Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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775 FXUS62 KTAE 131413 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1013 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
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FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING FOR A RAINY DAY. A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER W TX WILL SLOWLY LIFT NEWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK WARM FRONT BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE ISN`T MUCH INSTABILITY PRESENT, BUT STORMS TODAY MAY STILL HAVE ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO FEED THESE SHOWERS. SATELLITE PWAT ESTIMATES ARE SHOWING PWATS IN THE SERN CONUS TO BE ABOUT 200% OF NORMAL. THE TAE 12Z SOUNDING HAD A PWAT OF 1.71, WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE. THESE STORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN VERY SLOW MOVING TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST STORM OUT OVER THE WATER PRODUCING RAIN RATES AROUND 5"/HOUR. WITH THE INGREDIENTS PRESENT FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND FLOODING YESTERDAY IN THE FL PANHANDLE, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE FL PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY] SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY WITH RAIN BEING HEAVY AT TIMES. MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL HANG IN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BRIEF, DETERIORATING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES EXCEPT ECP.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [406 AM EDT]...
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.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL OPEN UP AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF COAST REGION UNDER WSW UPPER FLOW WITH RIPPLES OF ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. A SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE SETTLING BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PWAT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY AFTER SEEING WHAT THIS RATHER INNOCUOUS PATTERN PRODUCED OVER IN JACKSON COUNTY FL OVERNIGHT. BROAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-2.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY TO ALBANY WITH TOTALS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW FOR MUCH OF LAST WEEK. HOWEVER, THEY WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING SOME 15-18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. .LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]... THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE A TENDENCY FOR RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO GENERALLY BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST STATES. TIMING INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES IN THE EL NINO-INDUCED FAST UPPER FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE TRICKY, SO WHILE DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR, A CONSENSUS FOR HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS AND TEMPS CONTINUES. .MARINE... OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. .FIRE WEATHER... RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD STAY HIGH. .HYDROLOGY... EXCEPTIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY AND ADJACENT AREAS. EOX AND TLH RADAR BOTH SHOW A BROAD AREA WITH AT LEAST 2-3" ACCUMULATIONS, AND MAXIMUM VALUES AS HIGH AS 11" NEAR COTTONDALE AS OF 07 UTC. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A PUBLIC REPORT OF AROUND 11" IN THAT SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY AND INTO THE WEEK WILL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES IN SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON WHERE HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN AND/OR STORMS SET UP. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WE ARE EXPECTING A BROAD AVERAGE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS HIGH SHOULD CAUSE FLOWS TO INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW REACHING FLOOD STAGE. IN PARTICULAR, THE CHIPOLA RIVER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE BASIN.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 79 69 85 68 83 / 80 40 60 30 60 PANAMA CITY 76 71 80 70 78 / 80 50 60 40 60 DOTHAN 76 66 83 66 82 / 80 50 70 50 70 ALBANY 77 66 85 67 82 / 80 50 70 40 60 VALDOSTA 81 66 85 66 84 / 70 40 60 30 60 CROSS CITY 83 67 85 67 84 / 60 40 40 20 50 APALACHICOLA 77 73 82 72 81 / 60 40 50 30 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-HOLMES-INLAND BAY- JACKSON-NORTH WALTON-SOUTH WALTON-WASHINGTON. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...LAMERS

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