 72 / 30 40 30 40 20 Apalachicola 78 89 76 90 77 / 10 30 20 20 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...GOULD/HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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