Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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333 FXUS62 KTAE 132016 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 416 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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THE RAINY DAY WILL CONTINUE WITH A N-S ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS IN CENTRAL MS/SRN LA IS HEADING EWARD WITH A E-W ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST FROM NEW ORLEANS TO PANAMA CITY WHICH HAS BEEN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. OUR PANHANDLE ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OUR NRN ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE NOT AS HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN OUR AL/GA ZONES. THINGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LIGHTEN UP AFTER SUNSET FOR OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY THE PRESENCE OF RAIN AND HEAVY CLOUD COVER, PEAKING IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY AND ONLY COOLING TO THE UPPER 60S-AROUND 70 OVERNIGHT. .SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND RAINY IN MOST AREAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAIN AND BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO SOME AREAS. THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, AND THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE POTENTIAL FLOODING. EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. .LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]... THE UNSETTLED TREND CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN WE WILL FINALLY BREAK OUT OF THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. THE GFS HAS A SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH AND BREAK US OUT OF THE PATTERN ON SATURDAY, BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS US LOCKED IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE`LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE MODELS AS NEW RUNS BECOME AVAILABLE.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] EXTENSIVE LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPACT ECP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CEILINGS ELSEWHERE HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR OR VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER A LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 14Z WHEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY 18Z TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD STAY HIGH.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT AFFECTED JACKSON COUNTY WITH TOTALS AS HIGH AS 11" NEAR COTTONDALE WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE RECEIVING AROUND 2-3". TODAY, WE`VE BEEN FORTUNATE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE SO FAR BEEN OFFSHORE, BUT THE NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD THEY MOVE ASHORE. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8 PM EST TONIGHT FOR THE FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL. IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING, OUR RIVERS STARTED THIS EVENT AT PARTICULARLY LOW LEVELS, SO NO FLOODING IS FORECAST FROM THE RAINFALL AT THIS TIME, THOUGH A FEW RIVER SITES MAY RISE TO ACTION STAGE AS A RESULT OF THIS RAINFALL.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 68 85 69 84 68 / 30 40 30 60 40 PANAMA CITY 71 79 72 78 70 / 40 40 50 60 40 DOTHAN 66 83 67 81 65 / 60 60 60 70 50 ALBANY 66 84 67 82 65 / 50 60 40 70 50 VALDOSTA 67 84 66 84 67 / 30 50 20 60 50 CROSS CITY 68 85 67 85 68 / 30 30 20 40 40 APALACHICOLA 72 82 73 81 71 / 30 30 30 60 30
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN-CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-HOLMES-INLAND BAY- JACKSON-NORTH WALTON-SOUTH WALTON-WASHINGTON. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD/WESTON LONG TERM...MERRIFIELD/WESTON AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...WESTON FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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