Area Forecast Discussion
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829
FXUS62 KTAE 261303
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
903 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
SOUTH OF MOBILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO SOME FAVORABLE JET COUPLING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
OVERLAPPING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LATITUDE
JET. THE CONSENSUS OF THE CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS CLUSTER
WILL CONTINUE ON AN EAST- NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY TODAY AND AFFECT
AREAS NEAR THE COAST AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF HIGH INSTABILITY LOCATED OFFSHORE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES ANALYZED OVER 3000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO
FAIRLY STEEP ACROSS THE AREA WITH VALUES NEAR 7C/KM OBSERVED ON
THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR. THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN EXCESS OF
34 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH...IN
ADDITION TO SOME HAIL. OUTSIDE OF THIS CLUSTER...MODERATE SOUTH
WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [650 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER...DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. IRONICALLY...THE ANNUAL
SPRINGTIME TALLAHASSEE FESTIVITIES SCHEDULED FOR SATURDAY WILL
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THE ONLY COOL DAYS IN MARCH. LOWS FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S AROUND DOTHAN...TO MID 60S AROUND
CROSS CITY...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST. IT WILL BE BREEZE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. LOWS
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY SATURDAY...AND THE MORE DIRECT SUN
ANGLE WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE IN THE SUN.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE DEEP LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EASTWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED UNTIL MID WEEK...WHEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE 00 UTC ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE FAR TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH
WOULD INDICATE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. THE GFS STILL
HAS THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT IS MUCH
WEAKER THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO AVERAGE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A
MODEST INCREASE MID WEEK.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY]...

OUTSIDE OF DHN AND VLD WHERE MVFR VIS IS STILL PRESENT, VFR LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
MORNING. BY VERY LATE THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON,
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION, AFFECTING THE TERMINALS WITH
GUSTY WINDS, REDUCED VISIBILITIES (MAINLY MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR),
AND LOWERING CIGS WHICH WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT
AND TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW BEHIND IT, ESPECIALLY
AT DHN, ECP, AND ABY TOWARDS 12Z. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING MVFR
LEVEL CIGS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS FRONT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, AND EVEN WITH DRIER AIR COMING
IN BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WERE TO DROP
LOW ENOUGH AND THE WIND SPEEDS WERE TO REMAIN ELEVATED, ERC VALUES
WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LOW ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE RECENT
RAINFALL FOR ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. BY SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THE AIR
MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY, AND DEPENDING ON OTHER CRITICAL
PARAMETERS, RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BECOME POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA, AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

NEARLY ALL OF THE RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS
MORNING. WE EXPECT GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST.
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE
MAJOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS PREDICTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   79  63  69  40  65 /  60  70  40  10  10
PANAMA CITY   74  60  66  47  62 /  70  70  30   0  10
DOTHAN        78  53  64  40  62 /  60  70  20   0  10
ALBANY        79  57  65  39  61 /  50  70  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      80  62  68  41  62 /  50  70  60  10  10
CROSS CITY    83  66  73  44  66 /  50  60  80  10  10
APALACHICOLA  76  64  70  46  63 /  70  70  40   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...DVD/FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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